the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
the Mean is where the highest number of individuals will fall statistically. The Units of Saidar an individual can wield is not what makes them "100" or "1" its the relative rarity of which that strength appears in nature. We do not have a single real number that maps an individuals actual strength in the power so we cannot do more than guess at this.
With that Said we can make the assumption that Lanfear is also 5.730729 SD from the Mean, but it doesn't tell us how much stronger she is than Morgase or the individual at the Mean. Or what number the Mean falls at on the scale.
Realistically Lanfear may be able to wield 1000 units of Saidar and Morgase 1 unit, but that tells us nothing of how many units the individual at the Mean can wield. RJ told us there is a Bell Curve distribution, but he gave us vague descriptions of actual power ... things like "considerably" or "very weak" but no indication of what that really means.
Personally I've placed the 21 level list as the Bell Curve, which would make the level 11 channelers at Mean with 10 SDs on each side (yes I know this isn't perfect). If you place all the FS at levels 20-21 and women of significant strength, from 16-19 you can then place Morgase at level 1 and the significantly weak channelers on levels 2-6 meaning AS all fall between 7-15 (levels 7 and 8 being Accepted). Which would square with the series quotes etc ... most AS will be Mean and below levels 9-11 or Daigian-Merilille (too weak to Travel) women AS consider strong falling at levels 12-15 or probably Verin-Moiraine in strength.
Another way to consider this is from RJs comments about levels
Forsaken Level ... Nynaeve, Sharina, the Forsaken
One Step Lower we have
"Exceptional"Level ... Egwene, Cadsuane, Bode, Nicola, Mielyn, Kerene
One step below that we have
"Very Strong" Level ... Moiraine, Siuan, Lelaine, Romanda, Elaida, Sheriam, Leane, and the other very strong Sisters like Kiruna, Bera and Galina I'd estimate that the weakest women at this range are likely Nesune, Katerine or Coiren.
Below that we have "Above average Sisters", women of influence in the Tower, but not at the very top rung ... likely Tarna or perhaps Masuri and Rafela at the top of this level, in the mid-range of that would be Verin, Seonid, Merana, Alana and someone like Merilille, Eldrith, Covarla etc.. at the lower range of the level
Middling sisters would encompass women like Adeleas and Vandene (who I would consider the MEAN level Channelers) This is where I believe the vast majority of the unnamed AS sit.
Weak Sisters would be women like Siuan and Leane are now, Cabriana, Kumira and, of course, Daigian.
Then there is the 37.5% of women who pretty much fall under the "negligible" category, I'd say there are actually many levels within this category ... New Moiraine, Alise, Sorilea, Morgase etc... perhaps Moiraine is 2x Alise who is in turn 3x Sorilea etc... but these are all Channelers of insignificant power. To do anything of real note they would need to have an angreal or lead a circle.
We can benchmark certain things at certain power levels such as Egwene level is about 2x Moiraine level, and that Moiraine level is about 3x Weak Sister level ... and we can assume that Weak Sister level is probably many times greater than even the highest level of "negligible" ... Daigian maybe 5x Sorilea who may be 15x Morgase ... but that doesn't really tell us a whole lot
Personally I think each level on the 21 level list comprises a smaller range of power (in terms of units) so Morgase level can wield 1 unit, but Sorilea's level may vary more and encompass women who can wield between 11-14 units, Alise level between 35-50 units, on the flip side level 21 may encompass women who can wield anywhere from 400-450 units, Level 20 would be women who can hold 365-400 units, that would allow for Graendal to be a 21 but still noticeably weaker than Lanfear, and Moghedien being at level 20 and still being much weaker than Lanfear, and also allows for Merana, Alana and Verin being on the same level and being unsure of which is stronger without an actual contest.
With that Said we can make the assumption that Lanfear is also 5.730729 SD from the Mean, but it doesn't tell us how much stronger she is than Morgase or the individual at the Mean. Or what number the Mean falls at on the scale.
Realistically Lanfear may be able to wield 1000 units of Saidar and Morgase 1 unit, but that tells us nothing of how many units the individual at the Mean can wield. RJ told us there is a Bell Curve distribution, but he gave us vague descriptions of actual power ... things like "considerably" or "very weak" but no indication of what that really means.
Personally I've placed the 21 level list as the Bell Curve, which would make the level 11 channelers at Mean with 10 SDs on each side (yes I know this isn't perfect). If you place all the FS at levels 20-21 and women of significant strength, from 16-19 you can then place Morgase at level 1 and the significantly weak channelers on levels 2-6 meaning AS all fall between 7-15 (levels 7 and 8 being Accepted). Which would square with the series quotes etc ... most AS will be Mean and below levels 9-11 or Daigian-Merilille (too weak to Travel) women AS consider strong falling at levels 12-15 or probably Verin-Moiraine in strength.
Another way to consider this is from RJs comments about levels
Forsaken Level ... Nynaeve, Sharina, the Forsaken
One Step Lower we have
"Exceptional"Level ... Egwene, Cadsuane, Bode, Nicola, Mielyn, Kerene
One step below that we have
"Very Strong" Level ... Moiraine, Siuan, Lelaine, Romanda, Elaida, Sheriam, Leane, and the other very strong Sisters like Kiruna, Bera and Galina I'd estimate that the weakest women at this range are likely Nesune, Katerine or Coiren.
Below that we have "Above average Sisters", women of influence in the Tower, but not at the very top rung ... likely Tarna or perhaps Masuri and Rafela at the top of this level, in the mid-range of that would be Verin, Seonid, Merana, Alana and someone like Merilille, Eldrith, Covarla etc.. at the lower range of the level
Middling sisters would encompass women like Adeleas and Vandene (who I would consider the MEAN level Channelers) This is where I believe the vast majority of the unnamed AS sit.
Weak Sisters would be women like Siuan and Leane are now, Cabriana, Kumira and, of course, Daigian.
Then there is the 37.5% of women who pretty much fall under the "negligible" category, I'd say there are actually many levels within this category ... New Moiraine, Alise, Sorilea, Morgase etc... perhaps Moiraine is 2x Alise who is in turn 3x Sorilea etc... but these are all Channelers of insignificant power. To do anything of real note they would need to have an angreal or lead a circle.
We can benchmark certain things at certain power levels such as Egwene level is about 2x Moiraine level, and that Moiraine level is about 3x Weak Sister level ... and we can assume that Weak Sister level is probably many times greater than even the highest level of "negligible" ... Daigian maybe 5x Sorilea who may be 15x Morgase ... but that doesn't really tell us a whole lot
Personally I think each level on the 21 level list comprises a smaller range of power (in terms of units) so Morgase level can wield 1 unit, but Sorilea's level may vary more and encompass women who can wield between 11-14 units, Alise level between 35-50 units, on the flip side level 21 may encompass women who can wield anywhere from 400-450 units, Level 20 would be women who can hold 365-400 units, that would allow for Graendal to be a 21 but still noticeably weaker than Lanfear, and Moghedien being at level 20 and still being much weaker than Lanfear, and also allows for Merana, Alana and Verin being on the same level and being unsure of which is stronger without an actual contest.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 22/11/2012 at 04:19:29 AM
How many standard deviations is Lanfear
15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM
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Hmm...
15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
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see we CAN agree on stuff
15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
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18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
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Re:
18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
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Re:
19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
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Re:
19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
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They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM
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Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM
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Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM
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Hmmm...
20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM
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Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed
20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM
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Nope...
20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM
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I believe she is being over dramatic
20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM
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Keep believing that...
20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM
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*shrugs*
20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM
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Tired and forkroot are the same now?
20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM
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No it's the literary device
20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM
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Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean
19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM
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You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution
19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM
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That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it.
19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM
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keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM*
20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM
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Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics.
20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM
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Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless
16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM
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I don't really agree
18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM
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Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM
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Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM
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Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
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You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM*
18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM
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You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved.
18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM
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Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created.
18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM
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It doesn't matter what figure you use...
18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM
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What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength?
18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM
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Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM
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Re: Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
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You're right, though its 37.5%
19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM
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Oops, typo!
19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM
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Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean
19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM
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Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM
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Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM
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Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM
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Forkroot in every case
20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM
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No!
20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM
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I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this
20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM
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You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused.
20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM
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Not going to argue this with you.
20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM
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Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM
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let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength
20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM
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Enough!
20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM
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LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM*
20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM
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Re: Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM
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Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than
20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM
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None of this is backed by any evidence...
20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM
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who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more?
20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM
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Nope...
20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM
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wrong
20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM
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Better evidence? LOL!
20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM
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Huh? How did you come to that conclusion?
20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM
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BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene?
20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM
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I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene
20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM
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Interesting, but let's go with your figures...
19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM
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Indeed
19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM
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Rand is sort of a special case
20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM
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Regarding Mesaana...
20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM
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You continue to mix two things
20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM
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No
20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM
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You are mistaken
20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM
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Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means
19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM
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It's irrelevant
19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM
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Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength.
19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM
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Daigian
19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM
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It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote
19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM
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You missed my point
19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
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Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM
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Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM
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Re: Sure you can
19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM
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Care to explain this...
19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM
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Indeed
20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM
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Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo.
20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM
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Well duh.
20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM
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Incorrect.
20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM
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No
20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM
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You're integrating without lower limits...
20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM
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We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM
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Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM
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You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM
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Re: You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM
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Morghase is a placeholder...
20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM
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Well...
18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM
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Re: Well...
19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM
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Wow.
19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM
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Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM
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Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM
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this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM
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Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM
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I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery
20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM
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Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable...
21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
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the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
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Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM
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I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power
22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM
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