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Realistic. Joel Send a noteboard - 22/08/2011 11:21:38 PM
Obamas best hope, according to conventional wisdom and the actions of his re-election campaign, is that Perry's nominated,


Are you sure? I think Obama's best chances would be against a Bachmann/Palin ticket. Or are you talking about realistic hopes rather than truly the most favorable situation for him?

If the Republicans nominated the two craziest malaproping candidates they've got, and two WOMEN in a party that skews male, Obama would cruise, but the party leaders aren't that stupid and neither of them is that popular. Also, the more extreme right candidates there are the more they split that vote and help Romney.

Though in all fairness once Perrys novelty wears off and he makes a few more gaffes of his own I don't think any amount of help from Obama will nominate him; he's starting to look more like Romney with a drawl than Bush with Romneys hair. Flip flopping on trivial issues like whether Social Security is unconstitutional and whether gay marriage should be a state decision under the Tenth Amendment or banned by a NEW amendment is hard to top (though Romney flip flopping on equally trivial tax hikes in the space of a single DAY may do it). Once the Tea Party starts hearing that rather than just "supporting" Gore in '88 Perry actually ran his TX campaign, he'll be sunk. Plus, at the end of the day, Romney is still the favorite son of the party establishment, Wall Street and the banks (but I already said, "GOP establishment", didn't I? ) Whether or not being the favorite son of the LDS would put him over the top, that will.
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Re: At this point EVERYONE might be running. - 22/08/2011 11:03:39 PM 356 Views
Realistic. - 22/08/2011 11:21:38 PM 429 Views
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