Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe.
Joel Send a noteboard - 23/11/2010 07:32:17 PM
It's only when the generation that remembers the Long March is out of power that the Korean situation could be peacefully resolved as the result of Chinese intervention, and then only if the people in charge of the PLA see that their greed would be hindered by a war on the Korean peninsula. Until those two prerequisites are met, I do not see a peaceful resolution of the situation that would have any pretense of being a long-term solution.
Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?
The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.
Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?
The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.
Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
A catspaw is always more useful than a proxy, after all; the former can be left to twist in the wind once they've done your dirty work, and it costs you nothing. Same reason I think it's so absurd that the West is so credulous about North Korea suddenly developing:
1) A nuclear engineering cadre capable of producing nuclear weapons,
2) the technical equipment necessary to process the materials,
3) the uranium ore to enrich by that means,
4) the missile technology necessary to deliver it to the other side of the Pacific and
5) the iridium and other rare metals necessary to construct such missiles
all out of the blue. I mean, sure, China and Russia may have armed them during the Korean Non-War, but SURELY that's not still going on (despite the fact that it's an open secret Pakistan got the bomb from China, which appears quite willing to provide unstable and/or radical governments with nuclear weapons in the interest of geopolitics and personal wealth).
It's ALL about plausible deniability: North Korea can hold South Korea, Japan and, very soon, even CA hostage, and even it all goes to hell and a nuclear exchange occurs Chinas biggest worry is that the wind might shift inland and carry some fallout their way. Meanwhile, the home of 1/6 of America, and much of our technological base, will be glow in the dark glass, and Japan will likely be caught up in the colateral damage (drawing in still more of the US military fervently hoping AEGIS is as good as advertised). They won't even have to make excuses for Kim anymore, they can just cut him loose with no remaining option except an all or nothing impossible to win war, then wring their hands and weep crocodile tears over what the foolish Koreans and Americans have done to each other and their allies.
I see little hope the younger generation, more thoroughly indoctrinated with nationalism than their parents (which is saying a lot in China) and conditioned by the response to Tiananmen to view all dissent as treason, moderates or reconciles. In fact, that may BE the best long term hope, that the younger generation is so convinced of Chinas superiority and ascendancy that they'll force the issue too soon, before victory is as certain as they've been taught. But for now, hell, since Nixon infamously went to China (great Commie fighter that he was), "what incentive do they have?" remains very much the question. Right now they can continue doing as they always have and we'll continue shipping them all our industry in exchange for more debt.
I am so SICK of people committing suicide by default because action is so scary. Seems inescapable anymore though, hence my frustration and disgust.
EDIT: I nearly forgot, but what role do you think Britain might play in the seemingly inevitable conflict? I don't think India could resist the "Peoples" Army long (though the casualties on both sides would be hideous, even in a conventional war) but I see no way for the UK to stay out of that conflict, and then it really is WWIII. Could be a great day to be a Russian, with the rest of Europe and the US facing off against China in a MAD war. I'd hate to be PM if China uses Pakistan against India the same way it's used North Korea against South Korea....
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Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
This message last edited by Joel on 23/11/2010 at 07:48:27 PM
North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it?
23/11/2010 10:56:03 AM
- 1363 Views
"Oh God, Oh God, we are all going to die?"
23/11/2010 11:09:30 AM
- 1150 Views
Yup, but the day Beijing decides they're better off not intervening the Appeasers look very dumb.
23/11/2010 11:23:35 AM
- 1002 Views
The appeasers look very dumb at this point regardless.
23/11/2010 04:11:41 PM
- 913 Views
yes, because we want to fight *ANOTHER* proxy war with china *NM*
23/11/2010 04:29:18 PM
- 516 Views
"Wanting" has nothing to do with it. There are few alternatives.
23/11/2010 04:50:02 PM
- 1051 Views
Honestly, it COULD go either way.
23/11/2010 05:14:18 PM
- 1187 Views
The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders.
23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM
- 995 Views
Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe.
23/11/2010 07:32:17 PM
- 1078 Views
I don't believe in striking first but, frankly, it's long been a moot point.
23/11/2010 05:09:49 PM
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You know I like to sleep in, remember?
23/11/2010 11:20:33 AM
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Agreed
23/11/2010 02:07:30 PM
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I worry North Korea long ago decided to solve domestic problems with international aggression.
23/11/2010 02:26:36 PM
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That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers
23/11/2010 11:40:33 AM
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Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers
23/11/2010 11:46:03 AM
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Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers
23/11/2010 11:57:51 AM
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The really sad part is, that along with everything else worthwhile in the British Empire...
25/11/2010 09:49:00 AM
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I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 01:14:20 PM
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Re: I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 01:15:10 PM
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Re: I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 04:32:17 PM
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Re: I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 04:36:59 PM
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Careful; qualify all your generalizations and people (especially him) will think you're me.
25/11/2010 02:03:42 PM
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Nuke the fuckers and be done with it. And let China know it's their fault. *NM*
23/11/2010 02:58:56 PM
- 488 Views
you know the world doesn't exist until america wakes up in the morning, right? *NM*
23/11/2010 04:27:27 PM
- 477 Views
OK, have had time to read it, and someone needs to fact check a very important part of that article.
23/11/2010 04:52:02 PM
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Fact checking:
23/11/2010 08:38:57 PM
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The term "truce" used in a different Guardian article seems better.
23/11/2010 09:20:19 PM
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Well
23/11/2010 05:24:02 PM
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Same reason we don't give all our allies (especially neighbors) our best hardware.
23/11/2010 07:43:54 PM
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Actually, no, it looks like The Guardian is just schizoid on this subject.
23/11/2010 08:16:45 PM
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This has been coming for a while but I hoped the West would step up and help out. *NM*
23/11/2010 08:31:40 PM
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There's not going to be any all-out conflict
24/11/2010 12:56:44 AM
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They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway.
24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM
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No kidding, that's been going on for quite some time.
24/11/2010 02:49:50 AM
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That is the crux of it, I suppose.
24/11/2010 03:02:40 PM
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~shrugs~ SK has lived with this a long time, and will continue to do so.
24/11/2010 10:26:44 PM
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Parts of it have; some South Koreans stopped living with it a few days ago.
25/11/2010 01:48:02 PM
- 1631 Views