Yes, I have a good idea of what 7% margin of error means; it means the sample size permits confidence of accuracy to no less than 7%. The LDS cited 6.5% total is well within that range.

However, the Pew figure is unquestionably more OBJECTIVE than the Mormons self-reported numbers, whether or not it is more accurate.

One obvious possible explanation of why their figure is lower is that they probably only counted enrolled membership, perhaps only that regularly attending services, while the Pew survey counts everyone who self-identifies as Mormon irrespective of their official membership or activity.


Extrapolating from a low turnout caucus to a low turnout presidential race. Neither party is enthusiastic about its candidate, though IMHO Republicans are more enthusiastic about defeating Obama than Democrats are about defeating Romney. Most Democrats seem to feel Romney more embarrassing than threatening.


What "expert" would that be? The one who quoted 2008 caucus turnout as 2012 turnout? What "experts" claim the Mormon vote does not have a large impact on NV elections? Every knowledgeable source I have seen comment on that says just the opposite.

Unless other voters greatly outnumber Republicans (an odd contention when arguing NV is a swing state) the caucus effect will only diminish, not disappear, in the general election. It may only be about half what it was in the GOP-only caucus, but, based on the energetic 2008 caucus' 25% Mormon turnout, that would be about 12.5% (based on this years low turnout caucus it would be 15%.) If Obama had not won NV by such a big margin (12%) in 2008 this would not even be worth debating, but even so, 1) Obama was much more popular then and 2) the GOP nominee was not Mormon.

Unless you can cite an "expert" with evidence Democratic turnout will be as energetic as 2008 (or anything but lethargic) I will continue believing high Mormon enthusiasm for Romney will be an insurmountable problem for Obama in AZ, NV and probably even CO (though the biggest problem in the last is that no one outside metro Denver can stand Obama.) You may continue believing you know more about my countrys politics than I, but our respective records do not support that belief. A week ago I said Romney would come out of Super Tuesday with "close to 300 more delegates," which is about 68.5% of the total; the WSJ says he actually won 63% of delegates they project (51 are still unprojected, 19 in states Romney won, but most will eventually be his.) I stand, as always, on my record.