Not likely he has that many... - Edit 1
Before modification by DomA at 08/11/2012 03:08:12 PM
What are they going to attack?
Exactly. Who would they want to attack? Rand? How could Demandred possibly the Sea Folk against their Coramoor?
Only the Seanchan are their enemy, and the worse they can do is destroy their fleets before the much better trained damane and the huge and impressive land armies wipe them out. The first attempt to attack the Seanchan didn't exactly turn out well for the SF...
Odds are the Sea Folk are soon to get the bad news that the Coramoor asks for all the Windfinders to leave behind the ships to join the rest of the Light on land for the LB. He's going to be far more polite about it then when he sent Logain and left them no choice, but essentially it's what Rand wants of them, I think.
I suspect it's part of their prophecies. Something tells me from their actions in the series that they have verses foretelling some sort of return to the Land before they go back to ruling the seas, stronger than ever. That's what they think they're preparing by securing patches of land for trade (those are obviously Travelling grounds... and they won't be best pleased with Elayne's deal with the Kin... they planned to be the ones exclusively offering Travelling-based Trade and Travelling services. Elayne knows that.) I think they don't realize they'll be asked to abandon their ships and islands to fall behind the Coramoor at the LB.
That, not any "LB at sea", would be the real challenge to the SF culture, equivalent to having the Aiel abandon their spears. The Pattern has even seen fit to weave out the Amayar they were bound to protect...
By controlling the Sea Folk, the Shadow can hit all the cities that are located furthest from the Blight - namely on the southern coast.
If Demandred can in one fell swoop capture every city that would have been seen as the "safest havens" far away from the Blight, then the Forces of the Light will be stuck in the middle of nowhere, halfway between the advancing Blight forces in the North, and with no refuge in the South.
With Caemlyn also fallen, the Light is left with basically nothing.
In short, if through the Sea Folk Demandred can instantly strike Mayene, Tear, Illian and Ebou Dar and burn them to the ground, Randland has suddenly become one big refugee camp, with the Light's foundations ripped out before the War has even properly commenced.
It doesn't matter what the Sea Folk Windfinders can or can't do. Before you look at military possibilities, you need to look into HOW Demandred could possibly make the Windfinders turn against the Light that, after the Coramoor launched the LB, they would all of a sudden attack the cities of his allies...
It's simple Shannow. Either Demandred will rely massively on the Shadow's resources (Shadowspawn, Dreadlords and what not, people who know they serve the Shadow)... or he will have secured an army of the Light he could use in a deception, a proxy war.
It's more likely to be both: armies of the Light to start a Light vs. Light war, and armies of the Shadow for other purposes and eventually wipe out the survivors of the proxy war.
This is what Semirhage was working on, having positionned herself near the one who had absolute power over the Seanchan. At any time, and not too soon to risk attracting attention, she could in a blink take full control of Tuon and guide all her actions in the LB.
Just look at what his ally Mesaana has done: place a Red on the Amyrlin Seat, let her antagonize Rand deeply, let her send an expedition to the BT to which Taim, forewarned no doubt, replied by having the Light's faction at the BT bond those sisters. Mesaana used Elaida and key-positionned BA to split the Tower in two factions, which she was on her way to turn into ten factions (the seven Ajahs growing into enemies of each other in the Tower, Rebel BA Sitters having encouraged the division in their Hall into three factions more and more divided). Mesaana has almost succeeded at reducing the AS Rand could use in the LB to a small faction around Cadsuane... Then Semirhage got captured, Moridin tied Mesaana's hands with Egwene and between Egwene's campaign to undermine Elaida and the Seanchan's raid frightening the WT to the core, Mesaana failed spectacularly.
But before that fiasco, Mesaana was another an inch away from being able to take full control of the Amyrlin Seat when the LB start, and turn all the factions of the WT into a proxy war to stop Elaida. None of those factions could work with each other anymore... it bode well.
We know from Sammael one of Demandred's favourite strategies is to get his enemies to fight one another in proxy wars. Not only that keeps them busy from doing something else... like turning to the real enemy, but it means you eventually strike at the victor or the two factions now weakened into a stalemate.
Semirhage was controlling the hugest army on the continent, an army set on conquering all the lands, with irreconciable antagonism toward Rand's channellers.. Windfinders, WO, Aes Sedai, Asha'man.
Mesaana had undermined completely the potential of the WT as Rand's biggest ally. Mesaana had created from the start her own "Latra Posae".
Rand had set the ball rolling to rebuild a male half to the AS guild, but Mazrim Taim not only worked to make it damn hard for the WT/Asha'man to trust one another, but has built himself an army of dreadlords within Rand's group.
Look for Demandred to have accomplished something complementary to what Semirhage and Mesaana were preparing. For the channellers, it's pretty obvious: he's the one who set the ball rolling at the Black Tower. The primary goal was to make it impossible for Rand to unite the BT men and the female channellers. Getting dreadlords was a mere bonus. You'd think if Demandred cared so much to get a lot of Dreadlords, he would have convinced Mesaana not to waste her BA resources... those women could be trained, or used for circles... and he would have set himself up at the BT, not let Taim be the one gaining those serving the Shadow's loyalty...
Relying on channellers isn't Demandred's goal. He doesn't need to build himself an army, he's got billions of Shadowspawn.
He's rather gambled on starting a giant proxy war. It's been a while now we've known the biggest risks hanging over the head of the Light's forces: Rand is convinced he can't face both the Seanchan and the Shadow. Don't you think Demandred has not made the reverse calculation: the Shadow can't face the Seanchan and Rand's half of the Light united? Of course he did. The situation became far worse since at Tar Valon on the eve of TG the situation turned from Mesaana reaching absolute and final success one day to utter and final failure the next day. All Demandred can hope for now with that half of the Light is that he'll get lucky and Egwene and Rand won't manage to reach an agreement and the nations will split between the two leaderships.
If you want to convince me Demandred had any interest in placing himself as the master trader/head of security of the SF, come up with his strategy to turn the Windfinders and SF against the Light, or how he could start a proxy war using them. Waging war on the Westlands is the last thing the Sea Folk would ever do. They don't want to be involved in any way in continental war. They would never seize coastal cities. They want to increase their trade Empire. They have got Travelling, and begun to secure small patches of land, inland. What do you think they're up to? Zaida has seen the advantage of Travelling immediately, the Sea Folk are preparing to offer Gateway-based trade for a price. Part of this is simply commerce, part of this is compensating for the Seanchan's presence in the Sea of Storms which has increased the risks of Sea-based trade and reduced their ports of entry to their markets... Elayne has figured it out, she's secured her own deal with the Kin to free Andor-Cairhien of SF commercial hegemony, and is building Andor as a competitor.
By all evidence, the Shadow has largely ignored the SF. There's no doubt the usual 3-5% of DF among them, ready for sabotage, assassinations and the usual the Chosen use the DF for.
The SF did not matter much, they're natural enemies for the Seanchan, much like the Aiel. If Demandred gets involved with the Sea Folk, it will be at Merrilor, and to offer them a Bargain: Windfinders in case the Seanchan invade Murandy against a very attractive commercial deal of some kind. Murandy controls many "mundane" trade lanes.
Murandy stands between Rand's alliance-to-be and the Seanchan. Previously it stood between the strongest (economically and militarily) nation, ally of the WT, and the Seanchan. It holds the key to the "proxy war". Demandred has vast armies of Shadowspawn, Murandy he's secured to one way or another to force the Seanchan and part of Rand's half to fight one another.
Demandred's reasoning is the following: it's no secret Rand wants to unite the Light as one force in one place. That's the strategy he's been aiming for for a long time now. The Shadowspawn have targeted Rand's two largest allies: Bordermen and Andor. Until recently, Demandred could hope the core of the Bordermen armies were caught in Far Madding - don't you think he had massive Shadowspawn armies moving to strike at them there before Rand came to snatch them away? Striking at the heart of Andor, he forces Elayne to choose between remaining in Rand's alliance or returning to Andor. She's really short of allies right now. The Aiel won't come, Rand won't have the Asha'man go except to deal with the WG and evacuation. Egwene has mobilized the WT armies, but she's made a political mistake: in TOM she had handled full control over military decisions to the Hall, and she'll soon be reminded of that. Roedran has already made a clever move to demonstrate he trusts Elayne of Andor but not the White Tower... Roedran is about to offer a defensive pact/alliance to Elayne: his armies come help her free Andor of Shadowspawn, she promises Andor's might, cannons, the Travekkers etc. will stand at Murandy's side if the Seanchan try to invade Murandy/Andor (both have a common border with Altara). He might try to bargain Zaida into it (and if there are high ranking DF near her, or she's one, he might be able to secure part of the Windfinders).
Rand won't get the rulers and their armies to stay united until he strikes unless he has a plan to avoid another Caemlyn. He had foreseen such an attack, but expected it to occur in the South instead. He must have a plan to counter what he had foreseen: Demandred seeking to scatter his forces to be able to take each out in turn. It sounds like Rand's plan is "strike immediately at SG to stop that strategy of the Shadow, evacuate to Merrilor the people who get striked at in the meantime, and don't worry for the cities, they're just stones". He's probably gonna have to accept his "ideal scenario" of striking immediately after Merrilor is not acceptable to the rulers and Egwene, the WO etc. They'll force him to delay to evacuate their cities, send country folk on their way to stedding etc. The best Rand might hope from Egwene and the break is that they accept to commit all the armies and channellers to his Strike whenever he says he's ready with his plan. That's the flaw in Rand's plan: he seems to believe the Pattern will provide him the answer soon. He's wrong, he believes with Merrilor he finally has gatherd the north-south-east-west together "as one". He has not. The answer will prove elusive until he brings the Seanchan together with the other half "as one" - the Pattern won't let him strike until the full conditions for victory are met. In between Merrilor and the Seanchan joining the Light will be the "New War of Shadow" phase of the LB. The alliance with the Seanchan won't happen early in the book... by chapter 11 Mat just arrived in Ebou Dar and hasn't even met Fortuona. And he's not going to sway her with any "honey, we go north". At the moment the only believable scenario to sway Fortuona is sheer despair and facing annihilation from the Shadow. Even "the Shadow has launched the LB and has already razed Andor's capital" won't sway her. Demandred nearly defeating her forces will. And one way or another we have to account for the plan Egeanin and Egwene are about to hatch, and it seems obvious it would involve spreading among Seanchan the information all Seanchan power rests on a sham, that all sul'dam are damane, all the way up to the Empress herself... It sounds to me Rand will get out of Merrilor a "forget the Seanchan" deal - they were stirred by the Shadow once and I've dealt with that. Mat might bring them to us, or else they'll be irrelevant. Leave them alone unless they attack. But Elayne and Roedran will make a defensive pact, and Egwene's will send agents to undermine the whole system. This could mean the Seanchan will not only be drawn in a war vs. Murandy/Andor, they will during it start to see Fortuona's rule and the damane system begin to crack... That could be how they find themselves unable to continue the war against the Shadow and Mat convinces Fortuona her only remaining salvation is to ally what's left of her forces loyal to her to Rand's in the north. Tuon will leave south the faction of High Blood that means to topple her and slaughter all sul'dam (Demandred's forces will wipe them out) and bring the rest to an extremely uneasy alliance with Rand.
That may be why the Seanchan leave the Westlands 5 to 10 years after the LB to reconquer their continent: the Shadow will have razed their fledging Westlands Empire.. Ebou Dar, Amador, Tanchico: gone.
The problem with what you outline above is that it is overly focused on the roles, petty character conflicts and interactions between the different light side characters.
Using Roedran as subterfuge at just the right moment to drive just the right wedge between Rand and Egwene MIGHT conceivably work - if all other things work together - but planning something like that 10 books in advance is impossible, and entirely dependent on everything working out just right.
In short, it is too reliant on a lot of other uncontrollable and unpredictable events to be a worthwhile strategy for someone with Demandred's ambition to have followed since day 1.
If Sammael conquered half the world with his Illian army, or if Semirhage succeeded in bringing in the unstoppable Seanchan army to the Last Battle or if one of a dozen other Shadow plans worked out, then Demandred having the fairly insignificant Roedran to use as a double agent at the end would have been very unimpressive in comparison.
Nope, the reasoning you provide above makes for great drama for people eagerly following the character conflicts and personal character development of the various lightside protagonists, but it is not an intelligent military strategy for a Shadow general who doesn't care if Rand and Egwene reconcile and become friends again, or if Mat finally accepts responsibility for his life, or if Mat and Tuon make a happy couple etc.
He just cares about winning.
And simply unleashing 1 billion Trollocs, 1000 channelers from the Isle of the Madmen, and whatever other big guns he has at his disposal will do that far better than a long shot throw of the dice seeking to drive a wedge between Rand and Egwene.
As I said, that sounds dramatic from the point of view of people following the soap opera that is the love lives and petty disputes between the childish protagonists in this story, but it makes little sense from a neutral military strategy point of view.
Just hit them with overhelming force where they least expect it, and Bob's your uncle. That's what I'd do if I was Demandred.
Destroy all the southern cities with a force of 500 million Trollocs, and the guys gathered at Merrilor will have their foundations ripped out right from under them.
Well... go reread chapters 1 and 2 (and for that matter, TOM) and tell me what's more likely - not what you think it should be - between AMOL exploiting relationships of the main characters built up to this point during several books, or a massive crushing victory of the Shadow throwing that all out of the window...
The Shadow is most unlikely to have anywhere near 500 millions Trollocs...
I would have thought you'd be the first one to understand whatever Demandred has done, his plans have to have evolved as events unfolded, not be set in stone from the get go. That's one mark of a great general: he takes opportunities, he adapts, he takes calculated risks, he keeps assets up his sleeeve.
You're still looking at this as if Demandred saw Murandy as his territory to deliver to the DO as his on the day of Return, the way Sammael and the others did. That's not likely, he mocked that strategy. It had convinced me he had no "alter ego" at all for years, that he rather prepared for leadership in the War all along (which he still did, IMO) but that's pointless to deny he also has an alter ego since it's confirmed he has one and the criterias are precise and leaves mostly Roedran as credible suspect.
Rather see Murandy as an asset - remember Demandred is a gambler. Don't look at it as if Demandred had a master plan to use Murandy all along and he has stuck to that. Don't go believing Demandred invested the same level of efforts into cultivating this asset through the whole series. Earlier on, he might have placed his agents there, just making sure Roedran wouldn't move. Roedran sure waited very long before "securing his rule" and uniting the armies of his nobles... it began around the time a new possibility to use Murandy cristalized, as Suroth had decided Ebou Dar would be the Seanchan continental spearhead for the Return (we can't be sure Demandred didn't influence that choice, Suroth is a DF), and Semirhage was on her way.
Look at Murandian geopolitics through the whole series (and mind you, we have no idea when Demandred placed that piece on his board.. could be later than you suggest but for the sake of the exercise let's say it was early):
- In the early series, Murandy was an asset right between Rhavin and Sammael, Rhavin and Be'lal, and above Sammael and Be'lal. That's a territory the three might eventually dispute one another, all considering it their own "backyard" or their sanitary cordon. It's an ideal asset to sacrifice to spark a conflict between two of his three rivals.
- Not long after, it got better. Murandy became an asset between two of his rivals and his enemy. And then it became an asset between two of Rand's territories and Sammael's, who would soon be bordered by forces Semirhage controlled. The possibilities to get these foes to fight one another increased. Then Sammael died, and Rand appeared to relinquish control of Andor. This is around that time that we saw Demandred spy on Elayne and rejoice that she seemed extremely angry with Rand and what he had done (in other words, Demandred started to wonder if Elayne couldn't be useful and he would have started factoring her in a possible asset he could use. What's that for foreshadowing, that Demandred scene has yet to lead anywhere?)
By the late game we might really see Demandred's cunning and patience. He no longer had rivals to worry about, it was a given he would be the Shadow's main general and he wouldn't have to share the Shadowspawn with three field generals. His rivals left were now more political. If he's Roedran, or part-time Roedran (it still makes more sense to me he kept the real, compelled, Roedran in play most of the time, replacing him only when it counts...) he's been really patient. He had occasions to strike blows, sacrificing secrecy: he could have blocked the Rebel AS's passage, even manage to trap them (but it seemed using large armies of Shadowspawn was forbidden at the time). He could have tried to destroy the Band, he preferred to let them go, having studied them and their tactics, and likely giving Talmanes a gift with a tracker on it. He was patient, and now he'll be rewarded. He's where no one expects him to be, his asset can now serve to keep Elayne fighting in Andor to the end, or far more likely offer him a new way to spark the whole Seanchan vs. the rest conflict that's been in the card for so long. It might not have been the way he intended to use the Seanchan first, but having lost Semirhage who controlled their leader, Mesaana who was supposed to keep the WT out of play... Demandred came up with an alternative plan, a brilliant one.
One miscalculation Demandred might have made sometime after Sammael's death is to take too much for granted whatever Taim achieved with the BT would be his for the LB, that he would forcibly have a Chosen watch-dog. The DO surprised him by rather rising Taim to Chosen rank. It's obvious Demandred was involved in the early days of the BT (using Taim as proxy, Demandred would not have risked being too involved in something Rand still supervised himself, he's too cautious for this), its organization and ways are way too tight and professional for any other credible explanation, but by WH after Moridin had been openly Nae'blis for a while, after "Dashiva" was sent meddling (and Taim sure seemed surprised to "lose" him to Rand... Perhaps Dashiva on SH's orders was giving Taim weaves Demandred had denied him earlier on), we see Demandred still using DF Asha'man, but keeping Taim out of the loop, insisting in fact he be kept out of the loop. We'll see soon if Demandred will find out he also didn't inherit control of the BA after Mesaaana's demise, that they passed to another Chosen or if Alviarin or another BA wasn't raised like Taim, becoming in truth virtually new pets to Moridin...) None of this means Demandred won't be the one who has devised the strategies for the Dreadlords and be globally in charge of the War, and won't give their leaders orders. It just means Taim (and eventually Alviarin), just raised by the DO and protégés of Moridin who for a while they'll be far more likely than the old Chosen to respect as top authority, will make it damn hard for Demandred to turn against his boss or the other Chosen (in effect "replacing" what his alliance with Semirhage and Mesaana provided). That avenue is closed for Demandred. But the rest is pretty clear: Moridin is the boss, and it's very obvious he considers Demandred is in charge of the War for him, placing Moghedien under his authority, and very likely Taim and others as well. With the death of Semirhage and Mesaana's demise an opportunity arose for Moridin to increase his control by forcing Demandred to work with his own pawns, and apparently the DO went along.
I doubt more and more Demandred will have his own army of Dreadlords. It would have required passing them too much precious knowledge and skills, get the DO to grant each at the Pit a filter for the Taint (I think it was granted only to Taim, not to his faction). It was, in effect, cultivating an army of potential rivals. The better, the more educated this army, the more dangerous it grew to Demandred himself, and far more aggravating, the more skilled and powerful these Dreadlords became, the better educated and trained in war, the less Demandred's skills and OP knowledge were precious and unique in the DO's eyes. That would have served the DO's interests, but not Demandred's own. Mesaana could have trained the whole BA AOL-style. She did not, and probably would never have unless she got direct orders to. Again, it's a matter of seeing to her own interests first, the DO's second. The DO thinks the Third Age channellers are worthless, it's not the Chosen who will disabuse him. I think when Moridin boasted of Taim's achievements, there was a subtext meant for Demandred that Taim has done what he didn't dare do himself. Another subtext (we'll be able to judge better once we know the behind the scene stuff) might be that Demandred has given Taim the bare minimum... like Asmodean did with Rand more or less, and it's Moridin who arranged for Taim's faction to learn more since. I think the Red Veils are also Moridin's, though I expect he might assign them to Demandred for a specific task down the line. Not that Demandred would be to happy, they seem bat-crazy, rabid and barely controllable.
IMO, the Red Veils will be sent against the Aiel, more specifically against the WO. They look different... but clothes can be changed. In proper Aiel clothes, the Red Veils could easily infiltrate the Aiel camps and slaughter with saidin the WO one after another.