Active Users:1121 Time:22/11/2024 01:19:57 PM
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM

So, I went and had a look at some statistics texts, and here are a few juicy quotes (emphasis mine):

---

Self-selection bias is the problem that very often results when survey respondents are allowed to decide entirely for themselves whether or not they want to participate in a survey. To the extent that respondents' propensity for participating in the study is correlated with the substantive topic the researchers are trying to study, there will be self-selection bias in the resulting data.


Nice. But why did you ignore the very next sentence?

In most instances, self-selection will lead to biased data, as the respondents who choose to participate will not well represent the entire target population.


That's exactly what I've been saying. A self-selected sample is not representative of the entire population. 1000 women is too low a sample number when they're self-selected. So you see a bias in one way. The very next 1000 self selected women from the same area might have been biased in the opposite way, or biased even more towards weak women. The point is, in a non-random sample, you'll almost certainly see bias. There is no one reason for this.

---

A voluntary response sample consists of people who choose themselves by responding to a general appeal. Voluntary response samples are biased because people with strong opinions, especially negative opinions, are most likely to respond.

---

This is the case with political poll. In epidemiology (which the current case is closer to, since channeling the OP is not an opinion, it is a genetic and metaphysical predisposition), it is not the strong opinions of respondents that leads to sample skewing.

A sample of convenience is a sample that is not drawn by a well-defined random method. The big problem with samples of convenience is that they may differ systematically in some way from the population. For this reason, samples of convenience should not be used, except in situations where it is not feasible to draw a random sample. When it is necessary to draw a sample of convenience, it is important to think carefully about all the ways in which the sample might differ systematically from the population. If it is reasonable to believe that no important systematic difference exists, then it may be acceptable to treat the sample of convenience as if it were a simple random sample.


But there is reason to know a systematic difference exists. Its not a matter of belief here. We know for a certain fact that this non-random population is showing characteristics markedly different from the norm.

---

Now, I've done as you asked, and in return, I would be very grateful if you would respond to my thought experiment from the other thread. I'm really quite pleased with it. I'll repeat it here, for you convenience:

Your thought experiment is so stupid I'm at a loss for words. It is not remotely comparable because the probability of a coin landing heads or tails is decided at that very moment, and depends on the property of the coin, not the person tossing it! Further, it is astounding that you actually expect an equal number of heads and tails. The equal probability of the coin landing on either face doesn't translate to an equal number of actual events of either type occurring!

This is not a thought experiment. It is a thoughtless experiment. If this is the type of drivel you're going to come up with, please don't expect a response, and please don't whine if you don't get one.
Reply to message
The Bell Curve revisited - 29/10/2012 09:44:09 AM 1427 Views
Re: The Bell Curve revisited - 29/10/2012 10:21:27 AM 818 Views
That's incorrect... - 29/10/2012 10:26:49 AM 1386 Views
Re: That's incorrect... - 29/10/2012 10:36:32 AM 832 Views
RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... - 29/10/2012 02:11:19 PM 717 Views
Response to a few of your poorly researched points... - 29/10/2012 02:31:17 PM 695 Views
Re: RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... - 29/10/2012 02:37:33 PM 708 Views
Exactly... - 29/10/2012 02:39:30 PM 699 Views
there are dozens of reasons for this - 29/10/2012 08:18:18 PM 722 Views
Excellent point. - 29/10/2012 08:24:37 PM 750 Views
Re: there are dozens of reasons for this - 29/10/2012 09:07:35 PM 650 Views
Again I don't argue that genetics play no role - 30/10/2012 01:57:24 AM 622 Views
Re: Again I don't argue that genetics play no role - 30/10/2012 07:07:17 AM 654 Views
I don't think it plays much role in the plot - 30/10/2012 03:17:55 PM 797 Views
Once again just so,we are clear on my stance with Genetics and Strength - 30/10/2012 03:27:11 PM 671 Views
That the 1000 Novices aren't a random sample of the population? - 29/10/2012 08:23:47 PM 608 Views
And why would it be biased towards those with lower strength? - 29/10/2012 09:11:25 PM 600 Views
Absolutely no reason... - 30/10/2012 01:35:35 AM 712 Views
Re: Absolutely no reason... - 30/10/2012 06:43:54 AM 609 Views
Only if it was a random sampling. Which this is not. - 30/10/2012 01:58:34 PM 686 Views
That's exactly the point. I want you to explain why it wasn't random. - 30/10/2012 02:14:59 PM 614 Views
It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! - 30/10/2012 02:43:03 PM 633 Views
Re: It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! - 30/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 635 Views
Go read a stats text will you? - 30/10/2012 02:54:16 PM 628 Views
Done - 31/10/2012 09:34:11 AM 1299 Views
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM 880 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 11:37:16 AM 682 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 07:14:48 PM 574 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 08:33:59 PM 1322 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 08:43:19 PM 839 Views
Still nothing? - 10/11/2012 03:33:15 PM 639 Views
Still doesn't explain the difference - 30/10/2012 07:01:53 PM 577 Views
Re: Still doesn't explain the difference - 10/11/2012 10:21:00 PM 660 Views
Yes that totally makes sense - 30/10/2012 08:07:16 AM 751 Views
Thank you! *NM* - 30/10/2012 10:19:15 AM 345 Views
That's not what happened... - 30/10/2012 02:01:52 PM 668 Views
Re: That's not what happened... - 30/10/2012 02:15:57 PM 627 Views
Who said it would? - 30/10/2012 02:44:17 PM 641 Views
let's not mix up "random" and "representative" - 30/10/2012 05:28:09 PM 689 Views
Doesn't mean RJ applied it to his series - 30/10/2012 08:23:29 AM 706 Views
But of course he did.. - 30/10/2012 02:13:07 PM 733 Views
I hate to get into these things - 29/10/2012 05:45:50 PM 779 Views
I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM 721 Views
In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed - 29/10/2012 08:20:52 PM 762 Views
Overwhelm Lanfear, not match her. *NM* - 29/10/2012 08:26:09 PM 378 Views
Truth is, Moiraine was being overly optimistic... - 29/10/2012 08:39:17 PM 686 Views
You're pathetic... - 30/10/2012 01:20:01 AM 617 Views
The quote isn't specific - 30/10/2012 08:32:36 AM 737 Views
Its highly specific... - 30/10/2012 02:15:38 PM 568 Views
Yet neither of them are at full potential and at least equal a Forsaken - 30/10/2012 03:45:24 PM 1226 Views
Honestly! - 30/10/2012 02:07:37 AM 668 Views
Re: In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed - 29/10/2012 09:10:27 PM 669 Views
Lots of people mean perfectly normal distribution when they say it - 30/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 621 Views
Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? - 30/10/2012 12:04:01 AM 806 Views
Re: Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? - 30/10/2012 09:33:44 AM 738 Views
Are you sure about that? - 30/10/2012 12:03:43 PM 739 Views
Re: Are you sure about that? - 30/10/2012 12:19:34 PM 652 Views
That doesn't seem a coherent narrative to me - 30/10/2012 04:26:25 PM 934 Views
Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola - 30/10/2012 05:16:40 PM 746 Views
Re: Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola - 30/10/2012 05:54:41 PM 638 Views
We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers - 30/10/2012 10:33:55 PM 764 Views
you're confusing 2 things - 30/10/2012 04:27:32 AM 799 Views
+1 *NM* - 30/10/2012 09:17:07 AM 731 Views
Re: you're confusing 2 things - 30/10/2012 09:21:39 AM 724 Views
Not true... - 30/10/2012 11:49:57 AM 749 Views
One thing - 30/10/2012 05:23:17 PM 712 Views
That's the problem. The BC RJ has "built" has a minimum and a maximum value - 30/10/2012 05:48:55 PM 727 Views

Reply to Message