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Re: Duly noted Isaac Send a noteboard - 12/03/2013 02:04:05 AM

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View original postIn regard to MacArthur as mentioned I was only discussing his specific relationship with Truman in regards to him being sacked. Like I said, neither of them rates as wonderful people in book, nor villains. Ask my opinion on Ike or Nimitz and you'll get general solid approval though not hero worship or ignorance of his failings. To me they are historical figures, and I assume all historical figures bare only minimal relation to the real people they were based on.


View original postWell, that is the thing, I do not see any way Truman could avoid relieving MacArthur AND preserve US democracy. If a general already wildly popular at home and abroad can overrule an unpopular president and dictate foreign policy to him, it will not be long before he is dictating domestic policy as well, and decides to formally replace de jure civilian "authority" with de facto military authority. Truman was strategically correct; I am just not sure avoiding the current Korean situation, or even the Cold War (and if Truman goes into China before the Soviet split we end up fighting them, too, though by that time we would probably have them in a vicious pincer they have NEVER faced) would have been worth the cost of American fascism.

I am not going to rehash history of that era with you, it isn't relevant to the matter at hand, I think I made that fairly obvious already


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View original postChina cannot afford to stand aside in any armed conflict between the US and any East Asian nation, especially in Korea. The geographic and historic context would send precisely the wrong message to the world, the US, the ASEAN and Chinas own people. I keep drawing the parallel between the Korean Conflict and the Cuban Missile Crisis, but that really does not work, simply because the Soviet Union had not run roughshod over the US throughout the Americas for an entire century before that. Even if North Korea were not three minutes by missile from Beijing, letting the US dictate policy in Chinas backyard would almost automatically reinstate the Open Door Policy, which China cannot allow.


View original postChina would obviously have to get involved in some fashion but an actual war on that peninsula would last days not years. That's not a lot of time to decide the fate of your nation.




View original postFurther clarification: A peninsular war with Korea would last days, or one with China? I agree China would not have long to decide whether to defend North Korea if we attacked, but also expect they would do so in under five minutes (not hyperbole.) They might have no choice; again, Beijing is only three minutes from North Korea by Teapodong-2. I just cannot see them allowing even a "temporary" US (or allied South Korean) occupation of North Korea; it would be hard to imagine even without the Century of Humiliation and Chinas current nationalism and economic resurgence, but with all those things together? No way.

"but an actual war on that peninsula would last days not years.", I'm talking about a war between Koreas, an open conflict between the US and China is another situation. We have a major edge in conventional war, and they know it, but I don't read tea leaves. As to your suggestion they'd be afraid N Korea would nuke their capital or threaten to, in order to force them in as an ally, I never underestimate the apparent craziness of that country but 'fight with us and die or die' isn't a very good card to play to court allies. If they went along China would essentially be forced to gamble the US would absorb/eliminate NK nukes and still be in a mood to negotiate a cease fire with them afterward and while they were still in some sort of position to recover. They might tell NK to go to hell or call us and warn us or attack NK themselves or they might wade in a token fashion or a genuine fashion. Like I said, I don't read tea leaves.


View original postChina has always, or at least since around the birth of Christ, considered Korea one of its provinces. It has often been so in all but name, and Imperial Japan combined with the Wests prostration of China is the only reason maps have not reflected that since the Nineteenth Century. It is to Japan and China what Alsace and the Saar are to France and Germany, or Poland to Russia and Germany. I imagine you already know all this, but that is the basis of my perspective here, or at least part of it. Also throw in the Opium Wars, Open Door, Taiwan, our growing economic competiton and Chinese youth whose government has told them for a generation the US has no business meddling it their internal affairs (read: All of Southeast Asia.)

And throw in their generals telling them that we'll sink their fleet in days and blow every plane from the sky and cutoff every pipeline and tanker and freighter while bombing the fuck out of every base they have and that the nuclear situation isn't favorable to them either. I've no idea what they'd do, odds are they don't know what they'd do, but injured pride doesn't tend to result in ordering an attack on your vastly superior enemy who is also close friends with most of the other big boys and notoriously vengeful and militant.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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