What do you think can be made of the various troop movements in The Gathering Storm (if anything)?

I was impressed with all that happened in the book.

1. Ituralde lost about 50,000 of his men fighting the Seanchan.

2. Ituralde killed nearly 100,000 Seanchan and several hundred damane. We know the damane killed were those following Lord Turan (and that means the ones who died were not the Shaido Wise Ones). This is important perhaps. Simply put, the seasoned Seanchan damane are dying and being replaced by new recuits with less experience. It is undecided if the lack of experience of the new damane will play any role or not.

3. Rand moves Ituralde and all of his remaining forces to the borderlanders.

4. Ituralde reports to Rand that there are many sizeable forces of trollocs not far into the blight. Any group of trollocs is capable of overrunning Ituralde. That says something because we know how good Ituralde is and it should be easier to defend than attack. Additionally, Ituralde's men were reinforcing what the borderlanders left behind, which only increases the minimum size of trollocs that would have to be not far from striking distance.

5. Rand reinforces Ituralde with 100 (or more) Asha'man. Used appropriately this force should have a fighting chance against the trolloc hordes, especially because the Asha'man can travel. However, that holds true only if there are no dreadlords helping the trollocs.

6. After Turan's defeat (see #2 above) the Seanchan sent another sizeable force to Arad Doman. It was enough men that Ituralde had no chance to beat them and so he retreated to the Stedding. Because Rand has abandoned Arad Doman and because Ituralde and his men are gone, the Seanchan have free reign over Arad Doman and have now added (or shortly will) Arad Doman to their list of countries conquered.

7. Between the Seanchan raid on the White Tower and Verin's purge of the Black Ajah, the net effect is there are now a couple hundred less Aes Sedai in the White Tower. I purposefully say Verin's purge because I believe Verin deserves the credit for this, not Egwene. Verin cleansed the White Tower, not Egwene.

8. Rand moved his Aiel out of Arad Doman and into Tear. The Aiel force was largely unaffected as far as losses go. They're just in Tear now instead of Arad Doman.

9. We've heard nothing about Rand's Aiel on the border of Illian and Altara. I was hoping to get some news of them, but nothing. I believe, though I may be wrong, that at one point Rand contemplates whether the Seanchan have taken Illian by now too. That would only be true if Rand had moved the Aiel out of the Illian/Altara border and put them somewhere else. I believe Rand moved them somewhere else, maybe to Tear, but maybe elsewhere. We don't know for sure.

10. The borderlanders 200K men made it all the way to Far Madding. Nothing else on them though. I think they're being led (or indirectly led) by one of the Forsaken. I wonder how the council in Far Madding coped with the Kings from the borderlanders and their army taking over the entire area around the island of Far Madding? That would actually have been interesting. If the borderlanders wanted too, they could have brought Far madding to its knees. I'm sure there had to be some type of discussion/negotiation there. It would have been nice to see those wenches humbled a little more.

11. High Captain Chubain (Elaida's former captain) forces were combined with Gareth Brynne's forces. The White Tower now fields quite an impressive army and has access to thousands of channelers. Because the Aes Sedai can link and form huge gateways they are EXPONENTIALLY more mobile than the Seanchan, who probably now have (or shortly will learn) how to travel. The Seanchan can travel, but their troop movements will most likely continue to be the old fashioned way because you just can't move that many people through gateways unless you can link.

12. Perrin and his group of 100,000 refugees are on the march back to Emond's Field to regroup, resupply, and then presumably go look for Rand.

13. Mat and his portion of the Band of the Red Hand are in Caemlyn. Maybe Mat reunited with the other half of the band, maybe not (I don't remember if tGS says).

14. Thankfully Elayne was hardly even mentioned in tGS. I hope she's not in the next book, but I have a feeling she will be.

15. The trollocs are still using the Ways. Although the Ogier have closed off most waygates, notably the waygate on the Shadow Coast is still open. This has GOT to be the waygate used to sneak the trollocs into Altara and attack that Seanchan lady (I forget her name, but she was the one who was allied with Perrin for a time). Anyway, I see no other way to get the trollocs into Altara without notice except the waygate in the shadow coast, which RJ specifically said was not sealed shut. How many trollocs are in the Shadow Coast, I do not know, but possibly hundreds of thousands. I personally think that Demandred (or whoever is leading the trollocs) will launch a two front assault. One prong would come out of the blight border, and the other prong will come out of the Shadow Coast. There may even be a third prong coming out of Haddon Mirk and the waygate there. Or maybe even the Sharans will inavde via land or sea. But that is all speculation.


So what can be made of all this? Can any predictions be made about what to expect in the next book based off what we know happened in tGS?