I think that 1984 is much more realistic, if you look how society operates today. To a reasonable person, it does seem that a society which controls its populace using sex and drugs would be more successful; however, most people aren't reasonable. The majority of the populace reasons at the conventional level, not the principled level. They naturally see the world in terms of ingroup-outgroup conflict, loyalty vs. betrayal; and those concepts to which they expect loyalty are essentially arbitrarily determined (by tradition, by the law, by their religion).

Look at how many elections the Republicans have won by making "liberal" into a curse, all the while promoting "liberty." Look at a large portion of the Democratic party, which somehow reconciles pro-alternative energy and anti-nuclear power positions. Doublethink and newspeak are thriving in the present world, despite all the reasons they shouldn't. The problem is that critical thinking is a skill that has to be learned and developed, and most people are never even exposed to it. Without the ability to discern good ideas from bad, media like the Internet, which should make everyone better informed, just end up aiding the spread of bad information.