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I would like it noted I responded to you before you responded to me. Joel Send a noteboard - 09/03/2013 11:40:18 PM

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View original postnods You know my opinion on it, too, and who is the 800 lb. gorilla in the corner for every conversation about North Korea. We could roll over that impoverished bomb crater in less time than it took to shatter Iraqs military, but how would—MUST—China react?

China's actions if hostilities flared with N. Korea are hardly irrelevant but they are not the main problem, nor are N. Korea's nukes. N. Korea has 12,000 artillery pieces, many of which can range Seoul, a place with around 25 million people living in it at population densities that make it nigh impossible for a shot not to kill at least several people. Even the most barely trained crew can line up a shot that will hit in that area and shove multiple shots out per minute. Several thousand artillery pieces firing are essentially dropping a nuke per volley, except nukes aren't as deadly in terms of raw explosive yield as a parallel artillery strike.

It isn't fear of China or a nuclear war that keeps us, or S. Korea on its own, from pounding N. Korea flat. S. Korea could kick the shit out N. Korea on its own. It is that even if everything goes perfectly with planning and implementing a first strike without them getting a whiff of it, you still need to kill 99% of their guns practically simultaneously just to have a hope of keeping your civilian death toll to 9/11 figures. Just to give an idea here, a lone artillery battery, just 6 guns, could do horrible things to any city in mere minutes, they've got 2000 times that many.


South Korea, or at least Seoul, may be screwed no matter what. If war is inevitable it really does not matter to them which side starts it: Either way, the first half hour would leave Seoul looking like Stalingrad ca. 1943. Again, MacArthur was right and Truman wrong (strategically, not legally,) and you know I would not say that unless I meant it, because it is about as pleasant as sawing off a limb.

It may come down to whether 1) China has the influence and desire to restrain North Korea forever and 2) South Korea knows that. However, that also assumes 1) China realizes its long term strategic goals are better served by contesting global hegemony by economic rather than military means and 2) North Korea does not decide nuclear weapons means it no longer need heed China.

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Again? Didn't they "tear up the armistice" a few years ago? - 08/03/2013 10:49:59 PM 579 Views
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Not to diminish the role of China in this but you're bypassing the actual issue - 09/03/2013 11:26:18 PM 608 Views
I would like it noted I responded to you before you responded to me. - 09/03/2013 11:40:18 PM 700 Views
Duly noted - 10/03/2013 01:03:59 AM 693 Views
Re: Duly noted - 11/03/2013 06:14:59 PM 625 Views
Re: Duly noted - 11/03/2013 07:05:17 PM 668 Views
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One word: evacuation. - 10/03/2013 03:22:42 AM 559 Views
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