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Re: You missed my point DomA Send a noteboard - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM
Daigian could well be lower than the 62.5% number RJ stated as we know the Tower has been weakening for centuries.


Daigian meets the current standards, if barely (if she didn't she would not have be allowed to pass the test for the shawl, she'd had remained an Accepted, constrained to remain in TV). RJ said only 32.5% of women are strong enough to meet them. It's possible the standards have been lowered at some point, though the AS seem to imply they did not (one of them mentioned at some point that despite the decreasing strength and the fact less and less candidates could meet the standards, they were not to lower them...) but 32,5% of women was the current state of things anyway (or RJ would have specified the number applied to a past state of things, not the current one...), and that forcibly includes Daigian at the minimal required level to be allowed to past the test.





My point being a combination of declining numbers and declining strength could easily lead to declining standards. Daigian was clearly dedicated to earning the Shawl, the AS may well have decided to lower the standard to keep numbers up. Obviously I'm in pure speculation territory, but Daigian could just as easily be an example of the decline of the WT as anything else. Ultimately it has little bearing on Bell Curves etc...


The context of the Q&A makes it very clear RJ was referring to the story's contemporary WT standards.


She lies exactly on that boundary that RJ was referring to.


I actually think she lies below this boundary. She seems to be too weak to become an AS but got through using perseverance. The fact that most AS treat her as little better than a wilder demonstrates this. I think she is significantly below the next strongest AS, whomever that is. It makes no difference though, Daigian's strength has never been a direct marker of OP strength like Lanfear or Egwene's has. She's merely a name for the weakest AS level, and whether its Daigain or Vandene or Adeleas makes no difference.


RJ said 37.5% of female channelers fall below the level required to qualify for the Shawl.

It is clearly stressed that Daigian passed this test by a hairsbreadth.

Hence, Daigian clearly falls on this boundary. Put differently, you cannot be weaker than Daigian and still pass the test.

So therefore we know to a very high degree of accuracy that Daigian falls on this 37.5% boundary, or as close to it as a living channeler can apparently be.

From that point we can extrapolate the rest, as we know the number of SD's that cover the percentage of the population between 37.5% and 50%. It is 0.32SD exactly, if I recall correctly. One third of an SD, rounded for quick reference purposes.

The rest of the formula falls into place then, proving that a normal distribution is impossible, given the strength facts we are given in the series.


It doesn't matter who the weakest AS is. I agree that she is that marker, but its also irrelevant if its someone else because Daigain doesn't appear anywhere else with proportionality e.g. "Daigian was less than half as strong as Verin". I'm merely voicing a private theory that Daigian is probably a lot weaker than the woman above her. She spent more time as a novice and accepted than anyone in living memory. It doesn't affect anyone's theories though, but I honestly believe that Aes Sedai have strengths of between 10 and 30, that the 10 is the lower limit shared by several women, and that Daigian is on 6 or 8.


I can't remember which AS (Sheriam?), but one of them clearly said they allow no one who don't meet the strength standard to risk passing their test. They have a benchmark strength, and Daigian meets it, barely. The fact they have this standard and don't alter it is partly responsible for their dwindling numbers: they reject more and more candidates. Daigian is probably exceptional for the fact it's rare for women with barely meeting the standard to persevere, not get demolished by the prejudices against her strength and eventually pass the test. Nowhere it's suggested she's exceptional for having been allowed to pass the test despite not meeting the strength benchmark.

RJ was giving a reference to an inquiring reader. It would be totally worthless on its own if it excluded anyone with the shawl. It would be debatable if an Aes Sedai mentionned it in the series where it could be subject to contextual distortion or prejudices and all, but in a Q&A from RJ there's no doubt this includes all Aes Sedai.

The purpose of Daigian was manifold: serving as reference to give us a sense of how many women the WT rejects; implying that the testing puts too much weight on the ability to channel under stress (it's a good test to determine if a woman should be let to join a battlefield, it's a terrible test to judge if a woman should get the AS status) and blocks women who would have been fully trained as AS in the AOL - not to mention the dice are loaded because low standing women like Daigian need many times the intelligence, strength of character and sheer will of any high potential women to withstand a system which will seek to demolish their self-confidence and self-esteem. Her last purpose was to show how badly the Tower taught Nynaeve. Another purpose of Daigian, her first one in the series, was to show that Cadsuane had very different criteria than the WT's to judge the worth of sisters that she'd value a lot someone like Daigian over fairly strong (in OP) AS she judges weak in personality and absolutely unfit for the shawl. It's not that she believes the OP standards are wrong, it's that she believes the Tower no longer does its job at forming the stronger candidates. She considers the women strong in the power generally weak and flawed in character because their teachers made way too much of their OP potential and didn't care enough to hone the rest. It's why she's so judgmental with Nynaeve - the way she was (not) trained and educated properly by the sisters because she outclassed everyone alive in OP potential is to her symptomatic in an extreme way of what's wrong with the way today's AS are trained: you have to be weak to deserve the full exacting training/teaching everyone has a right to get, if you're too strong they'll turn corners, with Nynaeve to the point of sheer absurdity (AS barely bothered to train or teach her at all!). Nynaeve had a high potential even by AOL standards, and her likes had not been seen in over a 1000 years, and yet she's the woman the WT invested the least efforts in training properly (and not much better for Elayne and Egwene, also let too soon off the leash)... It's not only they put too much value on raw potential, it's also that you get the sense for many strong-ish sisters training Nynaeve properly would mean giving extra advantages to a woman who will soon stand above you. It also happened with women like Siuan and Moiraine, in a less extreme way. Moiraine had it right in NS though she didn't fully grasp the implications: your training really starts only once you've gained the shawl, and by then it's self-teaching. It's as if despite claiming the opposite the AS unconscious wish the stronger women to gain the shawl with the least additional advantages beside what they can't change - your raw potential - because the way the system works, you'll enter the hierarchy standing at an high rank right away, and they fear you, fear what will happen if they give you a full training that will make you formidable fairly young. The more devious and ambitious like Elaida even seek to bully recruits with more potential and put them in her debt, knowing it might come handy one day to balance the advantages you'll have over her. No wonder the more experienced sisters resent you rather then see in you someone to train the best they can. With Nynaeve that absurdity went overboard. The Yellows were wholly uninterested in her, knowing all too well she'd come to their Ajah and would get the shawl soon enough, and when she did she'd stand ridiculously higher than any but the Ajah leaders, and this is bad enough already, they have no interest to see you also enter their Ajah with a proper education and a potential honed as perfectly as the Tower can manage (the sort they gave to Daigian...), because then you'd be way too formidable to oppose. It's a vicious circle: the more it goes on, the less well-trained women are each generation (and not only in the OP - the weaves they all learn). Now it's up to a woman with mere months of OP training to make calls on how AS should be trained (and she's about to make a very bad call with her plan to raise as many new sisters as she can... she'll end up with a whole crop of even more badly trained/educated sisters after TG... as happened after the Trolloc Wars, leading to a sharp decline phase in the Tower. Except of course the whole idea is to justify some radical changes by the end of the series, so Egwene's bad calls are necessary plot devices).

Even in Cadsuane's days it was like this, though the vicious circle logic helping, it's probably worse now. Her real training, the one the envious sisters she had for teachers denied her, she got from the toothless wilder.

The whole absurdity of Nynaeve's situation is clearest when you consider she could have chosen any Ajah. She could have become the highest standing Green, able to pull rank in all sort of situations, with barely scraps of understanding of warfare. Do you see Nynaeve as a potential AS leader discussing military plans with the likes of Bryne or Bashere? She could have become the highest standing White sisters, an Ajah that fancies itself the group of finest logicians and philosophers, fountains of wisdom, yet Nynaeve would have had barely scraps of knowledge of logic and philosophy. She'd have been the highest ranking white... and the one the Ajah shivered every time she opened her mouth in public... She could have been the highest Gray... the one who would have run for cover if nobles asked her to judge their case involving intricates laws she'd never even heard of, or the highest Brown whose barely read any book and has no idea what being a scholar demands....

Egwene is about to create a whole lot of full Sisters just like that, rather than not awarding them a shawl they sure don't deserve any t ime soon but more wisely have experienced Sisters develop tests to measure which Novices or Accepted are fit to fight in TG.

It's in sharp contrast with the systems of the WO who give their best to any apprentice. The SF have somewhat the opposite flaw to the WT's system: they give all they have to their very strong but see the weakest ones as not worth such efforts.



This message last edited by DomA on 19/11/2012 at 02:42:23 PM
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How many standard deviations is Lanfear - 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM 2074 Views
Well... - 15/11/2012 07:02:45 PM 1112 Views
Hmm... - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM 1213 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff - 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM 1064 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM 958 Views
We've always been close with everything except the scale - 18/11/2012 10:29:07 PM 994 Views
Re: - 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM 1163 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM 991 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM 996 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM 1000 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM 1204 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM 950 Views
Hmmm... - 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM 1018 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed - 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM 975 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM 1025 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic - 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM 925 Views
Keep believing that... - 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM 1054 Views
*shrugs* - 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM 1004 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now? - 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM 911 Views
No it's the literary device - 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM 1031 Views
This is getting ridiculous... - 20/11/2012 04:43:13 PM 911 Views
You are missing my point completely - 20/11/2012 04:50:46 PM 872 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean - 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM 975 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution - 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM 1030 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it. - 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM 993 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM 654 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics. - 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM 955 Views
Go read Fionwe's post about it *NM* - 20/11/2012 02:33:19 PM 669 Views
Is that before or after she started juicing? - 15/11/2012 11:04:14 PM 970 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM 821 Views
Are you sure that it is a normal distribution? - 16/11/2012 04:21:02 PM 1045 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless - 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM 947 Views
I don't really agree - 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM 891 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM 961 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM 932 Views
probably ... Lanfear/Cyndane is clearly remarkably skilled - 20/11/2012 02:35:09 PM 971 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM 990 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM* - 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM 637 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved. - 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM 835 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created. - 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM 958 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use... - 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM 839 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength? - 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM 981 Views
We have a limit for Daigian's strength, as you well know. - 18/11/2012 05:41:49 PM 932 Views
Are you kidding me? - 18/11/2012 09:07:38 PM 1094 Views
Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM 993 Views
Re: Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 941 Views
You're right, though its 37.5% - 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM 906 Views
Oops, typo! - 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM 977 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean - 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM 928 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM 871 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM 798 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM 916 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM 945 Views
Forkroot in every case - 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM 925 Views
No! - 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM 907 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this - 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM 925 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused. - 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM 889 Views
Not going to argue this with you. - 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM 861 Views
Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM 958 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength - 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM 849 Views
Enough! - 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM 937 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM 625 Views
What a brilliant argument! - 20/11/2012 05:25:18 PM 972 Views
this is why I refuse to continue this debate - 20/11/2012 05:31:11 PM 886 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM 981 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM 984 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:31:50 PM 924 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:42:53 PM 922 Views
Excuse me? - 20/11/2012 05:28:48 PM 976 Views
see we can agree on the relative strength of Egwene v. Forsaken - 20/11/2012 05:35:07 PM 926 Views
??? - 20/11/2012 05:37:01 PM 1001 Views
2 middling sisters - 20/11/2012 05:45:27 PM 946 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM 858 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM 907 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM 943 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence... - 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM 859 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more? - 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM 861 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM 903 Views
wrong - 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM 836 Views
My bad. Mized up 1/3 and 2/3. - 20/11/2012 05:05:05 PM 928 Views
gotcha *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:46:21 PM 584 Views
Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM 908 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion? - 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM 900 Views
Exactly *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:55:28 PM 873 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene? - 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM 818 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene - 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM 924 Views
Re: Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 05:00:47 PM 831 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures... - 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM 972 Views
Indeed - 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM 1012 Views
Rand is sort of a special case - 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM 839 Views
Regarding Mesaana... - 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM 910 Views
You continue to mix two things - 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM 840 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM 1058 Views
You are mistaken - 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM 918 Views
Yes she did Darius! - 20/11/2012 05:27:36 PM 855 Views
Yet there is no duel - 20/11/2012 06:01:17 PM 838 Views
Explain the .3xSD thing to me... - 19/11/2012 04:58:57 PM 1080 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means - 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM 863 Views
It's irrelevant - 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM 934 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength. - 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM 899 Views
Daigian - 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM 921 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote - 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM 944 Views
You missed my point - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM 879 Views
Re: You missed my point - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM 952 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM 887 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM 865 Views
Which would make an average AS around a 30 - 20/11/2012 04:58:56 PM 736 Views
Re: Sure you can - 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM 1007 Views
Care to explain this... - 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM 848 Views
Indeed - 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM 1070 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo. - 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM 886 Views
Well duh. - 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM 993 Views
Incorrect. - 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM 979 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM 954 Views
Re: No - 20/11/2012 04:48:36 PM 949 Views
That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:18:46 PM 819 Views
Re: That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:31:03 PM 1248 Views
You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM 929 Views
Re: You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 04:37:57 PM 962 Views
It matters. - 20/11/2012 05:22:40 PM 926 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM 773 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM 966 Views
You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM 860 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM 895 Views
Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM 962 Views
Re: Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:49:54 PM 1149 Views
Why? - 20/11/2012 05:23:29 PM 943 Views
Re: Why? - 20/11/2012 05:36:45 PM 1118 Views
Well... - 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM 996 Views
Re: Well... - 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM 976 Views
Wow. - 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM 1022 Views
Re: Wow. - 19/11/2012 04:26:09 PM 1029 Views
Some points - 19/11/2012 06:03:00 PM 1033 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM 871 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM 774 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM 968 Views
Agreed - 20/11/2012 08:13:37 AM 997 Views
probably - 20/11/2012 06:18:45 PM 879 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM 908 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery - 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM 914 Views
Indeed... - 21/11/2012 05:44:18 PM 890 Views
I agree - 22/11/2012 01:43:02 AM 1139 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM 918 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM 981 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM 1273 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power - 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM 1071 Views
Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM 1204 Views
Disregard this post *NM* - 23/11/2012 03:02:24 PM 840 Views

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