Sure, Mid-Easterners are intelligent human beings; most of Iran is, much good as it does them under the mullahs. Unfortunately, the commentaries and analysis I've seen on the riots in Egypt (and, really, when you start burning buildings, terrorizing foreigners and throwing bombs you've crossed the line from "protester" to "rioter" ) all agree on two points:
Did you by any chance notice which buildings they torched, and which ones they formed human chains around to protect? Let me tell you, there's a rather obvious pattern to it.
So initiating violence is legitimate protest provided you choose the right target? I strongly disagree. You've compared this to the American Revolution; when John Adams defended the British soldiers involved in the Boston Massacre his fellow colonists had his strong sympathy, yet he passionately argued for the soldiers acquittal in part because nearly every witness agreed THOSE protesters hurled missiles at the soldiers long before anyone was shot. Thus he argued they had the right to defend themselves with force and that even a documented history of animosity between specific soldiers and specific slain protesters made it manslaughter at the most, not murder. You can't initiate violence then cry foul when it's resisted with superior violence.
2) If his government does topple it's almost a given the new government will be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.
In the short term, yes, probably. That's inconvenient to the world and rather more than just inconvenient for those which benefit hugely from cooperating with Mubarak's dictatorship, but it's an inconvenience that's more than worth it.
It's rather more than inconvenient to those likely to be brutally repressed, imprisoned, tortured and/or executed for being:
1) Women who won't wear a burka,
2) Egyptians more interested than Egypt than a pan-Islamic theocracy,
3) Non-Muslims,
4) Heterodox Muslims and
5) Westerners in Egypt
For them a Muslim Brotherhood government even you concede is probable means far more of what supposedly justifies Mubaraks violent overthrow.
The Egyptians know what happened in Iran, too. And you'll note the Muslim Brotherhood is supporting the protests, but most definitely not leading them. They may well be influential in any more or less democratic government following Mubarak's fall, but the Egyptian people won't stand for one dictatorship being replaced by another.
Time will likely tell. Yes, Egyptians know Irans history; that's part of why they so long endured Mubarak: Many feel the alternative to be at least as bad and probably worse. Until yesterday I'd seen no evidence they're wrong; now I've seen a single piece, but there's still more on the other side.
The Arabic world, or the (extended) Middle East in general really, has for the most part been under secular dictatorships ever since the colonial age ended, and under colonial rule before that. You can't expect their transitions to democracy to happen perfectly smoothly, but if you use that as an argument to prevent those transitions to democracy from ever occurring, well, that will only end up making them more desperate and more hellbent on either fleeing to the West, or attacking it out of frustration. Those transitions have to happen at some point; there will always be short-term interests that make it preferable for some to postpone them, but the long-term interests of having a democratic Middle East at some point in the future should not be underestimated. And hell, if the US was willing to start an expensive and bloody war to impose democracy in Iraq, you'd think it would be willing to allow it to happen on its own accord in Egypt (though then again, from what I've seen so far, Obama mostly IS willing, it's just you who aren't).
From what I'VE there's little reason to believe Egypt is transitioning to democracy, incrementally or otherwise. Before you condemn my opposition to something why don't we verify its actual existence, eh? Once again, I'm not saying I hope Mubaraks regime survives this, but that IF a successor regime would be far more authoritarian, brutal and insensitive to free expression and democracy, IF it would simply make sectarian violence in the streets with government sanction the norm, I hope Mubaraks regime averts that through survival, because the undeniable blood on his hands is less than his successors would have. I'd love a truly free and democratic Egpyt, consider it infinitely preferable to Mubarak, but am not sure that's on the table; there's more evidence it's a choice between the extent and leaders of continued brutal violence and repression. IF that assessment is wrong I'll be the first to cheer true democracy, but democracy is more than simply removing one tyrant in a country boiling with violent xenophobia. Even if I had a vote I wouldn't cast it for any of the contestants here because I'm not convinced any merit it.
Sure, not all Egyptians follow his corpse, but enough of them do to cause his imprisonment, just as the danger of him causing violent revolution was enough to get him executed. If you want to argue Egypt should've given Qutb and his student Iman Al Zawahiri fair trials before imprisoning them, I'll agree, but if you want to argue they'd make better Egyptian leaders than Mubarak simply because they can muster an electoral plurality I can't. Give me a reason to believe Mubarak isn't just the Shah all over again--in EVERY sense--and I might endorse what's happening in Egypt. The scale and extent of violence argue against that, as does the seemingly unanimous analyst view that removing Mubarak would simply install a government consisting of people who think violence against seemingly everyone not an orthodox (in their eyes) male Muslim is not only right but necessary.
If Mubarak is the Shah all over again - and the similarities are indeed large, even if there are significant differences as well - you would think you'd realize how dangerous it is to keep supporting him forever, while the oppressed people's resentment against both Mubarak and his foreign puppet masters keeps growing.
Sure I do, and so does Obama, hence he waffles and says little except that he supports the peoples right to protest, won't intervene and condemns the violence from both sides. Yet Obamas caution is no accident, and others would do well to emulate it. If this were simply democracy vs. despotism he'd long ago have been explicit and emphatic on the protesters behalf, and made clear to Mubarak that he should leave immediately because he'll no longer get US military hardware on which his regime depends. Instead, Obama and his State Dept. seem well aware that removing Mubarak won't automatically improve Egypt any more than removing the Shah or Saddam did Iran or Iraq. In case you missed it, I never supported attempts to impose democracy on Iraq, so it should hardly surprise you I wouldn't do it in Egypt. It's their country to run as they please, just one of the points on which I disagree with the leaders of the government likely to be running Egypt soon.
Yet, once again, as I can't stress enough, I do NOT endorse Mubarak, and wouldn't even if that endorsement carried weight. I endorse democracy over despotism where attainable, but elsewhere I support reduced oppression, violence and state sanctioned murder over expanded oppression, violence and state sanctioned murder. I suspect Egypt is being offered the latter choice, but can't be certain so no one gets even my largely meaningless vote.
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
This message last edited by Joel on 31/01/2011 at 01:28:27 AM
If anyone's looking for up-to-date info on what's going on in Egypt
28/01/2011 08:08:31 PM
- 624 Views
Clarify: Democracy fans should favor the protesters because they have more violent thugs,right?
28/01/2011 11:37:48 PM
- 475 Views
and socialism fans should favor the violent dicator since he can bring order and subsidies
29/01/2011 12:16:37 AM
- 341 Views
He mainly seems to bring close diplomatic ties to the US and alternatives to the Muslim Brotherhood
29/01/2011 12:59:48 AM
- 493 Views
You might want to do a quick check on the political situation in Egypt at this time.
29/01/2011 11:37:02 AM
- 407 Views
I've done a quick one; it makes me question whether government by the protesters would be better.
29/01/2011 11:44:10 PM
- 377 Views
It's a fairly simple matter, really.
29/01/2011 11:52:41 AM
- 416 Views
The trouble with free elections is: They're free.
29/01/2011 11:53:22 PM
- 327 Views
A vote for dictatorship and against democracy it is. Just checking.
30/01/2011 12:08:41 AM
- 367 Views
I haven't cast a vote.
30/01/2011 02:02:11 AM
- 346 Views
Not one that counts no, but still.
30/01/2011 01:11:59 PM
- 813 Views
None of any kind.
31/01/2011 12:10:07 AM
- 388 Views
so you support tyranny of others if it makes things more comfortable for you?
30/01/2011 05:15:01 AM
- 388 Views
I oppose brutal oppression; I'm unconvinced either side in this will end it, thus I withhold support
30/01/2011 05:21:37 AM
- 332 Views
some times it is black and white
31/01/2011 12:37:36 AM
- 330 Views
I fully support their right to demand democracy; I don't expect they'll get it, whatever happens.
31/01/2011 01:45:23 AM
- 528 Views
You're not seriously expecting them to do their revolution American Revolution-style, are you?
29/01/2011 11:28:31 AM
- 392 Views
I think terrorizing innocents and torching buildings is a poor way to claim the moral highground.
29/01/2011 11:32:19 PM
- 394 Views
British Colonialism wasn't a walk in the park
30/01/2011 03:53:58 AM
- 347 Views
Comparatively speaking, yes, it really was. Or at least in the US - not always so much in Asia.
30/01/2011 10:42:53 AM
- 336 Views
Re: Comparatively speaking, yes, it really was. Or at least in the US - not always so much in Asia.
30/01/2011 02:32:52 PM
- 390 Views
You can't be serious.
30/01/2011 03:07:18 PM
- 325 Views
Pretty serious
30/01/2011 04:52:24 PM
- 481 Views
Re: Pretty serious
30/01/2011 05:11:50 PM
- 376 Views
This is ridicolous
30/01/2011 05:31:31 PM
- 436 Views
I wouldn't normally think this necessary with you, but okay: let's go back and see what I said.
30/01/2011 06:34:09 PM
- 406 Views
you forget that it was supposdely thier own citizens the British were abusing.
31/01/2011 12:39:33 AM
- 429 Views
Sure, but organized into hostile armies. A rather different matter, that. *NM*
31/01/2011 09:46:25 PM
- 149 Views
I dont know if this will help you understand what is going on there
30/01/2011 02:45:41 AM
- 363 Views
Yikes indeed
29/01/2011 03:57:25 AM
- 388 Views
Apparently Egypt blocked access to Facebook, Twitter and some other websites.
29/01/2011 11:38:46 AM
- 348 Views
Heh, her update was basically "Thanks for turning facebook back on, Egypt."
29/01/2011 06:36:49 PM
- 306 Views
There seems to be some big misconceptions about the Egyption crisis
31/01/2011 11:52:37 PM
- 624 Views