Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
Sidious Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.
Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.
First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.
But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.
The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.
For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?
Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.
First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.
But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.
The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.
For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?
Because the series doesn't support it at all. For all the ranting and raving, there is no evidence that two women together are as powerful as the strongest channeler possible. But there are many quotes that theoretically and demonstrably show that this is wrong.
Tell me, how does Rand snap Verin and Alanna's connections to saidar like threads if those women have strengths of 50 or more? Why does it take 13 women to shield any man when three would do a bang up job? Why were circles of three and four sent after the Forsaken instead of groups of two? Why does Lews Therin say he can handle any three women if they aren't Forsaken strength?
You know, there are really lots of quotes like this, but this incessant raving about the bell curve is tiresome. To contradict most of the quotes in the series based on this idea is insane. There's no proof that the curve clusters around the mean, and plenty of proof that Aes Sedai are only a fraction of Rand/Lanfear's strength. The peak is clearly at a lower level. And yes, I do think that a third of women are weaker than Daigian because Egwene herself says that most novices she's picked up are very weak - a fact that you continuously cite as irrelevant despite it being there in black and white.
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This message last edited by Sidious on 18/12/2009 at 04:33:19 AM
The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM
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I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here...
17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM
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Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here...
17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM
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Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more...
17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM
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Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more...
17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM
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Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM*
17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM
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why?
17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM
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Re: why?
17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM
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I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point
17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM
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and yet RJ does
17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM
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Re: and yet RJ does
17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM
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Re: and yet RJ does
18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM
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No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it!
18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM
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Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it!
19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM
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Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it!
19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM
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Let's work with your figures...
17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM
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Re: Let's work with your figures...
17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM
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You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM*
17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM
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Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake.
17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM
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Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake.
17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM
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Re: two women holding Nynaeve
17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM
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Re: two women holding Nynaeve
17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM
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I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block.
17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM
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but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential
17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM
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What? Where? *NM*
18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM
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I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books
18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM
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Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength
17/12/2009 07:46:55 PM
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Re: Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength
17/12/2009 07:55:38 PM
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What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to
17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM
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It means even Moghedien is vastly stronger than the average modern Aes Sedai...
17/12/2009 05:48:09 PM
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Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to
17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM
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Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM
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Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM
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uhm.... yes she knows
17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM
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Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM
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Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM
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Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him
17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM
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And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai.
17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM
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How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that?
17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM
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Elayne says Egwene was at her full strength in TSR, and thus was stronger than she currently was.
17/12/2009 10:25:31 PM
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Elayne says Egwene was forced and was thus currently stronger
17/12/2009 10:51:28 PM
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Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section!
17/12/2009 11:23:20 PM
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Re: Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section!
17/12/2009 11:25:31 PM
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Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM*
17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM
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This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use...
17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM
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But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM
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I think they are secretly just trying to make Lanfear appear that much stronger *NM*
17/12/2009 11:17:38 PM
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You also forget something.
17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM
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That has nothing to do with what I said...
18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM
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Re: That has nothing to do with what I said...
18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM
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Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai".
18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM
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Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM*
18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM
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I cannot. That's the point...
18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM
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The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15...
17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM
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In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now?
18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM
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Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now?
18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM
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What do you mean, relative scale?
18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM
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OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me
18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM
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1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range...
18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM
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Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative
18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM
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The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM
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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM
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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM
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You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence...
18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM
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Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate...
18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM
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Explain one thing to me...
18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM
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Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM*
18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM
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Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote.
18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM
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which is also suspect
19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM
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OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then.
18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM
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Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM
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Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM
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I've discussed this before...
18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM
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Re: I've discussed this before...
18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM
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Re: I've discussed this before...
18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM
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Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself...
18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM
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Why are you entertaining this?
18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM
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The other poster showed no proof that RJ's math was wrong. Read what he said again! *NM*
18/12/2009 06:09:49 PM
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Verin's circle matched Granedal dude. And average strength does not mean great strength.
18/12/2009 06:07:51 PM
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Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself...
19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM
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I can't imagine it being about skill
19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM
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of course it's about skill
19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM
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Not it isn't!
19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM
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If she was only thinking about strength why then didn't she have a plan to add Sheriam
19/12/2009 07:09:08 PM
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