Wheel of Time Messageboard: Well, the Aes Sedai are the only group that we have detailed strength info about... by Shannow

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Well, the Aes Sedai are the only group that we have detailed strength info about... Shannow Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 10:26:48 PM

Perhaps the distribution would be more Gaussian (bell-shaped) when you consider the whole possible population of channelers rather than just the AS. This is purely speculative, but since in the AoL every possible channeler was found and trained to potential, then perhaps the strength distribution would have been perfectly Gaussian in the AoL.

And the evidence in the books clearly show that the average Aes Sedai isn't close to 50% as strong as the strongest woman.

Heck, the average Aes Sedai is shown to be less than 50% as strong as Egwene.

So I am perfectly happy to accept a perfect Bell Curve in the Age of Legends. But that wouldn't apply to modern channelers.

I agree with you that the Aes Sedai are not distributed around 50%.

I do not agree, at least not from the evidence I've seen, that if you included all modern channelers the distribution would still not be at 50% mean. I think to make a proper survey you would need to count all potential channelers who have never been trained, all Sea Folk, all damane, and any other channeling groups I've forgotten.

(Note 1: I tried to make this point in my first post, but I think bringing up the AoL was a distraction.
Note 2: My count is highly speculative, but I'm not saying this distribution is true, merely possible.)

So to reiterate, if you're only arguing about AS, then I agree. They are, on average, pretty weak. If you're expanding the argument to all female channelers of the Age, then I'm not so sure.

Anything involving non Aes Sedai channelers would for the most part be pure speculation, so I can't really comment on them, other than to say that there are 5 modern Forsaken strength women, and they are evenly distributed across the various channeling populations:

1 Aes Sedai - Nynaeve
1 Aiel - Someryn
1 Sea Folk - Talaan
1 Seanchan - Alivia
1 random non Aes Sedai Randlander - Sharina

So, if you look at the number of channelers in each group, the proportions seem to be more or less the same.

Out of 1000 Aes Sedai we have one
Out of 2000-3000 Wise Ones we have one - who says she has never met another Wise One close to her strength.
Out of thousands of Sea Folk we have one.
Out of the known damane we have one, although this should increase proportionately as more damane are examined. Nevertheless, as long as the proportion holds true, then it doesn't change the average strength in the population.

Anyway, the point is, we have zero evidence that other channeling groups are any stronger on average than the modern Aes Sedai are.

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The One Power Bell Curve: Proof that it is not centered on 50% of the strongest channeler's strength Shannow - 18/12/2009 08:37:55 AM 1328 Views

I always thought the curve was one sided Asha'man Warder - 18/12/2009 01:17:32 PM 734 Views

The Curve only refers to the channeling population, not to non-channelers. Shannow - 18/12/2009 01:56:25 PM 747 Views

I would say that your sample is flawed. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 18/12/2009 05:02:02 PM 815 Views

well said *NM* darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:12:40 PM 382 Views

It doesn't matter... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:02:38 PM 671 Views

But, it sort of does. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 18/12/2009 10:43:08 PM 724 Views

So you're saying that no modern Aes Sedai are even of average strength? Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:51:01 PM 797 Views

Are you sure it's the same bell curve from the AoL? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 11:11:19 PM 763 Views

The Tower is restricted to the middle... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 05:35:03 PM 889 Views

Two things... Shannow - 18/12/2009 09:28:25 PM 730 Views

The culling theory... Phelix - 18/12/2009 09:36:34 PM 662 Views

The culling theory applies to the ENTIRE population, not just Aes Sedai... Shannow - 18/12/2009 09:42:31 PM 790 Views

Yes, but Aes Sedai take it to a new level... Phelix - 18/12/2009 09:48:59 PM 852 Views

Re: Yes, but Aes Sedai take it to a new level... Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 10:06:15 PM 652 Views

Several more things... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:26:19 PM 826 Views

You don't understand your own model... Shannow - 18/12/2009 11:38:05 PM 839 Views

So RJ was wrong about Bell Curve distribution? darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:03:24 PM 744 Views

Re: So RJ was wrong about Bell Curve distribution? Sidious - 19/12/2009 06:10:52 PM 701 Views

Its simple really... fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:15:23 PM 716 Views

So, Aviendha trumps RJ? A woman who, as late as tGS, doesn't know what she's doing with the OP? fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:12:42 PM 723 Views

Age-Related Sample Bias Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 06:41:03 PM 686 Views

I have no problem with that...but it implies that the average woman today isn't at 50% of Lanfear... Shannow - 18/12/2009 09:46:00 PM 813 Views

Partially agreed... Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 10:13:46 PM 696 Views

Well, the Aes Sedai are the only group that we have detailed strength info about... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:26:48 PM 797 Views

Sharina is AS ... she'd be dead in a few years if she hadn't gone to the Tower *NM* darius_sedai - 28/12/2009 01:08:20 AM 822 Views

A thought that occured to me, and I'd like your opinion... Phelix - 18/12/2009 07:38:29 PM 685 Views

Well Sharina isn't a sparker and she's the strongest AS darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 07:57:17 PM 693 Views

Yes... Phelix - 18/12/2009 08:01:57 PM 777 Views

Is it just my bad memory or is one of the wondergirls not a sparker? Gher - 18/12/2009 10:12:59 PM 677 Views

I think it's just a bad memory... Phelix - 18/12/2009 10:19:25 PM 671 Views

Easier sulution, and real example. amirebram - 18/12/2009 10:03:20 PM 728 Views

And that is indeed the solution I feel most comfortable with... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:08:40 PM 698 Views

Re: And that is indeed the solution I feel most comfortable with... Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:39:31 AM 938 Views

Agree, but a little more curvy is better

amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:17:16 PM 627 Views

*facepalm* BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 10:13:16 PM 720 Views

That's just the normalized value graphed on a log scale. amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:20:41 PM 685 Views

Dude, Seriously? Shadowkiller - 18/12/2009 10:19:25 PM 720 Views

Indeed, and that's why I propose that... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:31:23 PM 702 Views

So RJ used two separate scales, one actual one relative, to explain the same thing?

fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:33:20 PM 638 Views

Yes, "Bell Curve" does not mean Gausian. Or normal distribution. amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:24:10 PM 684 Views

I'm sorry, but I've never heard of a non-Gaussian bell curve. Can you prove its existence? *NM* fionwe1987 - 20/12/2009 03:24:22 AM 402 Views

Maybe people in my field just use the term in a non-technical way. We do things with ... amirebram - 21/12/2009 07:24:43 PM 645 Views

It does to RJ Shadowkiller - 20/12/2009 03:12:30 PM 766 Views

Yes, "Bell Curve" does not mean Gausian. Or normal distribution. amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:24:11 PM 659 Views

That's because outliers in IQ tests are excluded form the curve. *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:31:23 PM 404 Views

Really?!?! then what is the definition of a IQ of 200? amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:28:18 PM 997 Views

You can have IQ's above that... fionwe1987 - 20/12/2009 05:09:44 AM 710 Views

I said that in the other post and was half torn to pieces *NM* Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:38:25 AM 350 Views

Eh. Ignore the IQ value and draw it on a linear weight scale amirebram - 19/12/2009 11:26:23 PM 677 Views

Re: The One Power Bell Curve: Proof that it is not centered on 50% of the strongest channeler's stre Kieran - 19/12/2009 06:02:34 PM 641 Views

I like this idea Shadowkiller - 20/12/2009 04:01:28 PM 845 Views

Accidental Post *NM* Shadowkiller - 20/12/2009 07:11:09 PM 400 Views

Mathmatically this is very close to the system I proposed in another thread darius_sedai - 27/12/2009 01:23:51 AM 648 Views

Re: The One Power Bell Curve: taura-tierno - 27/12/2009 10:05:33 PM 791 Views

What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? darius_sedai - 27/12/2009 10:28:13 PM 992 Views

Re: What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? taura-tierno - 28/12/2009 03:19:14 PM 687 Views

Re: What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? darius_sedai - 28/12/2009 03:30:44 PM 890 Views

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<quote id="62840">
<quote id="62831"><quote id="62811"><quote id="62775">Perhaps the distribution would be more Gaussian (bell-shaped) when you consider the whole possible population of channelers rather than just the AS. This is purely speculative, but since in the AoL every possible channeler was found and trained to potential, then perhaps the strength distribution would have been perfectly Gaussian in the AoL.</quote>

And the evidence in the books clearly show that the average Aes Sedai isn't close to 50% as strong as the strongest woman.

Heck, the average Aes Sedai is shown to be less than 50% as strong as Egwene.

So I am perfectly happy to accept a perfect Bell Curve in the Age of Legends. But that wouldn't apply to modern channelers.</quote>
I agree with you that the Aes Sedai are not distributed around 50%.

I do not agree, at least not from the evidence I've seen, that if you included all modern channelers the distribution would still not be at 50% mean. I think to make a proper survey you would need to count all potential channelers who have never been trained, all Sea Folk, all damane, and any other channeling groups I've forgotten.

(Note 1: I tried to make this point in my first post, but I think bringing up the AoL was a distraction.
Note 2: My count is highly speculative, but I'm not saying this distribution is true, merely possible.)

So to reiterate, if you're only arguing about AS, then I agree. They are, on average, pretty weak. If you're expanding the argument to all female channelers of the Age, then I'm not so sure.</quote>

1 Aes Sedai - Nynaeve
1 Aiel      - Someryn
1 Sea Folk  - Talaan
1 Seanchan  - Alivia
1 random non Aes Sedai Randlander - Sharina

So, if you look at the number of channelers in each group, the proportions seem to be more or less the same.

Out of 1000 Aes Sedai we have one
Out of 2000-3000 Wise Ones we have one - who says she has never met another Wise One close to her strength.
Out of thousands of Sea Folk we have one.
Out of the known damane we have one, although this should increase proportionately as more damane are examined. Nevertheless, as long as the proportion holds true, then it doesn't change the average strength in the population.

Anyway, the point is, we have zero evidence that other channeling groups are any stronger on average than the modern Aes Sedai are.

</quote>

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