Re: I applaud your effort, but to be honest I just can't see it
DomA Send a noteboard - 07/11/2012 08:36:34 PM
Demandred with the SF has several weaknesses.
1. They aren't a relevant military force
2. They have been split up since KoD to delivery supplies where Demandred seems to be in the middle of a consolidation
3. They are not strategically well placed at the moment
4. They are a Naval force with no one to fight
Even if Demandred isn't Roedran, I have a hard time seeing him being among the Sea Folk. I think what you have put forward is for the most part well reasoned and solid, but RJ always had a purpose for where he placed characters and Demandred among the Sea Folk seems to lack that ... Nearly all of the Forsaken (Semirhage, Mesaana, Rahvin, Be'lal, Sammael, Graendal, Aran'gar, Osan'gar) were attached to major Political/Ruling bodies, those that were not (Moghedien, Asmodean, Lanfear, Ishamael)directly involved themselves with Rand and company (or in the case of Moghedien Nynaeve).
Demandred is clearly not working an angle with any of the main cast of characters or he would have been spotted by now (either by the readers or Graendal who keeps tabs on the TR group). That leaves us with limited options to pin him down.
1. Roedran
2. Borderlanders
3. Seanchan
4. Sea Folk
5. Aiel
There don't seem to be any good candidates among the Aiel, Borderlanders or the Seanchan since RJ and BSand ruled out anyone who has appeared "on camera" prior to AMoL ... which IMO also rules out Amel who, did have a cameo, even if a brief one.
Roedran is well placed strategically and with a consolidated Murrandy has a significant power base to open hostilities ... Andor is in a weakened state thanks to the Trolloc's invasion, which Demandred can make worse by provoking a conflict with the Seanchan. Even if you throw out a human army, He is in a prime location as Roedran to direct armies of Trollocs coming out of the Ways all throughout the continent.
Personally I think Demandred having an alter-ego is kind of lame, he doesn't need it at this stage in the books and it would be much more interesting to me if he simply appeared with dozens of Trolloc Hoards coming from various Waygates to smash the southlands.
1. They aren't a relevant military force
2. They have been split up since KoD to delivery supplies where Demandred seems to be in the middle of a consolidation
3. They are not strategically well placed at the moment
4. They are a Naval force with no one to fight
Even if Demandred isn't Roedran, I have a hard time seeing him being among the Sea Folk. I think what you have put forward is for the most part well reasoned and solid, but RJ always had a purpose for where he placed characters and Demandred among the Sea Folk seems to lack that ... Nearly all of the Forsaken (Semirhage, Mesaana, Rahvin, Be'lal, Sammael, Graendal, Aran'gar, Osan'gar) were attached to major Political/Ruling bodies, those that were not (Moghedien, Asmodean, Lanfear, Ishamael)directly involved themselves with Rand and company (or in the case of Moghedien Nynaeve).
Demandred is clearly not working an angle with any of the main cast of characters or he would have been spotted by now (either by the readers or Graendal who keeps tabs on the TR group). That leaves us with limited options to pin him down.
1. Roedran
2. Borderlanders
3. Seanchan
4. Sea Folk
5. Aiel
There don't seem to be any good candidates among the Aiel, Borderlanders or the Seanchan since RJ and BSand ruled out anyone who has appeared "on camera" prior to AMoL ... which IMO also rules out Amel who, did have a cameo, even if a brief one.
Roedran is well placed strategically and with a consolidated Murrandy has a significant power base to open hostilities ... Andor is in a weakened state thanks to the Trolloc's invasion, which Demandred can make worse by provoking a conflict with the Seanchan. Even if you throw out a human army, He is in a prime location as Roedran to direct armies of Trollocs coming out of the Ways all throughout the continent.
Personally I think Demandred having an alter-ego is kind of lame, he doesn't need it at this stage in the books and it would be much more interesting to me if he simply appeared with dozens of Trolloc Hoards coming from various Waygates to smash the southlands.
I would not be surprised he still has the real Roedran under compulsion and well hidden (well away from Lugard, accessible only by Gateway), and he replaces him with a MoM only for important tasks, happy to let the real Roedran have his parties and whatnot. If Demandred is Roedran, he played this right. He's been patient, didn't have some great noble appear to openly gain influence as Sammael, Rahvin and Be'lal all did. He took his time to study Roedran to be able to replace him, and worked to make his "evolution" of personality happen smoothly, as if Roedran was maturing or naturally changing, coming into his own. He's kept Murandy totally out of anything until the AS's presence offered him the opportunity to hire the Band and have a credible, not too suspicious way to unite his nobles around him and "secure his rule". It was convenient, but he had an alternative which was to wait for the Seanchan to mass armies at his borders... He even made sure to let the Band go.
RJ was clever, but the clues are there Roedran has changed, and not all that hidden. It showed up in both the Rebel and Succession storyline, in small touches. The Rebel AS perhaps sent him an embassy as they did with other rulers around, but RJ made sure never to attract our attention on it (they are almost certainly not BA, if they exist. Demandred simply use them to report there's nothing to report, but it looks like there's no Rebel or WT embassy in Lugard, and no advisor). "Roedred" is an old theory, which only gained strength with KOD and Talmanes but that had been around since he hired the Band or so. It just took forever for credible theories as to why Demandred would have any interest in replacing King Roedran and gain himself an army of Murandians, of all things, to emerge. Mine's not the only one (probably not the first either), but most of those I find credible center on Demandred using the Murandians as proxies, not at all as "his army".
Demandred can't have any army turn to the Shadow. If he doesn't have an army of DF like Taim has, then the army of the Light he controls has to be fooled in fighting armies of the Light, and the most harmful such conflict Demandred could engineer is one with the Seanchan, which happen to fit with the geography, his recent dealing with Elayne and it used to be complementary plans of Mesaana and Semirhage. (the other believable option is some plans for Andor, but I found those weaker).
It's not that the theory of the OP is bad, as far as tracking the identity goes, but it hits the same wall the Roedran theories did a few years ago: we can't see a plan in there, except impossible stuff like ordering the SF to attack Tear, Illian and Bandar Eban. It doesn't mean it doesn't exist (though I agree with you Amel himself is ruled out by his cameo), but until someone comes up with a solid and credible way in which Demandred could use the Sea Folk (as it needs to be as proxies, there's no way to make them fight the Light except the Seanchan and they're no match for them on their own, nor located for it) Demandred with the SF is not credible.
This message last edited by DomA on 07/11/2012 at 08:39:46 PM
[Mik's Warp] - Demandred is.....*click to find out*
05/11/2012 01:06:42 PM
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There are only 2 months left before AMOL comes out (or less)...
05/11/2012 02:10:07 PM
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Re: There are only 2 months left before AMOL comes out (or less)...
06/11/2012 12:40:54 PM
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I say Roederan is a better choice simply because of where he is located
06/11/2012 11:01:28 PM
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Re: I say Roederan is a better choice simply because of where he is located
07/11/2012 09:42:00 AM
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I applaud your effort, but to be honest I just can't see it
07/11/2012 04:48:17 PM
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Re: I applaud your effort, but to be honest I just can't see it
07/11/2012 08:36:34 PM
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Plausible, albeit antilclimactic *NM*
05/11/2012 06:32:38 PM
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Unless Mat is Demandred, at this point it will be anticlimactic. *NM*
06/11/2012 04:02:38 AM
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You've tried too hard...
05/11/2012 07:53:41 PM
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Will be so disappointed if the Shadow's greatest (non-crazy) leader is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky
05/11/2012 08:57:59 PM
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I doubt Mat will kill him personally but
05/11/2012 09:24:48 PM
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I don't know
06/11/2012 02:01:41 AM
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My prediction of how it plays out...
06/11/2012 07:12:15 AM
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I don't think that's likely
06/11/2012 06:04:55 PM
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Re: I don't think that's likely
06/11/2012 11:21:21 PM
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Re: I don't think that's likely
07/11/2012 08:14:28 PM
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Re: I don't think that's likely
07/11/2012 09:05:07 PM
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Re: I don't think that's likely
08/11/2012 05:52:16 PM
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It sounds like we're at the same stage of vision of the AOL
08/11/2012 07:48:17 PM
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Statistics refute some of that...
09/11/2012 07:35:59 AM
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We're not talking about the same things...
09/11/2012 11:31:12 PM
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The real question is how much of that was caused by the Bore and the Collapse
09/11/2012 11:50:20 PM
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It doesn't mean no one in this Age can be at Talented or Intelligent.
09/11/2012 11:43:26 PM
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Re: It doesn't mean no one in this Age can be at Talented or Intelligent.
10/11/2012 07:34:34 AM
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You're putting the Evil on a pedestal.
06/11/2012 03:12:38 AM
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... is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky
06/11/2012 08:45:02 PM
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Mat is essentially the man (men) who wrote the books Demandred studied
06/11/2012 10:42:40 PM
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I didn't try hard at all; Demandred found me...
06/11/2012 03:31:41 PM
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My biggest contention with Demandred being with the Sea Folk
06/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
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Re: My biggest contention with Demandred being with the Sea Folk
07/11/2012 12:07:02 AM
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Well, it instantly gives the Shadow access to attacking every coastal city...
07/11/2012 10:32:23 AM
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If he married Nynaeve and Moiraine he'd have his wives at Rand's side in the Pit too....
07/11/2012 03:28:38 PM
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I find that approach unnecessarily convoluted. Just hit them with 1 billion Trollocs and crush them.
08/11/2012 07:00:36 AM
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May I ask some practical questions?
08/11/2012 05:28:41 PM
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Re: May I ask some practical questions?
08/11/2012 10:35:38 PM
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Re: May I ask some practical questions?
10/11/2012 12:09:15 AM
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Re: May I ask some practical questions?
10/11/2012 03:11:59 AM
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LOL ... Seems more than a little far fetched *NM*
10/11/2012 06:17:34 AM
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Well, they hadn't planned on them being Traveling grounds as they didn't know about
09/11/2012 02:57:16 PM
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Re: Well, they hadn't planned on them being Traveling grounds as they didn't know about
09/11/2012 09:03:14 PM
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I know. I'm saying they were not doing this with Traveling in mind.
09/11/2012 11:57:34 PM
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Re: I know. I'm saying they were not doing this with Traveling in mind.
10/11/2012 10:08:04 PM
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I see what you are getting at ... And I see how Zaida used it to her advantage
11/11/2012 07:45:19 AM
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Re: I see what you are getting at ... And I see how Zaida used it to her advantage
12/11/2012 02:57:08 PM
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Nesta sent 2 ambassadors to the Coramoor. Both looking for the same thing
12/11/2012 04:11:50 PM
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Re: Nesta sent 2 ambassadors to the Coramoor. Both looking for the same thing
12/11/2012 06:01:33 PM
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Well there is also the fact that Harine pretty much tells us she MUST make a Bargain
12/11/2012 06:51:24 PM
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Re: Well there is also the fact that Harine pretty much tells us she MUST make a Bargain
12/11/2012 09:30:57 PM
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Not to belabor the point
12/11/2012 10:56:39 PM
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Re: Not to belabor the point
13/11/2012 12:46:21 AM
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I think you are way off base on the economics
13/11/2012 01:24:35 AM
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