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Explain one thing to me... Shannow Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM

The Tower mostly excludes people who are too weak to test for the shawl. Not only do we know this for a fact, we actually know what percentage of women are excluded for this reason. 37.5% to be precise.

That means 37.5% of women are weaker than Dagian, by the way. The one indisputable fact we have in this debate.

Thank you for finally acknowledging that.
Now, if you took a random sample, you would expect the average to be more or less equal to the average of the entire population. But this sample (the Aes Sedai)is not random, in fact, it excludes 37.5% of women who are weaker than Dagian. Thereofore, a sample consisting only of Aes Sedai would be skewed to the stronger side of the range. In other words, the average for this sample would fall above the average for the entire population.

Nope. Simply because the Tower also ends up excluding the very strong channelers. The 1000 sisters we consider in the Tower do not have a range from Morghase to Lanfear. They have a range from Daigian to Moiraine. The average, therefore, is likely to be close to (though not exactly, since the exclusion is skewed towards one side, we don't know which, exactly) 50. The strongest sisters like Moiriane are likely to be a level or two above the average woman, that's all.
Therefore, the average Aes Sedai is stronger than the average woman. Now from my recollection, women like Alanna and Verin are already above average for an Aes Sedai. That means, according to your theory, Alanna and Verin would each be more than 50% as strong as Rand.

Nope.


I just can't understand you and Siddy here. You ignore RJ's quote, ignore the mathematics, plug your ears with your fingers and keep repeating that you have to be right. If you want to disprove what I'm saying, why not come up with an actual "relative scale" that you guys keep harping about and show me how that fits a bell curve and proves your point. It won't. Seen a relative grading for an exam? They use bell curves too. They skew the average by excluding the outliers so that the average will clutter around the score the most number of people got. But RJ said his bell curve covers all channelers. You would need to exclude people from the level of Egwene or something to come up with an average strength of 25.

I know and understand how this almost 100% boost to Aes Sedai strength can be confusing and disorienting. The first time I saw the bell curve statement, I was similarly thrown off.

Lets take the one example that can prove this.

Verin, Shalon and Kumira vs. Graendal.

You'd put Verin at 20, Shalon at 22, Kumira at 11 (since she is just stronger than Daigian) and Graendal at a minimum of 80, right?

Now, Verin and Graendal had angreal, though both call it weak. Lets say Verin's multiplied her strength by 2 and Graendal's multiplied her strength 1.5 times.

Then the circle had 40+22+11-10=63 (taking into account loss of strength due to linking. Even if you put it down to loss of only 5, their strength is only 6. So, roughly, lets put their strength at 65. Lets say the precision advantage boosts this to 85, even.
Even with this, Graendal has a strength of 80*1.5= 120!

This circle beat back Graendal with the loss of one member. Yet, you want me to believe that Egwene at 45, with Romanda and Lelaine at 25, meaning a combined strength linked of 85, cannot beat back one of the male Forsaken unaided? That is laughable. Even if you say Verin's angreal increases her strength by 3, and Kumira is of strength 15, their circle still has a maximum strength of a 100/110.
And Graendal still has the amazing skill advantages, yet she gets beaten back?

Clearly, there's something wrong with your placement. Aspects of the text, as well as the one mathematical fact we have about OP strength disprove it.


How can Ewgene be stronger than two very strong Aes Sedai combined? Are even very strong Aes Sedai below the average woman in strength? If not, Egwene must be at 100 strength, which is patently impossible, since there are women stronger than her.

Answer this question in a way that is consistent with your model. You cannot, and therefore your entire model falls flat.
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha Sidious - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8259 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... Shannow - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1596 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1584 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... Shannow - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1389 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... fionwe1987 - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1506 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1075 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1483 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... Shannow - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1364 Views
Indeed, and not only that Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1069 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1143 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 750 Views
why? darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1191 Views
Re: why? Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1268 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1235 Views
and yet RJ does Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1143 Views
Re: and yet RJ does darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1022 Views
Re: and yet RJ does Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1112 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1227 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 970 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 923 Views
Meh... Sidious - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 931 Views
Re: Meh... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 980 Views
Re: Meh... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1239 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1191 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1098 Views
Let's work with your figures... Shannow - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1036 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1029 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 709 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1130 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. Logain - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1159 Views
the obvious answer darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1020 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1043 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve Logain - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 975 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1156 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. Logain - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1231 Views
I think all the main characters were forced Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1136 Views
agreed! darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1051 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1061 Views
What? Where? *NM* Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1119 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1039 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart darius_sedai - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1017 Views
Don't links amplify stength? BlackAdder - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 955 Views
The opposite, actually. Phelix - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1059 Views
Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength Logain - 17/12/2009 07:46:55 PM 968 Views
Re: Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:55:38 PM 1157 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to Logain - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1191 Views
It means even Moghedien is vastly stronger than the average modern Aes Sedai... Shannow - 17/12/2009 05:48:09 PM 1176 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1091 Views
Agreed! *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 630 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1165 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... Shannow - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1117 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1343 Views
uhm.... yes she knows Oberonus - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1183 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1068 Views
yup *NM* darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 587 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1147 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1334 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1086 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1024 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1054 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1061 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? Logain - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 987 Views
agreed darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 949 Views
Elayne says Egwene was at her full strength in TSR, and thus was stronger than she currently was. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:25:31 PM 928 Views
Elayne says Egwene was forced and was thus currently stronger darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:51:28 PM 971 Views
Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section! RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 11:23:20 PM 1002 Views
Re: Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section! darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:25:31 PM 1002 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* Cannoli - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 637 Views
I'll check *NM* Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 606 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... Shannow - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1113 Views
No people just interpret things differently darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 920 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? fionwe1987 - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 863 Views
I think they are secretly just trying to make Lanfear appear that much stronger *NM* darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:17:38 PM 569 Views
You also forget something. Phelix - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 952 Views
Re: You also forget something. darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 976 Views
Re: You also forget something. Phelix - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1000 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 961 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 878 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 922 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* Sidious - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 902 Views
I cannot. That's the point... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 929 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 933 Views
Sorry, but no... fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 972 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... Shannow - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1453 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 937 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 842 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 880 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 933 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 898 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 835 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 903 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 969 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 905 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 983 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1003 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1066 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1003 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... Shannow - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 981 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 908 Views
Explain one thing to me... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 925 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 542 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. Shannow - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 883 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 934 Views
Can you provide the quote? fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 844 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it darius_sedai - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1023 Views
which is also suspect darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 946 Views
No it's not Sidious - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 917 Views
we're in agreement darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 867 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 947 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 916 Views
I don't think it's a lie BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 968 Views
Agreed Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 922 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 903 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 878 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 925 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 982 Views
I've discussed this before... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 974 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 950 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 928 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... Shannow - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 960 Views
Why are you entertaining this? Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 938 Views
The other poster showed no proof that RJ's math was wrong. Read what he said again! *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:09:49 PM 585 Views
Verin's circle matched Granedal dude. And average strength does not mean great strength. fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:07:51 PM 950 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 952 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill Sidious - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 954 Views
of course it's about skill darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 942 Views
Not it isn't! Sidious - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 972 Views
If she was only thinking about strength why then didn't she have a plan to add Sheriam darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 07:09:08 PM 894 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... everynametaken - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1054 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. Heiko - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1176 Views
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