I'm backing Romney currently but let me point out some stuff
Isaac Send a noteboard - 30/01/2012 12:18:41 AM
First big one, the poll is utterly meaningless, because of this at the end:
"The survey of 737 registered voters, taken Tuesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points."
1) Registered voters is a better gage then 'people', but republicans simply vote with higher frequency then independents or democrats.
2) It's not really a 5% error, because if you're going to look at 12 'battleground states' its only logical to look at them individually. For instance, did Santorum pick up Pennsylvania, his home state? That would be a big deal. Of course, had they sampled 737 votes broken equally by 12 states we'd have about 60 people per state, and the margins on that are huge.
So this isn't really a useful poll, it's just Gallup and USA today wanting a quick cheap one someone can right an article about. I also kinda find it silly to run polling on anything but specific upcoming states mid-primary because they know, like I know, that a single thin victory in one state can flip 5 or 10 points in the next one... also Gallup's polls were horribly off in 2008 primaries so I don't really trust them. Just for perspective, here was the polling this time four years ago, RCP Average
Poll Date McCain Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul Thompson Spread
RCP Average 1/29/2008 26.7 20.0 18.7 13.3 5.2 -- McCain +6.7
And that was just when McCain was starting to pick up steam and Thompson had dropped out.
"The survey of 737 registered voters, taken Tuesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points."
1) Registered voters is a better gage then 'people', but republicans simply vote with higher frequency then independents or democrats.
2) It's not really a 5% error, because if you're going to look at 12 'battleground states' its only logical to look at them individually. For instance, did Santorum pick up Pennsylvania, his home state? That would be a big deal. Of course, had they sampled 737 votes broken equally by 12 states we'd have about 60 people per state, and the margins on that are huge.
So this isn't really a useful poll, it's just Gallup and USA today wanting a quick cheap one someone can right an article about. I also kinda find it silly to run polling on anything but specific upcoming states mid-primary because they know, like I know, that a single thin victory in one state can flip 5 or 10 points in the next one... also Gallup's polls were horribly off in 2008 primaries so I don't really trust them. Just for perspective, here was the polling this time four years ago, RCP Average
Poll Date McCain Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul Thompson Spread
RCP Average 1/29/2008 26.7 20.0 18.7 13.3 5.2 -- McCain +6.7
And that was just when McCain was starting to pick up steam and Thompson had dropped out.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
For those still wondering why the Republicans need to nominate Romney.....
29/01/2012 11:25:25 PM
- 970 Views
That's of swing states only.
29/01/2012 11:37:48 PM
- 689 Views
Well, we can assume that most other states will stay Red or Blue as usual.....
29/01/2012 11:58:25 PM
- 530 Views
Assumptions are rarely a wise decision making method. *NM*
30/01/2012 04:21:23 AM
- 262 Views
In this case they're a pretty good measure.
30/01/2012 02:09:30 PM
- 516 Views
The general predictability of our voting process kind of bothers me
30/01/2012 02:21:58 PM
- 613 Views
It's much the same elsewhere - just not as obvious because there's no electoral college.
30/01/2012 10:47:15 PM
- 635 Views
The French are doomed.
31/01/2012 12:32:46 AM
- 511 Views
And crazy. Did you see that Merkel is going to campaign in France for Sarkozy?
02/02/2012 12:02:55 AM
- 488 Views
I for one did not see that... surely that can't help his chances.
02/02/2012 06:33:56 PM
- 487 Views
That is one of the problems with focusing so much attention and national and presidential politics
01/02/2012 05:21:25 PM
- 599 Views
What about Massachusetts?
30/01/2012 03:55:46 PM
- 696 Views
If MA doesn't go to Obama, he may as well concede then and there. *NM*
30/01/2012 04:26:37 PM
- 236 Views
I'm backing Romney currently but let me point out some stuff
30/01/2012 12:18:41 AM
- 582 Views
Yeah, but if you looks at all of the other polls, this is pretty much in line.....
30/01/2012 12:32:36 AM
- 490 Views
Re: Yeah, but if you looks at all of the other polls, this is pretty much in line.....
30/01/2012 12:47:52 AM
- 551 Views
I do worry that the RINO hunters have done to much damage
02/02/2012 07:12:45 PM
- 515 Views
Traditionally vicious primaries don't do much damage
02/02/2012 08:03:33 PM
- 531 Views
Rubio does seem like a winner, but I'd be interested to hear why you consider Christie a bad choice.
02/02/2012 08:39:04 PM
- 505 Views
I don't think Christie could swing Jersey or will play as well on the national stage
02/02/2012 10:36:02 PM
- 537 Views
Romney has the best chance of winning against Obama, but he's also the most like him.
30/01/2012 12:20:26 AM
- 506 Views
It will be much better.....
30/01/2012 12:34:46 AM
- 611 Views
Your abuse of the ellipsis is starting to irritate me.
30/01/2012 04:28:04 AM
- 840 Views
Instead of ..... , I can end each sentence with a
or
30/01/2012 01:05:51 PM
- 590 Views


or you can just end it with a period. The usual method for ending a sentence.
30/01/2012 02:18:35 PM
- 492 Views
you are already getting 50% of what you want under obama
30/01/2012 08:04:57 AM
- 621 Views
I would love to hear you give details about this "50%" from Obama,,,,, *NM*
30/01/2012 01:04:25 PM
- 216 Views
I wouldn't rule out Paul's chances vs. Obama, either.
02/02/2012 12:00:45 AM
- 735 Views
If Ron Paul is the republican nominee, he will be the next President.
02/02/2012 12:24:22 AM
- 581 Views
First time voters don't make up 50% of the electorate.
02/02/2012 06:36:09 PM
- 441 Views
He might win Minnesota
02/02/2012 07:05:22 PM
- 611 Views
Like Ventura? I see your point. *NM*
02/02/2012 08:40:25 PM
- 201 Views
and the guy with a satallite dish on his head
02/02/2012 08:49:43 PM
- 546 Views

you should rule out Ron Paul's chances of winning anything beyond his congressional seat
02/02/2012 07:03:15 PM
- 591 Views