Active Users:1190 Time:22/11/2024 01:30:13 PM
He's still there because Syria has become a proxy war. Tom Send a noteboard - 07/03/2013 05:58:13 PM

It started as an uprising, but only the dimmest bulbs in the foreign policy sphere could see it as anything but a major proxy war for all the major players in the region. In a best case scenario for people in the region, after Assad falls the major players come to a new status quo and back off of confrontation.

The more likely scenario, however, sees the Syrian civil war spread to a new Lebanese civil war and a full-fledged Iraqi civil war, with the possibility of a general war in the region if Iran gets too directly involved in the latter. The intra-regional split is Sunni-Shia, and has been a long time coming. The inter-regional split is the US/West backing the Saudis, Qataris and Turks (Sunni power brokers as Egypt is in turmoil), and Russia/China backing Iran and Hizbullah (the Shia power brokers now that Assad has no ability to project power even within much of Syria, much less beyond its borders). The inter-regional tensions are unlikely to lead to World War III, but the intra-regional tensions are very likely to see continuing "wars of religion" that make the European conflicts of the same name seem tame, because there is no unified will at the great power level to see a particular result imposed on the region from without.

So, sure, let's play the Pope game.

Political correctness is the pettiest form of casuistry.

ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius

Ummaka qinnassa nīk!

*MySmiley*
Reply to message
Let's start a guessing thread on when Hugo Chavez dies. - 05/03/2013 03:55:44 AM 1168 Views
He is like his cancer - Everytime you think he is a goner he comes back... - 05/03/2013 04:04:14 AM 744 Views
No, they brought him home from Cuba to die. - 05/03/2013 04:58:24 AM 822 Views
Re: Let's start a guessing thread on when Hugo Chavez dies. - 05/03/2013 03:49:16 PM 760 Views
Okay, so we've got the 13th, 14th and 22nd so far... *NM* - 05/03/2013 05:55:48 PM 392 Views
to be fair.... - 05/03/2013 08:53:30 PM 824 Views
Let's go for my dad's birthday. March 20 *NM* - 05/03/2013 07:17:00 PM 349 Views
March 7th. - 05/03/2013 08:07:37 PM 743 Views
I'll go with April 1st - 05/03/2013 09:10:44 PM 905 Views
Does this mean I win? - 05/03/2013 10:00:20 PM 1213 Views
He's rumored to have died earlier today (March 5th)... - 05/03/2013 10:01:42 PM 679 Views
He didn't even have the decency... - 05/03/2013 10:11:46 PM 741 Views
Should we just switch to his successor? - 05/03/2013 10:34:38 PM 785 Views
The immediate successor will be Maduro. - 05/03/2013 11:36:46 PM 805 Views
Ooo, I know this one: The first Monday in October! - 06/03/2013 01:15:58 AM 713 Views
A week ago, probably *NM* - 06/03/2013 01:16:27 AM 375 Views
Well. That didn't take long. *NM* - 06/03/2013 05:47:35 PM 346 Views
Less than 24 hours after the thing was posted...not much time to take bets. But you won. - 06/03/2013 06:07:14 PM 777 Views
Re: Less than 24 hours after the thing was posted...not much time to take bets. But you won. - 06/03/2013 09:44:01 PM 801 Views
Maybe we should try a harder one. - 07/03/2013 01:49:36 AM 748 Views
Or... - 07/03/2013 04:02:10 AM 726 Views
He's still there because Syria has become a proxy war. - 07/03/2013 05:58:13 PM 713 Views

Reply to Message