Community Messageboard: Not one that counts no, but still. by Legolas

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Not one that counts no, but still. Legolas Send a noteboard - 30/01/2011 01:11:59 PM

Sure, Mid-Easterners are intelligent human beings; most of Iran is, much good as it does them under the mullahs. Unfortunately, the commentaries and analysis I've seen on the riots in Egypt (and, really, when you start burning buildings, terrorizing foreigners and throwing bombs you've crossed the line from "protester" to "rioter" ) all agree on two points:

Did you by any chance notice which buildings they torched, and which ones they formed human chains around to protect? Let me tell you, there's a rather obvious pattern to it.

2) If his government does topple it's almost a given the new government will be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.

In the short term, yes, probably. That's inconvenient to the world and rather more than just inconvenient for those which benefit hugely from cooperating with Mubarak's dictatorship, but it's an inconvenience that's more than worth it. The Egyptians know what happened in Iran, too. And you'll note the Muslim Brotherhood is supporting the protests, but most definitely not leading them. They may well be influential in any more or less democratic government following Mubarak's fall, but the Egyptian people won't stand for one dictatorship being replaced by another.

The Arabic world, or the (extended) Middle East in general really, has for the most part been under secular dictatorships ever since the colonial age ended, and under colonial rule before that. You can't expect their transitions to democracy to happen perfectly smoothly, but if you use that as an argument to prevent those transitions to democracy from ever occurring, well, that will only end up making them more desperate and more hellbent on either fleeing to the West, or attacking it out of frustration. Those transitions have to happen at some point; there will always be short-term interests that make it preferable for some to postpone them, but the long-term interests of having a democratic Middle East at some point in the future should not be underestimated. And hell, if the US was willing to start an expensive and bloody war to impose democracy in Iraq, you'd think it would be willing to allow it to happen on its own accord in Egypt (though then again, from what I've seen so far, Obama mostly IS willing, it's just you who aren't).

Sure, not all Egyptians follow his corpse, but enough of them do to cause his imprisonment, just as the danger of him causing violent revolution was enough to get him executed. If you want to argue Egypt should've given Qutb and his student Iman Al Zawahiri fair trials before imprisoning them, I'll agree, but if you want to argue they'd make better Egyptian leaders than Mubarak simply because they can muster an electoral plurality I can't. Give me a reason to believe Mubarak isn't just the Shah all over again--in EVERY sense--and I might endorse what's happening in Egypt. The scale and extent of violence argue against that, as does the seemingly unanimous analyst view that removing Mubarak would simply install a government consisting of people who think violence against seemingly everyone not an orthodox (in their eyes) male Muslim is not only right but necessary.

If Mubarak is the Shah all over again - and the similarities are indeed large, even if there are significant differences as well - you would think you'd realize how dangerous it is to keep supporting him forever, while the oppressed people's resentment against both Mubarak and his foreign puppet masters keeps growing.

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If anyone's looking for up-to-date info on what's going on in Egypt beetnemesis - 28/01/2011 08:08:31 PM 624 Views

I've been following it on the BBC website. Nebhead - 28/01/2011 09:49:47 PM 358 Views

Clarify: Democracy fans should favor the protesters because they have more violent thugs,right? Joel - 28/01/2011 11:37:48 PM 475 Views

and socialism fans should favor the violent dicator since he can bring order and subsidies random thoughts - 29/01/2011 12:16:37 AM 342 Views

He mainly seems to bring close diplomatic ties to the US and alternatives to the Muslim Brotherhood Joel - 29/01/2011 12:59:48 AM 494 Views

You might want to do a quick check on the political situation in Egypt at this time. Rebekah - 29/01/2011 11:37:02 AM 407 Views

I've done a quick one; it makes me question whether government by the protesters would be better. Joel - 29/01/2011 11:44:10 PM 377 Views

They're not saying "We want to rule". Rebekah - 30/01/2011 01:26:03 AM 389 Views

SOMEONE is going to rule. Joel - 30/01/2011 02:16:43 AM 412 Views

It's a fairly simple matter, really. Legolas - 29/01/2011 11:52:41 AM 416 Views

The trouble with free elections is: They're free. Joel - 29/01/2011 11:53:22 PM 327 Views

A vote for dictatorship and against democracy it is. Just checking. Legolas - 30/01/2011 12:08:41 AM 367 Views

I haven't cast a vote. Joel - 30/01/2011 02:02:11 AM 346 Views

Not one that counts no, but still. Legolas - 30/01/2011 01:11:59 PM 814 Views

None of any kind. Joel - 31/01/2011 12:10:07 AM 388 Views

Since I'm clearly a glutton for punishment... Legolas - 01/02/2011 06:49:38 PM 738 Views

Re: Since I'm clearly a glutton for punishment... Joel - 04/02/2011 11:38:10 PM 502 Views

so you support tyranny of others if it makes things more comfortable for you? random thoughts - 30/01/2011 05:15:01 AM 388 Views

I oppose brutal oppression; I'm unconvinced either side in this will end it, thus I withhold support Joel - 30/01/2011 05:21:37 AM 332 Views

some times it is black and white random thoughts - 31/01/2011 12:37:36 AM 330 Views

I fully support their right to demand democracy; I don't expect they'll get it, whatever happens. Joel - 31/01/2011 01:45:23 AM 528 Views

You're not seriously expecting them to do their revolution American Revolution-style, are you? Legolas - 29/01/2011 11:28:31 AM 392 Views

I think terrorizing innocents and torching buildings is a poor way to claim the moral highground. Joel - 29/01/2011 11:32:19 PM 394 Views

British Colonialism wasn't a walk in the park Isaac - 30/01/2011 03:53:58 AM 347 Views

Comparatively speaking, yes, it really was. Or at least in the US - not always so much in Asia. Legolas - 30/01/2011 10:42:53 AM 336 Views

Re: Comparatively speaking, yes, it really was. Or at least in the US - not always so much in Asia. Isaac - 30/01/2011 02:32:52 PM 391 Views

You can't be serious. Legolas - 30/01/2011 03:07:18 PM 325 Views

Pretty serious Isaac - 30/01/2011 04:52:24 PM 482 Views

Re: Pretty serious Legolas - 30/01/2011 05:11:50 PM 376 Views

This is ridicolous Isaac - 30/01/2011 05:31:31 PM 436 Views

I wouldn't normally think this necessary with you, but okay: let's go back and see what I said. Legolas - 30/01/2011 06:34:09 PM 407 Views

you forget that it was supposdely thier own citizens the British were abusing. random thoughts - 31/01/2011 12:39:33 AM 429 Views

Sure, but organized into hostile armies. A rather different matter, that. *NM* Legolas - 31/01/2011 09:46:25 PM 149 Views

true random thoughts - 31/01/2011 10:04:38 PM 338 Views

Your comparison is very odd Larry - 30/01/2011 04:38:16 PM 418 Views

Why? Isaac - 30/01/2011 05:02:47 PM 368 Views

I dont know if this will help you understand what is going on there Aisha - 30/01/2011 02:45:41 AM 363 Views

I never called anyone an animal. Joel - 30/01/2011 04:50:12 AM 451 Views

Yikes indeed Darth_Katie - 29/01/2011 03:57:25 AM 388 Views

Apparently Egypt blocked access to Facebook, Twitter and some other websites. Rebekah - 29/01/2011 11:38:46 AM 348 Views

Heh, her update was basically "Thanks for turning facebook back on, Egypt." Darth_Katie - 29/01/2011 06:36:49 PM 306 Views

There seems to be some big misconceptions about the Egyption crisis Variant - 31/01/2011 11:52:37 PM 624 Views

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<quote id="188421">
<quote id="188371">Sure, Mid-Easterners are intelligent human beings; most of Iran is, much good as it does them under the mullahs.  Unfortunately, the commentaries and analysis I've seen on the riots in Egypt (and, really, when you start burning buildings, terrorizing foreigners and throwing bombs you've crossed the line from "protester" to "rioter" ) all agree on two points:</quote>
Did you by any chance notice which buildings they torched, and which ones they formed human chains around to protect? Let me tell you, there's a rather obvious pattern to it. 
<quote id="188371">2) If his government does topple it's almost a given the new government will be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.</quote>
In the short term, yes, probably. That's inconvenient to the world and rather more than just inconvenient for those which benefit hugely from cooperating with Mubarak's dictatorship, but it's an inconvenience that's more than worth it. The Egyptians know what happened in Iran, too. And you'll note the Muslim Brotherhood is supporting the protests, but most definitely not leading them. They may well be influential in any more or less democratic government following Mubarak's fall, but the Egyptian people won't stand for one dictatorship being replaced by another.

The Arabic world, or the (extended) Middle East in general really, has for the most part been under secular dictatorships ever since the colonial age ended, and under colonial rule before that. You can't expect their transitions to democracy to happen perfectly smoothly, but if you use that as an argument to prevent those transitions to democracy from ever occurring, well, that will only end up making them more desperate and more hellbent on either fleeing to the West, or attacking it out of frustration. Those transitions have to happen at some point; there will always be short-term interests that make it preferable for some to postpone them, but the long-term interests of having a democratic Middle East at some point in the future should not be underestimated. And hell, if the US was willing to start an expensive and bloody war to impose democracy in Iraq, you'd think it would be willing to allow it to happen on its own accord in Egypt (though then again, from what I've seen so far, Obama mostly IS willing, it's just you who aren't). 
<quote id="188371">Sure, not all Egyptians follow his corpse, but enough of them do to cause his imprisonment, just as the danger of him causing violent revolution was enough to get him executed.  If you want to argue Egypt should've given Qutb and his student Iman Al Zawahiri fair trials before imprisoning them, I'll agree, but if you want to argue they'd make better Egyptian leaders than Mubarak simply because they can muster an electoral plurality I can't.  Give me a reason to believe Mubarak isn't just the Shah all over again--in EVERY sense--and I might endorse what's happening in Egypt.  The scale and extent of violence argue against that, as does the seemingly unanimous analyst view that removing Mubarak would simply install a government consisting of people who think violence against seemingly everyone not an orthodox (in their eyes) male Muslim is not only right but necessary.  </quote>
If Mubarak is the Shah all over again - and the similarities are indeed large, even if there are significant differences as well - you would think you'd realize how dangerous it is to keep supporting him forever, while the oppressed people's resentment against both Mubarak and his foreign puppet masters keeps growing. 
</quote>

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