Average AoL Channeler is stronger than the Average modern day? If everyone is so weak now why have the FS not mentioned it? They only talk about how untrained they are ...
And we can't have a bell curve if there is no middle tier. By your reckoning all modern Channelers are very weak or very strong with people like Egwene being only average. So we bounce from Nynaeve/Sharina/Alivia in the top % of all Channelers and then no one until we get to Egwene at 50%? That's not a Bell Curve.
And we can't have a bell curve if there is no middle tier. By your reckoning all modern Channelers are very weak or very strong with people like Egwene being only average. So we bounce from Nynaeve/Sharina/Alivia in the top % of all Channelers and then no one until we get to Egwene at 50%? That's not a Bell Curve.
Unlike your model, which does not fit the evidence at all.
According to your model, 2 Moiraine strength channelers should be able to match a male Forsaken, since they each have half the EFFECTIVE strength of the strongest possible channeler. And yet, in tSR, Rand is still FAR from his full potential and yet he handles Egwene and Elayne together like "a mastiff handling two kittens" to quote Egwene from my memory. Egwene confirms in that same scene that she is already much stronger than Moiraine, stating that "Moiraine would be on the floor, senseless or whimpering if she tried to hold as much of the Power as I'm holding now.
And as for Elayne, although she is not at her full potential yet, it is doubtful that she is weaker than an average Aes Sedai at that point. After all, her full potential is double that of an average Aes Sedai.
And Rand - far from his full potential - not only shields both of them, but he also lifts both of them into the air, and weaves about a dozen flows at the same time. He shields both of them, and lifts them into the air, and still has plenty of strength to spare to weave 8 or more other flows simultaneously.
Now how could that be possible if two women of Moiraine's strength should be able to match Rand's effective strength according to your model? And while we're on that point, how can your model state that two women of Moiraine's strength should have the effective strength of a male Forsaken, if Egwene states that two women of Moiraine's strength PLUS Egwene would be hard pressed to match a male Forsaken's effective strength?
Don't you see that you're overstating their strength's significantly?
And this is further corroborated by the fact that a strong Aes Sedai like Alanna can barely weave a 6 foot by 6 foot gateway. That's 36 square feet, compared to Rand's 144 square feet. As a percentage, that's 25%. What do you know. It fits exactly with a placing of a modern Aes Sedai at around 25 EFFECTIVE strength, Egwene at around double that - 50 EFFECTIVE strength, and Rand/Lanfear/Male Forsaken at aroudn double that - 90-100 EFFECTIVE strength.
But wait, there's more. Ewgene makes an 8 foot gateway in LoC and is impressed with the size she managed to create. 8x8=64. 64 as a percentage of 144 = 44%.
Do you see what I'm doing here? I'm not using a single quote to justify the strength placings of the various channelers. I'm using multiple quotes that all corroborate one another.
I'm saying Egwene is at most at 50 EFFECTIVE strength.
I'm saying a strong Aes Sedai is at about 25% EFFECTIVE strength.
I'm saying that Moiraine, Lelaine and Romanda are at 30 EFFECITVE strength.
I'm saying a male Forsaken and Lanfear are at 90-100 EFFECTIVE strength.
And I'm saying Rand is at 100 EFFECTIVE strength.
So let's test this hypothesis against the evidence.
Does it match Ewgene's statement that she plus Romanda plus Lelaine would be hard pressed to match a male Forsaken? let's see:
50+30+30 = 110 less 10% linking loss = 99. That's a yes.
Does it match the fact that an underdeveloped Rand shielded Egwene who was stronger than Moiraine, plus Elayne, lifted them both into the air and spun another 8 or more weaves at the same time? Yes it does.
Does it match the fact that Egwene must be as strong as two strong Aes Sedai?
Aes Sedai at 30 plus Aes Sedai at 25 less 10% linking loss = 50. Yes it does.
Does it match the fact that Lanfear brushes aside Egwene and Aviendha, with contemptuos ease at the Docks in FoH?
Aviendha is already as strong enough to make a 7 to 8 foot gateway in that book, as evidenced by the Far Snows chapter. She also shields two damane simultaneously, showing that she is very strong already. This means she is already stronger than all but the strongest Aes Sedai, who struggle to make 6 foot gateways in LoC. And yet Egwene and Aviendha combined are swatted aside like flies by Lanfear in the same book.
The answer is yes, my model fits the fact that Egwene and Aviendha combined in FoH must be significantly less than Lanfear's strength. But yours doesn't, since you put Egwene at 80 and someone of Moiraine's strength (as Aviendha was at that point) at 50.
And last of all, for now, does my model fit the comparative gateway sizes that have been demonstrated by the known channelers?
Rand 144 square feet.
Egwene 64 square feet in LoC
Aviendha 49-64 square feet in FoH
Strong Aes Sedai about 6 feet by 6 feet in LoC? (which equals 25% of Rand's size, by the way)
The answer is, yes it does.
In short, my model fits ALL the evidence in the books very well.
Yours, in contrast, has huge discrepancies with the evidence, and cannot be corroborated by a thorough examination of the text. In fact, it is contradicted by the text.
So clearly, your model is incorrect. How we make the observational evidence fit into some kind of statistical distribution, well, that is the challenge before us. And so far, the best bet is that there was a different Bell Curve in the Age of Legends than there is in the Third Age. But maybe there is another solution waiting to be proposed by some theorist on this board.
What cannot be argued away is that a large number of independent pieces of evidence support the view that a modern Aes Sedai is about 25% of the strongest channeler's effective strength, Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha at full potential are at about 50%, the male Forsaken and Lanfear are at 90-100 and Rand, of course, is right at the top.
This message last edited by Shannow on 22/12/2009 at 09:08:08 PM
I've been playing with some numbers since we've been having all of these OP strength debates
20/12/2009 06:34:05 PM
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Few glaring errors...
20/12/2009 09:04:55 PM
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Re: Few glaring errors...
21/12/2009 07:52:18 AM
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You don't get it, do you...
21/12/2009 08:19:00 AM
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Didn't you claim that Eggy+Rom+Lel cannot match a male forsaken? Now they can match Lanfear?
21/12/2009 04:14:32 PM
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What you are missing is that
21/12/2009 06:46:04 PM
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I'm not missing it at all..
21/12/2009 06:58:04 PM
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Let's try matching that with the actual text
22/12/2009 03:01:36 PM
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Not correct...
22/12/2009 03:29:24 PM
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Believe as you like, I'm not here to convince you to otherwise, I'm stating how I read the evidence
22/12/2009 06:01:24 PM
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You're reading the evidence wrong.
22/12/2009 06:27:17 PM
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RJ also pointed out that Alivia's skill set as a weapon came in handy
22/12/2009 07:40:35 PM
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I thought a power law distribution is much more likely, TBH
20/12/2009 09:39:21 PM
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Yes. It essentially refers to a skewed histogram - biased to the lower end of the range...
20/12/2009 09:53:18 PM
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Corrections
21/12/2009 01:48:43 AM
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No...
21/12/2009 07:47:58 AM
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True, the application of this model is inconsistent *NM*
21/12/2009 02:34:26 PM
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Not if you point out that the average AS is not as strong as the overall average channeler
25/12/2009 04:30:17 AM
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yet RJ has said flat out that OP strength is on an Bell Curve. Meaning the majority of channelers
21/12/2009 07:36:22 AM
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Perhaps...
21/12/2009 07:52:13 AM
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I've always hated bell curves
21/12/2009 03:56:26 PM
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The most logical answer is that the average AOL channeler was stronger than the current average...
21/12/2009 06:36:07 PM
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and that in no way maps to any kind of Bell Curve
22/12/2009 06:02:41 PM
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Why?
22/12/2009 06:34:25 PM
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Can you provide the quote where RJ tells us the
22/12/2009 07:45:04 PM
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Always go back to the evidence...
22/12/2009 09:03:42 PM
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I'll respond when you can actually provide a few actual quotes to support any of this
23/12/2009 03:20:44 PM
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I've been looking into this a bit... and you really do overstate things to suit your arguments
24/12/2009 06:15:44 PM
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And in looking for quotes for another thread I came across this gem
29/12/2009 09:54:34 PM
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I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population
22/12/2009 08:35:23 PM
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Except that gateway size is used multiple times by characters to judge comparative strength...
22/12/2009 09:21:07 PM
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Re: Except that gateway size is used multiple times by characters to judge comparative strength...
22/12/2009 11:32:21 PM
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I agree that it's practically impossible to determine strength
23/12/2009 03:19:49 PM
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How convenient. And by the way, it is NOT tied to a Talent. Anyone who is strong enough, can Travel. *NM*
23/12/2009 04:36:24 PM
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Seriously go re-read the series, how can you have missed that Traveling is a Talent?
23/12/2009 04:54:51 PM
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It is a weave, the knowledge of which guarantees that you can use it, if you are strong enough...
23/12/2009 05:35:36 PM
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Yet every AS can Heal to a degree and Cloud Dancing involves weaves too
23/12/2009 05:41:42 PM
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Lews Therin can't Heal. Aginor can't Heal. If you don't have the Talent, you can't do it. *NM*
23/12/2009 05:52:02 PM
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LTT and Aginor have "Little Ability" with Healing
23/12/2009 06:02:13 PM
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Because the channelers THEMSELVES don't use Healing to judge each other's strength...
23/12/2009 06:06:58 PM
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The Channelers state that there is a minimum level of strength to make the Weave work
23/12/2009 06:11:55 PM
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No, it makes her 25% as strong as Rand! Thanks for proving my model to be virtually perfect!
23/12/2009 06:36:53 PM
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This is true, however...
23/12/2009 04:55:48 PM
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Aviendha's gateway size doesn't decrease. She is just less energy efficient in creating it...
23/12/2009 05:30:17 PM
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Aviendha is suffering from the second weave limitation
23/12/2009 05:37:45 PM
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Conceded. My faulty memory is to blame in this case. But it doesn't change the rule...
23/12/2009 06:01:33 PM
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I'll give you that there is a stength limitation to Traveling
23/12/2009 06:06:41 PM
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Why do the characters in the books judge each other's strength on gateway size then? *NM*
23/12/2009 06:08:17 PM
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Re: Why do the characters in the books judge each other's strength on gateway size then?
23/12/2009 06:20:18 PM
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And there you have it...Thank you.
23/12/2009 06:27:24 PM
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And linked with Romanda and Lelaine
23/12/2009 06:34:42 PM
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Sorry. That's pure speculation on your part. *NM*
23/12/2009 06:38:43 PM
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No more than yours is!
23/12/2009 06:49:57 PM
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Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population
26/12/2009 12:38:43 PM
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Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population *NM*
26/12/2009 12:41:01 PM
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Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population
26/12/2009 06:37:50 PM
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Goodness
31/12/2009 03:37:23 AM
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I'm working within the context of what we've been told by the author
31/12/2009 03:43:31 AM
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No you are not
31/12/2009 03:58:28 AM
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Back to school AS, and you will be able to do this
26/12/2009 12:34:39 PM
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The problem we're working with is that RJ says strength follows a Bell Curve distribution
26/12/2009 03:29:26 PM
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And RJ knew his maths (and you don't)
31/12/2009 03:22:09 AM
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I'm not the one who said OP strength followed a Bell Curve Distribution
31/12/2009 03:34:55 AM
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