Isn't there almost universal consensus that regardless of what the Archduke hoped to do in terms of reforming Austria-Hungary, it was almost impossible by 1914?
I seem to recall that if it wasn't 1878, then certainly the Bosnia annexation in 1908 and the two Balkan Wars of 1912-1913 eliminated that possibility. But in fairness to him, Franz Ferdinand seemed to become an advocate for a decentralized federalism in the early 1890s after his trip to the US. However, the Court was just too resistant to act upon this (after all, the 1867 Dual Monarchy was forced upon them by the Magyars).
Still, it does make for an interesting "What if?" postulation. Another related one would be the failed tripartite division after the 1848 revolutions.
Je suis méchant.