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There are 21 levels, not 100. More later. *NM* fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 20/12/2009 07:23:18 PM
Let me start out by stating the various facts that we know for certain:

1. OP Strength follows a Bell Curve
2. Men are in general stronger than women
3. Lanfear is the strongest woman
4. Rand is the strongest man
5. Egwene is about as strong as Amys and Melaine combined
6. Daigian is the weakest AS
7. Siuan is now less than 50% of her original strength, but still strong enough to be AS
8. 37.5% of Channelers have enough strength to qualify as AS

Assumptions I've made:

1. There is one Bell Curve of distribution, but male and female strength have different scales (balanced by dexterity)... I'm trying to square effective and raw strength measures
2. There are 100 levels (just made the math easier)
3. Linking has a 10-15% penalty on raw strength

Okay so here we go...


Looking at a Bell Curve from 1-100 it's mathematical fact that 50 is the mean-median-mode. What we don't know is the unit of measure between each level on the scale. I've made an attempt to figure out how this could work and I think I've come somewhat close...

If we assume that each level for women allows for a woman to draw approximately 4 "units of saidar". Knowing that a man with the same effective strength also has more raw strength I applied a 25% increase to each "unit of saidin", thus each level for men adds 5 rather than 4. That would make our scale 4-400 for women and 5-500 for men, with Lanfear at 400 being as effective as Rand at 500. In effect we now have a 250 unit man and a 200 unit woman as the respective mean-median-mode yet both root back to 50 on the 100 point scale.

What does that leave us for levels?

If we assume Moiraine is a 50 (200), then it would in fact mean that in order to match Rand it would take 3 women of her strength to be roughly the raw power equivalent to the strongest male. It also squares with Siuan losing more than half of her overall strength and still remaining strong enough to be AS (if she lost 60% she would be about an 80 unit woman and probably right at the cusp of AS minimum).

Egwene would fall at about 320 (effective level 80), more than half Rand in Raw power, but linked with another woman her strength only a little stronger than him, close enough that he could still win a direct confrontation and shielding him would be an uphill battle. Also, linked with Romanda and Lelaine (200 each) still not enough stronger than a FS level male to be 100% certain of victory. Aviendha's assertion that Egwene is as strong as Amy's and Melaine combined is pretty close here if Amys is a 192 (level 48 ) and Melaine a 152 (level 38 ) she's pretty close if not 100% accurate.

Where does that place the "average AS", or even the majority of AS?

I'd say modern AS standards are low enough that a level 18 woman (Daigian) probably represents the lowest, but Level 20 being the more likely "minimum" ... which would be about where Siuan falls now if she lost 60% of her original strength.

Obviously we know that the majority of AS fall below the ranks of Melaine, so I'd venture the guess that 85% or more AS are between level 20 and level 35 ( 80-140) ... this matches up with comments about 13 weakest sisters could handle Rand as they would be more than 2x his raw strength... and even 6 weak sisters could probably maintain a shield on him once it was woven. And it still maps nicely to the 3 needed to hold Semirhage and 2 for Egwene.

So where do the Forsaken fall you ask? Well, on a Bell Curve they should all fall in the top few percent of available strength... which with units of measure added in, there are enough differences to account for the various levels and to account for the lack of outright fear in the top rungs.

Moghedien is clearly the weakest so I'd call her a 93 (372)

Asmodean is probably the weakest male and thus less effective than some of the stronger women I'd say he's a 95 (475)

Mesaana could be also be a 95 (380)

Be'lal/Balthamel seem to be the next males on the list probably 96 (480) or Mesaana could fall here (384)

Semirhage, Sammael, and Rhavin could be 97 (388 and 485) Nynaeve probably fits here.

Graendal and Aginor at 98 (392 and 490) and likely Sharina

Cyndane (Alivia) and Demandred are at 99 (396 and 495)

Lanfear/Ishamael and Rand at 100 (400 and 500)

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I've been playing with some numbers since we've been having all of these OP strength debates - 20/12/2009 06:34:05 PM 1260 Views
There are 21 levels, not 100. More later. *NM* - 20/12/2009 07:23:18 PM 441 Views
RJ has said a number of times that the 21 level scale - 20/12/2009 07:35:25 PM 661 Views
Few glaring errors... - 20/12/2009 09:04:55 PM 845 Views
Re: Few glaring errors... - 21/12/2009 07:52:18 AM 816 Views
You don't get it, do you... - 21/12/2009 08:19:00 AM 748 Views
Didn't you claim that Eggy+Rom+Lel cannot match a male forsaken? Now they can match Lanfear? - 21/12/2009 04:14:32 PM 635 Views
That only strengthens my point. - 21/12/2009 06:23:39 PM 680 Views
No it does not. - 28/12/2009 02:45:42 AM 731 Views
What you are missing is that - 21/12/2009 06:46:04 PM 690 Views
I'm not missing it at all.. - 21/12/2009 06:58:04 PM 716 Views
Let's try matching that with the actual text - 22/12/2009 03:01:36 PM 693 Views
Not correct... - 22/12/2009 03:29:24 PM 783 Views
Believe as you like, I'm not here to convince you to otherwise, I'm stating how I read the evidence - 22/12/2009 06:01:24 PM 681 Views
You're reading the evidence wrong. - 22/12/2009 06:27:17 PM 663 Views
RJ also pointed out that Alivia's skill set as a weapon came in handy - 22/12/2009 07:40:35 PM 620 Views
I thought a power law distribution is much more likely, TBH - 20/12/2009 09:39:21 PM 742 Views
Yes. It essentially refers to a skewed histogram - biased to the lower end of the range... - 20/12/2009 09:53:18 PM 781 Views
Corrections - 21/12/2009 01:48:43 AM 795 Views
No... - 21/12/2009 07:47:58 AM 686 Views
True, the application of this model is inconsistent *NM* - 21/12/2009 02:34:26 PM 568 Views
yet RJ has said flat out that OP strength is on an Bell Curve. Meaning the majority of channelers - 21/12/2009 07:36:22 AM 668 Views
Perhaps... - 21/12/2009 07:52:13 AM 733 Views
I've always hated bell curves - 21/12/2009 03:56:26 PM 684 Views
The most logical answer is that the average AOL channeler was stronger than the current average... - 21/12/2009 06:36:07 PM 676 Views
and that in no way maps to any kind of Bell Curve - 22/12/2009 06:02:41 PM 560 Views
Why? - 22/12/2009 06:34:25 PM 690 Views
Can you provide the quote where RJ tells us the - 22/12/2009 07:45:04 PM 606 Views
Always go back to the evidence... - 22/12/2009 09:03:42 PM 763 Views
I'll respond when you can actually provide a few actual quotes to support any of this - 23/12/2009 03:20:44 PM 676 Views
Name an item you dispute and I will provide the quote.... - 23/12/2009 05:19:49 PM 649 Views
it's addressed below - 23/12/2009 05:23:58 PM 661 Views
I've been looking into this a bit... and you really do overstate things to suit your arguments - 24/12/2009 06:15:44 PM 697 Views
And in looking for quotes for another thread I came across this gem - 29/12/2009 09:54:34 PM 668 Views
Nice! It proves what I've been saying for ages... - 29/12/2009 10:13:41 PM 697 Views
Which is why I contend that they are about 80% of Lanfear - 29/12/2009 10:16:07 PM 655 Views
I wasn't trying to rip him a new one. - 22/12/2009 09:38:43 PM 588 Views
I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population - 22/12/2009 08:35:23 PM 704 Views
Except that gateway size is used multiple times by characters to judge comparative strength... - 22/12/2009 09:21:07 PM 705 Views
Re: Except that gateway size is used multiple times by characters to judge comparative strength... - 22/12/2009 11:32:21 PM 798 Views
I agree that it's practically impossible to determine strength - 23/12/2009 03:19:49 PM 695 Views
How convenient. And by the way, it is NOT tied to a Talent. Anyone who is strong enough, can Travel. *NM* - 23/12/2009 04:36:24 PM 410 Views
This is true, however... - 23/12/2009 04:55:48 PM 722 Views
Aviendha's gateway size doesn't decrease. She is just less energy efficient in creating it... - 23/12/2009 05:30:17 PM 957 Views
Aviendha is suffering from the second weave limitation - 23/12/2009 05:37:45 PM 754 Views
Conceded. My faulty memory is to blame in this case. But it doesn't change the rule... - 23/12/2009 06:01:33 PM 603 Views
I'll give you that there is a stength limitation to Traveling - 23/12/2009 06:06:41 PM 641 Views
Why do the characters in the books judge each other's strength on gateway size then? *NM* - 23/12/2009 06:08:17 PM 374 Views
Re: Why do the characters in the books judge each other's strength on gateway size then? - 23/12/2009 06:20:18 PM 667 Views
And there you have it...Thank you. - 23/12/2009 06:27:24 PM 652 Views
And linked with Romanda and Lelaine - 23/12/2009 06:34:42 PM 642 Views
Sorry. That's pure speculation on your part. *NM* - 23/12/2009 06:38:43 PM 384 Views
No more than yours is! - 23/12/2009 06:49:57 PM 683 Views
That entire passage is in the context of strength... - 23/12/2009 07:55:50 PM 588 Views
You need to re-read some of this stuff - 23/12/2009 11:01:15 PM 726 Views
Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population - 26/12/2009 12:38:43 PM 661 Views
Re: I don't think we have a representative sample of the mode in this population - 26/12/2009 06:37:50 PM 642 Views
Goodness - 31/12/2009 03:37:23 AM 686 Views
I'm working within the context of what we've been told by the author - 31/12/2009 03:43:31 AM 635 Views
Since you love Wiki so much - 31/12/2009 03:55:09 AM 645 Views
No you are not - 31/12/2009 03:58:28 AM 687 Views
Dude we're discussion works of fiction - 31/12/2009 04:08:12 AM 708 Views
Dumb Bell Distribution of Mongoloid Turings - 31/12/2009 04:36:50 AM 764 Views
Back to school AS, and you will be able to do this - 26/12/2009 12:34:39 PM 615 Views
The problem we're working with is that RJ says strength follows a Bell Curve distribution - 26/12/2009 03:29:26 PM 643 Views
And RJ knew his maths (and you don't) - 31/12/2009 03:22:09 AM 690 Views
I'm not the one who said OP strength followed a Bell Curve Distribution - 31/12/2009 03:34:55 AM 641 Views
You are the one who is MIS-USING his statement - 31/12/2009 03:44:26 AM 642 Views
- 31/12/2009 03:48:20 AM 947 Views
The pathos of Darius - 31/12/2009 04:26:15 AM 667 Views
Is Lanfear the strongest?(now) - 29/12/2009 12:46:13 AM 587 Views
Re: Is Lanfear the strongest?(now) - 29/12/2009 04:21:47 PM 653 Views

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