And I agree with much, having made similar points in previous posts.

Absolutely the Shadow was instrumental in pushing Rand's breakdown, and that breakdown in turn become the greatest immediate threat to the Light. It appears Rand was able to defeat this attempt by the end of the book, but we can't be sure. He's used the TP, and has been touched by the DO. That may yet have significant implications. Plus, the status of his merger with Moridin is unknown, and we can be sure there will be more plotting and action by the Shadow.

A few points:

I agree that the Rand/Moridin meeting was engineered by Moridin. And the overall philosophy of the nature fo the Wheel was important reagarding Rand's breakdown. But, you failed to mention the not-so-subtle hint that balefire is required to kill Forsaken. Moridin didn't let this slip on accident, it was purposeful. It drove Rand to using balefire more indiscriminately, wich is good for the Shadow.

I'm still not sure if I can believe that Moridin (or really the DO for that matter, as Moridin made it clear in the Forsaken meeting and the presence of SH made it clear that the freeing of Semi was directly due to the DO's orders) could anticipate that Rand would reach for the TP. It makes sense from the readers perspective, but it seems to be asking a lot of the characters to have predicted this. I guess with the Moridin/Rand connection becoming more significant, Moridin might have been more inclined to feel that Rand would reach for the TP through him. But this is speculating a lot on a bond that even Moridin admits he fails to understand...just seems a bit of a stretch to assume that Rand would have done that.

And speaking of channeling the TP, it's not even possible for us to know exactly how this happens (if there have been specific details provided, I'm forgetting them right now). We know the DO has to grant the ability, or rather controls who can access it, but is the mechanism the same as for channeling Saidin/Saidar? If so, why has nobody else encountered this mysterious power...trying to channel it (and likely being denied access)? Is the TP there for anybody to reach, and only those the DO allows can actually sense it? There's much we don't know yet, but I think we can say the the availability of the TP is not such a simple thing. IMO Rand used Moridin as a conduit to channel the TP...so this may skirt any of the issues above. It may be that without the Moridin bond, Rand would have no ability to channel the TP, whether he wanted to or not. It also may be that the DO can't control Rand's use of the TP if he's using Moridin as a conduit, unless the DO were to deny Moridin continued use of it.

But moving on to the Graendal incident. You've failed to explain just how the timing was worked out regarding the compulsed fodder Rand sent in to confirm his success. By your theory, Graendal either had to weave the compulsion in such a way as to have it dissipate at precisely the right moment (and that's ignoring that Graendal also had to predict precisely how Rand would confront her...which stretches the imagination a bit), or she had to have been listening in and somehow had a "remote control" off-switch to shut the compulsion down at the right moment. Either way, it seems a bit of a stretch. Unless the Rand/Moridin merge was so complete that Moridin is able to read Rand's every thought (which I think we can say this isn't the case, as Rand gives no sign of a greater understanding of Moridin, and the merge has always worked both ways) I can't see how Graendal could have predicted Rand's plans. That he would use balefire? Yes. But the elaborate use of the messenger? The balefiring of the entire facility? The precise timing of how it all went down? I don't know.