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You missed my point Sidious Send a noteboard - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
Daigian could well be lower than the 62.5% number RJ stated as we know the Tower has been weakening for centuries.


Daigian meets the current standards, if barely (if she didn't she would not have be allowed to pass the test for the shawl, she'd had remained an Accepted, constrained to remain in TV). RJ said only 32.5% of women are strong enough to meet them. It's possible the standards have been lowered at some point, though the AS seem to imply they did not (one of them mentioned at some point that despite the decreasing strength and the fact less and less candidates could meet the standards, they were not to lower them...) but 32,5% of women was the current state of things anyway (or RJ would have specified the number applied to a past state of things, not the current one...), and that forcibly includes Daigian at the minimal required level to be allowed to past the test.





My point being a combination of declining numbers and declining strength could easily lead to declining standards. Daigian was clearly dedicated to earning the Shawl, the AS may well have decided to lower the standard to keep numbers up. Obviously I'm in pure speculation territory, but Daigian could just as easily be an example of the decline of the WT as anything else. Ultimately it has little bearing on Bell Curves etc...


The context of the Q&A makes it very clear RJ was referring to the story's contemporary WT standards.


She lies exactly on that boundary that RJ was referring to.


I actually think she lies below this boundary. She seems to be too weak to become an AS but got through using perseverance. The fact that most AS treat her as little better than a wilder demonstrates this. I think she is significantly below the next strongest AS, whomever that is. It makes no difference though, Daigian's strength has never been a direct marker of OP strength like Lanfear or Egwene's has. She's merely a name for the weakest AS level, and whether its Daigain or Vandene or Adeleas makes no difference.


RJ said 37.5% of female channelers fall below the level required to qualify for the Shawl.

It is clearly stressed that Daigian passed this test by a hairsbreadth.

Hence, Daigian clearly falls on this boundary. Put differently, you cannot be weaker than Daigian and still pass the test.

So therefore we know to a very high degree of accuracy that Daigian falls on this 37.5% boundary, or as close to it as a living channeler can apparently be.

From that point we can extrapolate the rest, as we know the number of SD's that cover the percentage of the population between 37.5% and 50%. It is 0.32SD exactly, if I recall correctly. One third of an SD, rounded for quick reference purposes.

The rest of the formula falls into place then, proving that a normal distribution is impossible, given the strength facts we are given in the series.


It doesn't matter who the weakest AS is. I agree that she is that marker, but its also irrelevant if its someone else because Daigain doesn't appear anywhere else with proportionality e.g. "Daigian was less than half as strong as Verin". I'm merely voicing a private theory that Daigian is probably a lot weaker than the woman above her. She spent more time as a novice and accepted than anyone in living memory. It doesn't affect anyone's theories though, but I honestly believe that Aes Sedai have strengths of between 10 and 30, that the 10 is the lower limit shared by several women, and that Daigian is on 6 or 8.
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How many standard deviations is Lanfear - 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM 2080 Views
Well... - 15/11/2012 07:02:45 PM 1115 Views
Hmm... - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM 1216 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff - 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM 1067 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM 961 Views
We've always been close with everything except the scale - 18/11/2012 10:29:07 PM 998 Views
Re: - 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM 1165 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM 995 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM 999 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM 1004 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM 1208 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM 953 Views
Hmmm... - 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM 1021 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed - 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM 978 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM 1029 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic - 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM 928 Views
Keep believing that... - 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM 1057 Views
*shrugs* - 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM 1006 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now? - 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM 914 Views
No it's the literary device - 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM 1034 Views
This is getting ridiculous... - 20/11/2012 04:43:13 PM 913 Views
You are missing my point completely - 20/11/2012 04:50:46 PM 874 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean - 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM 978 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution - 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM 1034 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it. - 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM 996 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM 656 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics. - 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM 958 Views
Go read Fionwe's post about it *NM* - 20/11/2012 02:33:19 PM 670 Views
Is that before or after she started juicing? - 15/11/2012 11:04:14 PM 975 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM 826 Views
Are you sure that it is a normal distribution? - 16/11/2012 04:21:02 PM 1049 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless - 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM 949 Views
I don't really agree - 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM 891 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM 965 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM 934 Views
probably ... Lanfear/Cyndane is clearly remarkably skilled - 20/11/2012 02:35:09 PM 975 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM 993 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM* - 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM 638 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved. - 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM 837 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created. - 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM 961 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use... - 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM 840 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength? - 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM 984 Views
We have a limit for Daigian's strength, as you well know. - 18/11/2012 05:41:49 PM 933 Views
Are you kidding me? - 18/11/2012 09:07:38 PM 1098 Views
Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM 994 Views
Re: Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 944 Views
You're right, though its 37.5% - 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM 909 Views
Oops, typo! - 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM 980 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean - 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM 930 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM 874 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM 801 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM 919 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM 947 Views
Forkroot in every case - 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM 928 Views
No! - 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM 910 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this - 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM 928 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused. - 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM 891 Views
Not going to argue this with you. - 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM 864 Views
Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM 962 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength - 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM 852 Views
Enough! - 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM 940 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM 626 Views
What a brilliant argument! - 20/11/2012 05:25:18 PM 975 Views
this is why I refuse to continue this debate - 20/11/2012 05:31:11 PM 890 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM 984 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM 987 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:31:50 PM 927 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:42:53 PM 924 Views
Excuse me? - 20/11/2012 05:28:48 PM 979 Views
see we can agree on the relative strength of Egwene v. Forsaken - 20/11/2012 05:35:07 PM 928 Views
??? - 20/11/2012 05:37:01 PM 1004 Views
2 middling sisters - 20/11/2012 05:45:27 PM 949 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM 861 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM 911 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM 945 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence... - 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM 862 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more? - 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM 864 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM 906 Views
wrong - 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM 839 Views
My bad. Mized up 1/3 and 2/3. - 20/11/2012 05:05:05 PM 931 Views
gotcha *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:46:21 PM 585 Views
Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM 911 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion? - 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM 902 Views
Exactly *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:55:28 PM 875 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene? - 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM 821 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene - 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM 927 Views
Re: Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 05:00:47 PM 834 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures... - 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM 976 Views
Indeed - 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM 1016 Views
Rand is sort of a special case - 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM 841 Views
Regarding Mesaana... - 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM 914 Views
You continue to mix two things - 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM 840 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM 1062 Views
You are mistaken - 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM 921 Views
Yes she did Darius! - 20/11/2012 05:27:36 PM 858 Views
Yet there is no duel - 20/11/2012 06:01:17 PM 840 Views
Explain the .3xSD thing to me... - 19/11/2012 04:58:57 PM 1083 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means - 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM 865 Views
It's irrelevant - 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM 936 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength. - 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM 901 Views
Daigian - 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM 922 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote - 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM 949 Views
You missed my point - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM 881 Views
Re: You missed my point - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM 952 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM 891 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM 868 Views
Which would make an average AS around a 30 - 20/11/2012 04:58:56 PM 738 Views
Re: Sure you can - 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM 1011 Views
Care to explain this... - 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM 852 Views
Indeed - 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM 1073 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo. - 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM 889 Views
Well duh. - 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM 996 Views
Incorrect. - 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM 981 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM 958 Views
Re: No - 20/11/2012 04:48:36 PM 952 Views
That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:18:46 PM 822 Views
Re: That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:31:03 PM 1249 Views
You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM 932 Views
Re: You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 04:37:57 PM 963 Views
It matters. - 20/11/2012 05:22:40 PM 929 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM 775 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM 968 Views
You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM 862 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM 898 Views
Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM 965 Views
Re: Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:49:54 PM 1151 Views
Why? - 20/11/2012 05:23:29 PM 944 Views
Re: Why? - 20/11/2012 05:36:45 PM 1121 Views
Well... - 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM 998 Views
Re: Well... - 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM 979 Views
Wow. - 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM 1024 Views
Re: Wow. - 19/11/2012 04:26:09 PM 1032 Views
Some points - 19/11/2012 06:03:00 PM 1035 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM 874 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM 776 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM 970 Views
Agreed - 20/11/2012 08:13:37 AM 999 Views
probably - 20/11/2012 06:18:45 PM 881 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM 911 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery - 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM 916 Views
Indeed... - 21/11/2012 05:44:18 PM 892 Views
I agree - 22/11/2012 01:43:02 AM 1141 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM 923 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM 982 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM 1276 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power - 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM 1074 Views
Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM 1205 Views
Disregard this post *NM* - 23/11/2012 03:02:24 PM 841 Views

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