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Always go back to the evidence... Shannow Send a noteboard - 22/12/2009 09:03:42 PM
Average AoL Channeler is stronger than the Average modern day? If everyone is so weak now why have the FS not mentioned it? They only talk about how untrained they are ...

And we can't have a bell curve if there is no middle tier. By your reckoning all modern Channelers are very weak or very strong with people like Egwene being only average. So we bounce from Nynaeve/Sharina/Alivia in the top % of all Channelers and then no one until we get to Egwene at 50%? That's not a Bell Curve.


Unlike your model, which does not fit the evidence at all.

According to your model, 2 Moiraine strength channelers should be able to match a male Forsaken, since they each have half the EFFECTIVE strength of the strongest possible channeler. And yet, in tSR, Rand is still FAR from his full potential and yet he handles Egwene and Elayne together like "a mastiff handling two kittens" to quote Egwene from my memory. Egwene confirms in that same scene that she is already much stronger than Moiraine, stating that "Moiraine would be on the floor, senseless or whimpering if she tried to hold as much of the Power as I'm holding now.

And as for Elayne, although she is not at her full potential yet, it is doubtful that she is weaker than an average Aes Sedai at that point. After all, her full potential is double that of an average Aes Sedai.

And Rand - far from his full potential - not only shields both of them, but he also lifts both of them into the air, and weaves about a dozen flows at the same time. He shields both of them, and lifts them into the air, and still has plenty of strength to spare to weave 8 or more other flows simultaneously.

Now how could that be possible if two women of Moiraine's strength should be able to match Rand's effective strength according to your model? And while we're on that point, how can your model state that two women of Moiraine's strength should have the effective strength of a male Forsaken, if Egwene states that two women of Moiraine's strength PLUS Egwene would be hard pressed to match a male Forsaken's effective strength?

Don't you see that you're overstating their strength's significantly?

And this is further corroborated by the fact that a strong Aes Sedai like Alanna can barely weave a 6 foot by 6 foot gateway. That's 36 square feet, compared to Rand's 144 square feet. As a percentage, that's 25%. What do you know. It fits exactly with a placing of a modern Aes Sedai at around 25 EFFECTIVE strength, Egwene at around double that - 50 EFFECTIVE strength, and Rand/Lanfear/Male Forsaken at aroudn double that - 90-100 EFFECTIVE strength.

But wait, there's more. Ewgene makes an 8 foot gateway in LoC and is impressed with the size she managed to create. 8x8=64. 64 as a percentage of 144 = 44%.

Do you see what I'm doing here? I'm not using a single quote to justify the strength placings of the various channelers. I'm using multiple quotes that all corroborate one another.

I'm saying Egwene is at most at 50 EFFECTIVE strength.
I'm saying a strong Aes Sedai is at about 25% EFFECTIVE strength.
I'm saying that Moiraine, Lelaine and Romanda are at 30 EFFECITVE strength.
I'm saying a male Forsaken and Lanfear are at 90-100 EFFECTIVE strength.
And I'm saying Rand is at 100 EFFECTIVE strength.

So let's test this hypothesis against the evidence.

Does it match Ewgene's statement that she plus Romanda plus Lelaine would be hard pressed to match a male Forsaken? let's see:

50+30+30 = 110 less 10% linking loss = 99. That's a yes.

Does it match the fact that an underdeveloped Rand shielded Egwene who was stronger than Moiraine, plus Elayne, lifted them both into the air and spun another 8 or more weaves at the same time? Yes it does.

Does it match the fact that Egwene must be as strong as two strong Aes Sedai?

Aes Sedai at 30 plus Aes Sedai at 25 less 10% linking loss = 50. Yes it does.

Does it match the fact that Lanfear brushes aside Egwene and Aviendha, with contemptuos ease at the Docks in FoH?

Aviendha is already as strong enough to make a 7 to 8 foot gateway in that book, as evidenced by the Far Snows chapter. She also shields two damane simultaneously, showing that she is very strong already. This means she is already stronger than all but the strongest Aes Sedai, who struggle to make 6 foot gateways in LoC. And yet Egwene and Aviendha combined are swatted aside like flies by Lanfear in the same book.

The answer is yes, my model fits the fact that Egwene and Aviendha combined in FoH must be significantly less than Lanfear's strength. But yours doesn't, since you put Egwene at 80 and someone of Moiraine's strength (as Aviendha was at that point) at 50.

And last of all, for now, does my model fit the comparative gateway sizes that have been demonstrated by the known channelers?

Rand 144 square feet.
Egwene 64 square feet in LoC
Aviendha 49-64 square feet in FoH
Strong Aes Sedai about 6 feet by 6 feet in LoC? (which equals 25% of Rand's size, by the way)

The answer is, yes it does.

In short, my model fits ALL the evidence in the books very well.

Yours, in contrast, has huge discrepancies with the evidence, and cannot be corroborated by a thorough examination of the text. In fact, it is contradicted by the text.

So clearly, your model is incorrect. How we make the observational evidence fit into some kind of statistical distribution, well, that is the challenge before us. And so far, the best bet is that there was a different Bell Curve in the Age of Legends than there is in the Third Age. But maybe there is another solution waiting to be proposed by some theorist on this board.

What cannot be argued away is that a large number of independent pieces of evidence support the view that a modern Aes Sedai is about 25% of the strongest channeler's effective strength, Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha at full potential are at about 50%, the male Forsaken and Lanfear are at 90-100 and Rand, of course, is right at the top.




This message last edited by Shannow on 22/12/2009 at 09:08:08 PM
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I've been playing with some numbers since we've been having all of these OP strength debates - 20/12/2009 06:34:05 PM 1260 Views
There are 21 levels, not 100. More later. *NM* - 20/12/2009 07:23:18 PM 440 Views
RJ has said a number of times that the 21 level scale - 20/12/2009 07:35:25 PM 660 Views
Few glaring errors... - 20/12/2009 09:04:55 PM 844 Views
Re: Few glaring errors... - 21/12/2009 07:52:18 AM 816 Views
You don't get it, do you... - 21/12/2009 08:19:00 AM 747 Views
Didn't you claim that Eggy+Rom+Lel cannot match a male forsaken? Now they can match Lanfear? - 21/12/2009 04:14:32 PM 635 Views
That only strengthens my point. - 21/12/2009 06:23:39 PM 680 Views
No it does not. - 28/12/2009 02:45:42 AM 730 Views
What you are missing is that - 21/12/2009 06:46:04 PM 689 Views
I'm not missing it at all.. - 21/12/2009 06:58:04 PM 716 Views
Let's try matching that with the actual text - 22/12/2009 03:01:36 PM 693 Views
Not correct... - 22/12/2009 03:29:24 PM 783 Views
Believe as you like, I'm not here to convince you to otherwise, I'm stating how I read the evidence - 22/12/2009 06:01:24 PM 681 Views
You're reading the evidence wrong. - 22/12/2009 06:27:17 PM 663 Views
RJ also pointed out that Alivia's skill set as a weapon came in handy - 22/12/2009 07:40:35 PM 619 Views
I thought a power law distribution is much more likely, TBH - 20/12/2009 09:39:21 PM 741 Views
Yes. It essentially refers to a skewed histogram - biased to the lower end of the range... - 20/12/2009 09:53:18 PM 780 Views
Corrections - 21/12/2009 01:48:43 AM 794 Views
No... - 21/12/2009 07:47:58 AM 685 Views
True, the application of this model is inconsistent *NM* - 21/12/2009 02:34:26 PM 567 Views
yet RJ has said flat out that OP strength is on an Bell Curve. Meaning the majority of channelers - 21/12/2009 07:36:22 AM 667 Views
Perhaps... - 21/12/2009 07:52:13 AM 732 Views
I've always hated bell curves - 21/12/2009 03:56:26 PM 683 Views
The most logical answer is that the average AOL channeler was stronger than the current average... - 21/12/2009 06:36:07 PM 676 Views
and that in no way maps to any kind of Bell Curve - 22/12/2009 06:02:41 PM 559 Views
Why? - 22/12/2009 06:34:25 PM 689 Views
Can you provide the quote where RJ tells us the - 22/12/2009 07:45:04 PM 606 Views
Always go back to the evidence... - 22/12/2009 09:03:42 PM 763 Views
I'll respond when you can actually provide a few actual quotes to support any of this - 23/12/2009 03:20:44 PM 675 Views
Name an item you dispute and I will provide the quote.... - 23/12/2009 05:19:49 PM 648 Views
it's addressed below - 23/12/2009 05:23:58 PM 660 Views
I've been looking into this a bit... and you really do overstate things to suit your arguments - 24/12/2009 06:15:44 PM 697 Views
And in looking for quotes for another thread I came across this gem - 29/12/2009 09:54:34 PM 668 Views
Nice! It proves what I've been saying for ages... - 29/12/2009 10:13:41 PM 697 Views
Which is why I contend that they are about 80% of Lanfear - 29/12/2009 10:16:07 PM 655 Views
I wasn't trying to rip him a new one. - 22/12/2009 09:38:43 PM 587 Views
I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population - 22/12/2009 08:35:23 PM 704 Views
Except that gateway size is used multiple times by characters to judge comparative strength... - 22/12/2009 09:21:07 PM 704 Views
Re: Except that gateway size is used multiple times by characters to judge comparative strength... - 22/12/2009 11:32:21 PM 797 Views
I agree that it's practically impossible to determine strength - 23/12/2009 03:19:49 PM 694 Views
How convenient. And by the way, it is NOT tied to a Talent. Anyone who is strong enough, can Travel. *NM* - 23/12/2009 04:36:24 PM 410 Views
This is true, however... - 23/12/2009 04:55:48 PM 721 Views
Aviendha's gateway size doesn't decrease. She is just less energy efficient in creating it... - 23/12/2009 05:30:17 PM 957 Views
Aviendha is suffering from the second weave limitation - 23/12/2009 05:37:45 PM 753 Views
Conceded. My faulty memory is to blame in this case. But it doesn't change the rule... - 23/12/2009 06:01:33 PM 603 Views
I'll give you that there is a stength limitation to Traveling - 23/12/2009 06:06:41 PM 640 Views
Why do the characters in the books judge each other's strength on gateway size then? *NM* - 23/12/2009 06:08:17 PM 373 Views
Re: Why do the characters in the books judge each other's strength on gateway size then? - 23/12/2009 06:20:18 PM 667 Views
And there you have it...Thank you. - 23/12/2009 06:27:24 PM 651 Views
And linked with Romanda and Lelaine - 23/12/2009 06:34:42 PM 641 Views
Sorry. That's pure speculation on your part. *NM* - 23/12/2009 06:38:43 PM 384 Views
No more than yours is! - 23/12/2009 06:49:57 PM 683 Views
That entire passage is in the context of strength... - 23/12/2009 07:55:50 PM 587 Views
You need to re-read some of this stuff - 23/12/2009 11:01:15 PM 726 Views
Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population - 26/12/2009 12:38:43 PM 660 Views
Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population - 26/12/2009 06:37:50 PM 642 Views
Goodness - 31/12/2009 03:37:23 AM 686 Views
I'm working within the context of what we've been told by the author - 31/12/2009 03:43:31 AM 634 Views
Since you love Wiki so much - 31/12/2009 03:55:09 AM 645 Views
No you are not - 31/12/2009 03:58:28 AM 687 Views
Dude we're discussion works of fiction - 31/12/2009 04:08:12 AM 707 Views
Dumb Bell Distribution of Mongoloid Turings - 31/12/2009 04:36:50 AM 762 Views
Back to school AS, and you will be able to do this - 26/12/2009 12:34:39 PM 615 Views
The problem we're working with is that RJ says strength follows a Bell Curve distribution - 26/12/2009 03:29:26 PM 643 Views
And RJ knew his maths (and you don't) - 31/12/2009 03:22:09 AM 690 Views
I'm not the one who said OP strength followed a Bell Curve Distribution - 31/12/2009 03:34:55 AM 640 Views
You are the one who is MIS-USING his statement - 31/12/2009 03:44:26 AM 642 Views
- 31/12/2009 03:48:20 AM 947 Views
The pathos of Darius - 31/12/2009 04:26:15 AM 667 Views
Is Lanfear the strongest?(now) - 29/12/2009 12:46:13 AM 586 Views
Re: Is Lanfear the strongest?(now) - 29/12/2009 04:21:47 PM 652 Views

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