Toba's ramifications in new models now appear to be grossly exaggerated, and even the worst case scenarios predicted by the original models aren't nearly as pessimistic as what popular media reports, which aren't nearly as pessimistic as the view people tend to get about them from hearing those reports and watching the movies. These doomsdays scenarios usually bare as much resemblance to reality as "The Day After Tomorrow" did for Global Warming.

The problem is that without going in to techno-speak it's hard to explain why the images of a supervolcano blast that people get in their heads are wildly detached from reality. Odds are if it went off now, sitting here in Ohio I'd maybe here a rumble in about two hours and FEMA would be telling everyone to relax, go inside, and fill up water jugs since the ash might make potable water scarce for a couple weeks when the ash cloud arrives some days later. They'd then tell people to get a breathing mask and probably not remind everyone that technically every household is supposed to keep around one or two for every member of the household as part of the disaster prep kit all responsible citizens are supposed to keep that usually costs $10-100 dollars to assemble, then tell everyone not to panic because they'll run instructional videos on how to make one from scratch, and that once the cloud arrives they should wear a mask and goggles while outside till it passes, and that if caught outside without them they are hardly in mortal peril anyway. Crop yields for North America, depending on time of year and severity, are likely to be mildly to severely impacted, but we do have reserves and other countries also grow food. New evidence shows Toba didn't actually have much deforestation result even locally, so odds are the decreased light probably is on par with an overcast day that last for a week or two. It will hardly be sweater weather but global temps are like to be down a few degrees for a year or two, so possible irritating weather and sup-optimal crop yields but not likely mass starvation. Bad, but like recession bad not Four Horsemen bad.