Wheel of Time Messageboard: Well, the Aes Sedai are the only group that we have detailed strength info about... by Shannow

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Well, the Aes Sedai are the only group that we have detailed strength info about... Shannow Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 10:26:48 PM

Perhaps the distribution would be more Gaussian (bell-shaped) when you consider the whole possible population of channelers rather than just the AS. This is purely speculative, but since in the AoL every possible channeler was found and trained to potential, then perhaps the strength distribution would have been perfectly Gaussian in the AoL.

And the evidence in the books clearly show that the average Aes Sedai isn't close to 50% as strong as the strongest woman.

Heck, the average Aes Sedai is shown to be less than 50% as strong as Egwene.

So I am perfectly happy to accept a perfect Bell Curve in the Age of Legends. But that wouldn't apply to modern channelers.

I agree with you that the Aes Sedai are not distributed around 50%.

I do not agree, at least not from the evidence I've seen, that if you included all modern channelers the distribution would still not be at 50% mean. I think to make a proper survey you would need to count all potential channelers who have never been trained, all Sea Folk, all damane, and any other channeling groups I've forgotten.

(Note 1: I tried to make this point in my first post, but I think bringing up the AoL was a distraction.
Note 2: My count is highly speculative, but I'm not saying this distribution is true, merely possible.)

So to reiterate, if you're only arguing about AS, then I agree. They are, on average, pretty weak. If you're expanding the argument to all female channelers of the Age, then I'm not so sure.

Anything involving non Aes Sedai channelers would for the most part be pure speculation, so I can't really comment on them, other than to say that there are 5 modern Forsaken strength women, and they are evenly distributed across the various channeling populations:

1 Aes Sedai - Nynaeve
1 Aiel - Someryn
1 Sea Folk - Talaan
1 Seanchan - Alivia
1 random non Aes Sedai Randlander - Sharina

So, if you look at the number of channelers in each group, the proportions seem to be more or less the same.

Out of 1000 Aes Sedai we have one
Out of 2000-3000 Wise Ones we have one - who says she has never met another Wise One close to her strength.
Out of thousands of Sea Folk we have one.
Out of the known damane we have one, although this should increase proportionately as more damane are examined. Nevertheless, as long as the proportion holds true, then it doesn't change the average strength in the population.

Anyway, the point is, we have zero evidence that other channeling groups are any stronger on average than the modern Aes Sedai are.

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The One Power Bell Curve: Proof that it is not centered on 50% of the strongest channeler's strength Shannow - 18/12/2009 08:37:55 AM 1313 Views

I always thought the curve was one sided Asha'man Warder - 18/12/2009 01:17:32 PM 722 Views

The Curve only refers to the channeling population, not to non-channelers. Shannow - 18/12/2009 01:56:25 PM 724 Views

I would say that your sample is flawed. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 18/12/2009 05:02:02 PM 803 Views

well said *NM* darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:12:40 PM 378 Views

It doesn't matter... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:02:38 PM 656 Views

But, it sort of does. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 18/12/2009 10:43:08 PM 705 Views

So you're saying that no modern Aes Sedai are even of average strength? Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:51:01 PM 783 Views

Are you sure it's the same bell curve from the AoL? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 11:11:19 PM 747 Views

The Tower is restricted to the middle... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 05:35:03 PM 870 Views

Two things... Shannow - 18/12/2009 09:28:25 PM 716 Views

The culling theory... Phelix - 18/12/2009 09:36:34 PM 646 Views

The culling theory applies to the ENTIRE population, not just Aes Sedai... Shannow - 18/12/2009 09:42:31 PM 769 Views

Yes, but Aes Sedai take it to a new level... Phelix - 18/12/2009 09:48:59 PM 832 Views

Re: Yes, but Aes Sedai take it to a new level... Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 10:06:15 PM 637 Views

Several more things... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:26:19 PM 814 Views

You don't understand your own model... Shannow - 18/12/2009 11:38:05 PM 822 Views

So RJ was wrong about Bell Curve distribution? darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:03:24 PM 730 Views

Re: So RJ was wrong about Bell Curve distribution? Sidious - 19/12/2009 06:10:52 PM 687 Views

Its simple really... fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:15:23 PM 701 Views

So, Aviendha trumps RJ? A woman who, as late as tGS, doesn't know what she's doing with the OP? fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:12:42 PM 710 Views

Age-Related Sample Bias Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 06:41:03 PM 672 Views

I have no problem with that...but it implies that the average woman today isn't at 50% of Lanfear... Shannow - 18/12/2009 09:46:00 PM 797 Views

Partially agreed... Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 10:13:46 PM 680 Views

Well, the Aes Sedai are the only group that we have detailed strength info about... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:26:48 PM 785 Views

Sharina is AS ... she'd be dead in a few years if she hadn't gone to the Tower *NM* darius_sedai - 28/12/2009 01:08:20 AM 819 Views

A thought that occured to me, and I'd like your opinion... Phelix - 18/12/2009 07:38:29 PM 669 Views

Well Sharina isn't a sparker and she's the strongest AS darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 07:57:17 PM 674 Views

Yes... Phelix - 18/12/2009 08:01:57 PM 764 Views

Is it just my bad memory or is one of the wondergirls not a sparker? Gher - 18/12/2009 10:12:59 PM 660 Views

I think it's just a bad memory... Phelix - 18/12/2009 10:19:25 PM 654 Views

Easier sulution, and real example. amirebram - 18/12/2009 10:03:20 PM 708 Views

And that is indeed the solution I feel most comfortable with... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:08:40 PM 683 Views

Re: And that is indeed the solution I feel most comfortable with... Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:39:31 AM 921 Views

Agree, but a little more curvy is better

amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:17:16 PM 612 Views

*facepalm* BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 10:13:16 PM 710 Views

That's just the normalized value graphed on a log scale. amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:20:41 PM 668 Views

Dude, Seriously? Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 10:19:25 PM 707 Views

Indeed, and that's why I propose that... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:31:23 PM 687 Views

So RJ used two separate scales, one actual one relative, to explain the same thing?

fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:33:20 PM 618 Views

Yes, "Bell Curve" does not mean Gausian. Or normal distribution. amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:24:10 PM 668 Views

I'm sorry, but I've never heard of a non-Gaussian bell curve. Can you prove its existence? *NM* fionwe1987 - 20/12/2009 03:24:22 AM 397 Views

Maybe people in my field just use the term in a non-technical way. We do things with ... amirebram - 21/12/2009 07:24:43 PM 626 Views

It does to RJ Shadowkiller - 20/12/2009 03:12:30 PM 753 Views

Yes, "Bell Curve" does not mean Gausian. Or normal distribution. amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:24:11 PM 642 Views

That's because outliers in IQ tests are excluded form the curve. *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:31:23 PM 399 Views

Really?!?! then what is the definition of a IQ of 200? amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:28:18 PM 981 Views

You can have IQ's above that... fionwe1987 - 20/12/2009 05:09:44 AM 692 Views

I said that in the other post and was half torn to pieces *NM* Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:38:25 AM 348 Views

Eh. Ignore the IQ value and draw it on a linear weight scale amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:26:23 PM 658 Views

Re: The One Power Bell Curve: Proof that it is not centered on 50% of the strongest channeler's stre Kieran - 19/12/2009 06:02:34 PM 626 Views

I like this idea Shadowkiller - 20/12/2009 04:01:28 PM 833 Views

Accidental Post *NM* Shadowkiller - 20/12/2009 07:11:09 PM 395 Views

Mathmatically this is very close to the system I proposed in another thread darius_sedai - 27/12/2009 01:23:51 AM 632 Views

Re: The One Power Bell Curve: taura-tierno - 27/12/2009 10:05:33 PM 774 Views

What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? darius_sedai - 27/12/2009 10:28:13 PM 982 Views

Re: What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? taura-tierno - 28/12/2009 03:19:14 PM 677 Views

Re: What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? darius_sedai - 28/12/2009 03:30:44 PM 874 Views

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<quote id="62840">
<quote id="62831"><quote id="62811"><quote id="62775">Perhaps the distribution would be more Gaussian (bell-shaped) when you consider the whole possible population of channelers rather than just the AS. This is purely speculative, but since in the AoL every possible channeler was found and trained to potential, then perhaps the strength distribution would have been perfectly Gaussian in the AoL.</quote>

And the evidence in the books clearly show that the average Aes Sedai isn't close to 50% as strong as the strongest woman.

Heck, the average Aes Sedai is shown to be less than 50% as strong as Egwene.

So I am perfectly happy to accept a perfect Bell Curve in the Age of Legends. But that wouldn't apply to modern channelers.</quote>
I agree with you that the Aes Sedai are not distributed around 50%.

I do not agree, at least not from the evidence I've seen, that if you included all modern channelers the distribution would still not be at 50% mean. I think to make a proper survey you would need to count all potential channelers who have never been trained, all Sea Folk, all damane, and any other channeling groups I've forgotten.

(Note 1: I tried to make this point in my first post, but I think bringing up the AoL was a distraction.
Note 2: My count is highly speculative, but I'm not saying this distribution is true, merely possible.)

So to reiterate, if you're only arguing about AS, then I agree. They are, on average, pretty weak. If you're expanding the argument to all female channelers of the Age, then I'm not so sure.</quote>

1 Aes Sedai - Nynaeve
1 Aiel      - Someryn
1 Sea Folk  - Talaan
1 Seanchan  - Alivia
1 random non Aes Sedai Randlander - Sharina

So, if you look at the number of channelers in each group, the proportions seem to be more or less the same.

Out of 1000 Aes Sedai we have one
Out of 2000-3000 Wise Ones we have one - who says she has never met another Wise One close to her strength.
Out of thousands of Sea Folk we have one.
Out of the known damane we have one, although this should increase proportionately as more damane are examined. Nevertheless, as long as the proportion holds true, then it doesn't change the average strength in the population.

Anyway, the point is, we have zero evidence that other channeling groups are any stronger on average than the modern Aes Sedai are.

</quote>

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