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Re: I applaud your effort, but to be honest I just can't see it DomA Send a noteboard - 07/11/2012 08:36:34 PM
Demandred with the SF has several weaknesses.

1. They aren't a relevant military force
2. They have been split up since KoD to delivery supplies where Demandred seems to be in the middle of a consolidation
3. They are not strategically well placed at the moment
4. They are a Naval force with no one to fight

Even if Demandred isn't Roedran, I have a hard time seeing him being among the Sea Folk. I think what you have put forward is for the most part well reasoned and solid, but RJ always had a purpose for where he placed characters and Demandred among the Sea Folk seems to lack that ... Nearly all of the Forsaken (Semirhage, Mesaana, Rahvin, Be'lal, Sammael, Graendal, Aran'gar, Osan'gar) were attached to major Political/Ruling bodies, those that were not (Moghedien, Asmodean, Lanfear, Ishamael)directly involved themselves with Rand and company (or in the case of Moghedien Nynaeve).

Demandred is clearly not working an angle with any of the main cast of characters or he would have been spotted by now (either by the readers or Graendal who keeps tabs on the TR group). That leaves us with limited options to pin him down.

1. Roedran
2. Borderlanders
3. Seanchan
4. Sea Folk
5. Aiel

There don't seem to be any good candidates among the Aiel, Borderlanders or the Seanchan since RJ and BSand ruled out anyone who has appeared "on camera" prior to AMoL ... which IMO also rules out Amel who, did have a cameo, even if a brief one.

Roedran is well placed strategically and with a consolidated Murrandy has a significant power base to open hostilities ... Andor is in a weakened state thanks to the Trolloc's invasion, which Demandred can make worse by provoking a conflict with the Seanchan. Even if you throw out a human army, He is in a prime location as Roedran to direct armies of Trollocs coming out of the Ways all throughout the continent.

Personally I think Demandred having an alter-ego is kind of lame, he doesn't need it at this stage in the books and it would be much more interesting to me if he simply appeared with dozens of Trolloc Hoards coming from various Waygates to smash the southlands.


I would not be surprised he still has the real Roedran under compulsion and well hidden (well away from Lugard, accessible only by Gateway), and he replaces him with a MoM only for important tasks, happy to let the real Roedran have his parties and whatnot. If Demandred is Roedran, he played this right. He's been patient, didn't have some great noble appear to openly gain influence as Sammael, Rahvin and Be'lal all did. He took his time to study Roedran to be able to replace him, and worked to make his "evolution" of personality happen smoothly, as if Roedran was maturing or naturally changing, coming into his own. He's kept Murandy totally out of anything until the AS's presence offered him the opportunity to hire the Band and have a credible, not too suspicious way to unite his nobles around him and "secure his rule". It was convenient, but he had an alternative which was to wait for the Seanchan to mass armies at his borders... He even made sure to let the Band go.

RJ was clever, but the clues are there Roedran has changed, and not all that hidden. It showed up in both the Rebel and Succession storyline, in small touches. The Rebel AS perhaps sent him an embassy as they did with other rulers around, but RJ made sure never to attract our attention on it (they are almost certainly not BA, if they exist. Demandred simply use them to report there's nothing to report, but it looks like there's no Rebel or WT embassy in Lugard, and no advisor). "Roedred" is an old theory, which only gained strength with KOD and Talmanes but that had been around since he hired the Band or so. It just took forever for credible theories as to why Demandred would have any interest in replacing King Roedran and gain himself an army of Murandians, of all things, to emerge. Mine's not the only one (probably not the first either), but most of those I find credible center on Demandred using the Murandians as proxies, not at all as "his army".

Demandred can't have any army turn to the Shadow. If he doesn't have an army of DF like Taim has, then the army of the Light he controls has to be fooled in fighting armies of the Light, and the most harmful such conflict Demandred could engineer is one with the Seanchan, which happen to fit with the geography, his recent dealing with Elayne and it used to be complementary plans of Mesaana and Semirhage. (the other believable option is some plans for Andor, but I found those weaker).

It's not that the theory of the OP is bad, as far as tracking the identity goes, but it hits the same wall the Roedran theories did a few years ago: we can't see a plan in there, except impossible stuff like ordering the SF to attack Tear, Illian and Bandar Eban. It doesn't mean it doesn't exist (though I agree with you Amel himself is ruled out by his cameo), but until someone comes up with a solid and credible way in which Demandred could use the Sea Folk (as it needs to be as proxies, there's no way to make them fight the Light except the Seanchan and they're no match for them on their own, nor located for it) Demandred with the SF is not credible.












This message last edited by DomA on 07/11/2012 at 08:39:46 PM
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[Mik's Warp] - Demandred is.....*click to find out* - 05/11/2012 01:06:42 PM 2734 Views
There are only 2 months left before AMOL comes out (or less)... - 05/11/2012 02:10:07 PM 1292 Views
Nah.. forget that - 05/11/2012 08:29:53 PM 1137 Views
Re: Nah.. forget that - 05/11/2012 10:07:46 PM 993 Views
Re: There are only 2 months left before AMOL comes out (or less)... - 06/11/2012 12:40:54 PM 1183 Views
I'm not saying it's not a well-reasoned theory; it is. - 06/11/2012 06:02:36 PM 1185 Views
I say Roederan is a better choice simply because of where he is located - 06/11/2012 11:01:28 PM 1091 Views
Re: I say Roederan is a better choice simply because of where he is located - 07/11/2012 09:42:00 AM 1344 Views
I applaud your effort, but to be honest I just can't see it - 07/11/2012 04:48:17 PM 964 Views
Re: I applaud your effort, but to be honest I just can't see it - 07/11/2012 08:36:34 PM 1223 Views
There has been a lot of waste in WOT..... - 06/11/2012 06:26:56 PM 909 Views
LIKE! *NM* - 09/12/2012 02:37:49 PM 1029 Views
Whoops *NM* - 06/11/2012 07:27:06 PM 552 Views
Plausible, albeit antilclimactic *NM* - 05/11/2012 06:32:38 PM 606 Views
Unless Mat is Demandred, at this point it will be anticlimactic. *NM* - 06/11/2012 04:02:38 AM 565 Views
That would be EPIC *NM* - 06/11/2012 07:53:30 PM 571 Views
That would be EPIC *NM* - 06/11/2012 07:53:31 PM 565 Views
You've tried too hard... - 05/11/2012 07:53:41 PM 2802 Views
Will be so disappointed if the Shadow's greatest (non-crazy) leader is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky - 05/11/2012 08:57:59 PM 1132 Views
I doubt Mat will kill him personally but - 05/11/2012 09:24:48 PM 884 Views
I don't know - 06/11/2012 02:01:41 AM 896 Views
My prediction of how it plays out... - 06/11/2012 07:12:15 AM 994 Views
I don't think that's likely - 06/11/2012 06:04:55 PM 956 Views
LOL ... it will be a saying in the next Age - 06/11/2012 10:36:04 PM 893 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely - 06/11/2012 11:21:21 PM 894 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely - 07/11/2012 08:14:28 PM 1017 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely - 07/11/2012 09:05:07 PM 1116 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely - 08/11/2012 05:52:16 PM 937 Views
It sounds like we're at the same stage of vision of the AOL - 08/11/2012 07:48:17 PM 891 Views
Statistics refute some of that... - 09/11/2012 07:35:59 AM 903 Views
We're not talking about the same things... - 09/11/2012 11:31:12 PM 887 Views
It doesn't mean no one in this Age can be at Talented or Intelligent. - 09/11/2012 11:43:26 PM 1082 Views
Re: It doesn't mean no one in this Age can be at Talented or Intelligent. - 10/11/2012 07:34:34 AM 1001 Views
You seriously believe that? - 10/11/2012 04:17:09 PM 927 Views
Mat has grown quiet a bit since those days - 06/11/2012 01:55:48 AM 1049 Views
You're putting the Evil on a pedestal. - 06/11/2012 03:12:38 AM 817 Views
No, just desperately trying to raise the stakes a bit... - 06/11/2012 07:00:59 AM 961 Views
That's essentially what I was saying - 06/11/2012 03:35:45 PM 1080 Views
hmmm - 06/11/2012 10:27:00 AM 1216 Views
... is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky - 06/11/2012 08:45:02 PM 1045 Views
Mat is essentially the man (men) who wrote the books Demandred studied - 06/11/2012 10:42:40 PM 874 Views
Exactly... - 06/11/2012 11:45:36 PM 1041 Views
... is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky - 06/11/2012 08:45:29 PM 1085 Views
I didn't try hard at all; Demandred found me... - 06/11/2012 03:31:41 PM 1053 Views
My biggest contention with Demandred being with the Sea Folk - 06/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 1024 Views
Re: My biggest contention with Demandred being with the Sea Folk - 07/11/2012 12:07:02 AM 1073 Views
Well, it instantly gives the Shadow access to attacking every coastal city... - 07/11/2012 10:32:23 AM 945 Views
Exactly! - 07/11/2012 10:54:14 AM 1496 Views
If he married Nynaeve and Moiraine he'd have his wives at Rand's side in the Pit too.... - 07/11/2012 03:28:38 PM 915 Views
I find that approach unnecessarily convoluted. Just hit them with 1 billion Trollocs and crush them. - 08/11/2012 07:00:36 AM 904 Views
Not likely he has that many... - 08/11/2012 03:00:32 PM 839 Views
May I ask some practical questions? - 08/11/2012 05:28:41 PM 841 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions? - 08/11/2012 10:35:38 PM 973 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions? - 10/11/2012 12:09:15 AM 909 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions? - 10/11/2012 03:11:59 AM 914 Views
LOL ... Seems more than a little far fetched *NM* - 10/11/2012 06:17:34 AM 511 Views
Well you asked for an explanation - 13/11/2012 10:23:41 PM 829 Views
fair enough *NM* - 14/11/2012 01:31:52 AM 483 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions? - 10/11/2012 07:15:58 PM 957 Views
Exactly! - 11/11/2012 07:38:46 AM 957 Views
Good practical questions... - 09/11/2012 07:24:14 AM 949 Views
He doesn't need the SF for that - 09/11/2012 03:00:34 PM 725 Views
Well, they hadn't planned on them being Traveling grounds as they didn't know about - 09/11/2012 02:57:16 PM 787 Views
Re: Well, they hadn't planned on them being Traveling grounds as they didn't know about - 09/11/2012 09:03:14 PM 907 Views
I know. I'm saying they were not doing this with Traveling in mind. - 09/11/2012 11:57:34 PM 881 Views
Re: I know. I'm saying they were not doing this with Traveling in mind. - 10/11/2012 10:08:04 PM 2419 Views
I see what you are getting at ... And I see how Zaida used it to her advantage - 11/11/2012 07:45:19 AM 942 Views
Re: I see what you are getting at ... And I see how Zaida used it to her advantage - 12/11/2012 02:57:08 PM 955 Views
Nesta sent 2 ambassadors to the Coramoor. Both looking for the same thing - 12/11/2012 04:11:50 PM 990 Views
Re: Nesta sent 2 ambassadors to the Coramoor. Both looking for the same thing - 12/11/2012 06:01:33 PM 1074 Views
Well there is also the fact that Harine pretty much tells us she MUST make a Bargain - 12/11/2012 06:51:24 PM 1105 Views
Re: Well there is also the fact that Harine pretty much tells us she MUST make a Bargain - 12/11/2012 09:30:57 PM 908 Views
Not to belabor the point - 12/11/2012 10:56:39 PM 857 Views
Re: Not to belabor the point - 13/11/2012 12:46:21 AM 818 Views
I think you are way off base on the economics - 13/11/2012 01:24:35 AM 784 Views
Re: I think you are way off base on the economics - 13/11/2012 03:48:40 PM 901 Views
no reason to *NM* - 14/11/2012 01:35:55 AM 500 Views
I don't see the problem... - 07/11/2012 10:52:49 AM 1631 Views
This is preposterous - 07/11/2012 04:15:11 PM 1329 Views
Who? - 06/11/2012 07:29:46 PM 859 Views
Paah, he's clearly on the Isle of Madmen to the south. - 10/11/2012 03:28:26 AM 1284 Views

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