We have two sets of paramaters set by Jordan.
First by the mid to late series he answered a question about it that we could figure out who both Demandred and Mesaana were hidden as.
We know from the few clues about Danelle that he was telling the truth. We could get lucky, spot the clues and figure it out. It didn't rest on solid facts, but we could still suspect it was Danelle based on flimsy clues and turn out to be right.
The same must be true for Demandred.
That rules out Amel, who was never mentionned before KOD. And he rose to prominence following a series of events Demandred could not possibly control. A lot of your "suspicious" stuff about Zaida isn't suspicious at all, you just overlook politics. Had Mat seen Harine, she would have looked as acting just as weirdly as he found Zaida to be acting strangely. It's not any deep mystery: women of Zaida and Harine's rank are almost never seen. They're the next thing to the Mistress of Ships. It was unique that they lead embassies on the land, and the reason for this exceptional event was plain and simple, they were the embassies to the Coramoor...
You overlooked the political contest between Zaida and Harine. Both had to be the one succeeding at making a Bargain with Rand. Harine won, but her Bargain was very onerous and Zaida got the advantage of learning earlier about the death of the MoS and to play all this against Harine.
It's as simple as that. The Sea Folk have no real army. They never needed one, their islands are almost unreachable except for their own ships, and if attacked at sea or at home, they can fall back on Windfinders and leave no survivors to tell the tale... When organized military faced them, they were fairly easily defeated. They lost an island to the Seanchan, and at Ebou Dar they did damage by surprise but the damane got the upper hand pretty fast. The husband of a captain (by whatever name) is in charge of Trade and protecting the goods and the traders. What you call "an army" is more akin to merchant's guards. He has not authority whatsoever over the Windfinders, who are strictly under the female hierarchy.
It's not enough for Demandred to "have an army". He needs a way to either turn it against the Light (fat chance of that with the likes of SF, Aiel etc.) or use them in a proxy war. Aside from the Seanchan, the Sea Folk have no enemies, and they're proven not to be any match to the damane, so what would be the point?
The other point is that Amel, if not by name, has showed up on screen in that scene where Mat saw him. Jordan said we never saw Demandred in disguise on screen (that was valid up to KOD). Brandon confirmed we haven't seen him in TGS/TOM either.
There are few, very few characters fitting the criteria, and the only one who makes sense among them is Roedran. I've fought against the idea for years but have given up. The clues are slightly better than those for Danelle, but they are there. Toward ACOS (or POD?), reports that Roedran had changed and was becoming clever showed up. He's developped an interest for old war treatises (that's Demandred learning all he can about third age tactics...).
All that was left to make sense of this is to figure out Demandred doesn't intend to use the Murandian to get himself an army. The Murandians won't fight for the Shadow. He intends to use the Murandians to start a conflict detrimental to the Light, and draw into it as much of Rand's forces as he can. Demandred will provoke a War between Murandy/Andor and the Seanchan. He will offer his armies to Elayne to deal with the Shadowspawn and make an alliance for them to act together should the Seanchan attack either of them. Then he will bait the Seanchan into attacking him (there are dozens of ways he could achieve that), and draw Elayne, her cannons, the Band, her armies into that conflict. This is the biggest single force of the Light distracted at the wrong time. Once he's dealt with the Seanchan or during the war, Demandred will seize Elayne, unveil himself and draw Rand's forces into the maelstrom, the Shadow's armies ready to strike.
The flaw in Demandred's plans is the Prince of Ravens, he's not expecting that Mat through events will rise to leadership of the Seanchan armies. The Light will survive the "Great Battle", and out of it the Seanchan and the other half of the Light will emerge as allies against the Shadow.
Demandred already has armies: millions if not billions of Shadowspawn, with plenty of Myrrdraal ready to force them to follow all his orders. He no doubts has plenty of those hidden in the South, ready to strike at the Seanchan in Ebou Dar and at all their other military posts (Illian, Amador etc. as soon as they commit enough troops to his "Murandian War".
If he has Dreadlords serving him, they won't be Taim's, The BT is a decoy within a decoy, an army hidden within Rand's army but not well hidden enough... Demandred's forces will rather consist of a selection of Taim's recruits who have not joined the BT but have gone elsewhere after testing positive, and who now have joined fairly recently the Legion of the Dragon. A force of well-trained male channelers ready to strike by surprise at his orders, and right among Rand's forces, and lead by one of his best and most valuable general (one who has "something dark" in his future...). We'll see if the BA will join his channellers after their betrayal, or if they have been merged with Taim's forces (the latter, IMO).
First by the mid to late series he answered a question about it that we could figure out who both Demandred and Mesaana were hidden as.
We know from the few clues about Danelle that he was telling the truth. We could get lucky, spot the clues and figure it out. It didn't rest on solid facts, but we could still suspect it was Danelle based on flimsy clues and turn out to be right.
The same must be true for Demandred.
That rules out Amel, who was never mentionned before KOD. And he rose to prominence following a series of events Demandred could not possibly control. A lot of your "suspicious" stuff about Zaida isn't suspicious at all, you just overlook politics. Had Mat seen Harine, she would have looked as acting just as weirdly as he found Zaida to be acting strangely. It's not any deep mystery: women of Zaida and Harine's rank are almost never seen. They're the next thing to the Mistress of Ships. It was unique that they lead embassies on the land, and the reason for this exceptional event was plain and simple, they were the embassies to the Coramoor...
You overlooked the political contest between Zaida and Harine. Both had to be the one succeeding at making a Bargain with Rand. Harine won, but her Bargain was very onerous and Zaida got the advantage of learning earlier about the death of the MoS and to play all this against Harine.
It's as simple as that. The Sea Folk have no real army. They never needed one, their islands are almost unreachable except for their own ships, and if attacked at sea or at home, they can fall back on Windfinders and leave no survivors to tell the tale... When organized military faced them, they were fairly easily defeated. They lost an island to the Seanchan, and at Ebou Dar they did damage by surprise but the damane got the upper hand pretty fast. The husband of a captain (by whatever name) is in charge of Trade and protecting the goods and the traders. What you call "an army" is more akin to merchant's guards. He has not authority whatsoever over the Windfinders, who are strictly under the female hierarchy.
It's not enough for Demandred to "have an army". He needs a way to either turn it against the Light (fat chance of that with the likes of SF, Aiel etc.) or use them in a proxy war. Aside from the Seanchan, the Sea Folk have no enemies, and they're proven not to be any match to the damane, so what would be the point?
The other point is that Amel, if not by name, has showed up on screen in that scene where Mat saw him. Jordan said we never saw Demandred in disguise on screen (that was valid up to KOD). Brandon confirmed we haven't seen him in TGS/TOM either.
There are few, very few characters fitting the criteria, and the only one who makes sense among them is Roedran. I've fought against the idea for years but have given up. The clues are slightly better than those for Danelle, but they are there. Toward ACOS (or POD?), reports that Roedran had changed and was becoming clever showed up. He's developped an interest for old war treatises (that's Demandred learning all he can about third age tactics...).
All that was left to make sense of this is to figure out Demandred doesn't intend to use the Murandian to get himself an army. The Murandians won't fight for the Shadow. He intends to use the Murandians to start a conflict detrimental to the Light, and draw into it as much of Rand's forces as he can. Demandred will provoke a War between Murandy/Andor and the Seanchan. He will offer his armies to Elayne to deal with the Shadowspawn and make an alliance for them to act together should the Seanchan attack either of them. Then he will bait the Seanchan into attacking him (there are dozens of ways he could achieve that), and draw Elayne, her cannons, the Band, her armies into that conflict. This is the biggest single force of the Light distracted at the wrong time. Once he's dealt with the Seanchan or during the war, Demandred will seize Elayne, unveil himself and draw Rand's forces into the maelstrom, the Shadow's armies ready to strike.
The flaw in Demandred's plans is the Prince of Ravens, he's not expecting that Mat through events will rise to leadership of the Seanchan armies. The Light will survive the "Great Battle", and out of it the Seanchan and the other half of the Light will emerge as allies against the Shadow.
Demandred already has armies: millions if not billions of Shadowspawn, with plenty of Myrrdraal ready to force them to follow all his orders. He no doubts has plenty of those hidden in the South, ready to strike at the Seanchan in Ebou Dar and at all their other military posts (Illian, Amador etc. as soon as they commit enough troops to his "Murandian War".
If he has Dreadlords serving him, they won't be Taim's, The BT is a decoy within a decoy, an army hidden within Rand's army but not well hidden enough... Demandred's forces will rather consist of a selection of Taim's recruits who have not joined the BT but have gone elsewhere after testing positive, and who now have joined fairly recently the Legion of the Dragon. A force of well-trained male channelers ready to strike by surprise at his orders, and right among Rand's forces, and lead by one of his best and most valuable general (one who has "something dark" in his future...). We'll see if the BA will join his channellers after their betrayal, or if they have been merged with Taim's forces (the latter, IMO).
This message last edited by DomA on 05/11/2012 at 08:11:01 PM
[Mik's Warp] - Demandred is.....*click to find out*
05/11/2012 01:06:42 PM
- 2735 Views
There are only 2 months left before AMOL comes out (or less)...
05/11/2012 02:10:07 PM
- 1292 Views
Re: There are only 2 months left before AMOL comes out (or less)...
06/11/2012 12:40:54 PM
- 1183 Views
I say Roederan is a better choice simply because of where he is located
06/11/2012 11:01:28 PM
- 1091 Views
Re: I say Roederan is a better choice simply because of where he is located
07/11/2012 09:42:00 AM
- 1344 Views
Plausible, albeit antilclimactic *NM*
05/11/2012 06:32:38 PM
- 606 Views
Unless Mat is Demandred, at this point it will be anticlimactic. *NM*
06/11/2012 04:02:38 AM
- 565 Views
You've tried too hard...
05/11/2012 07:53:41 PM
- 2803 Views
Will be so disappointed if the Shadow's greatest (non-crazy) leader is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky
05/11/2012 08:57:59 PM
- 1132 Views
I doubt Mat will kill him personally but
05/11/2012 09:24:48 PM
- 884 Views
I don't know
06/11/2012 02:01:41 AM
- 896 Views
My prediction of how it plays out...
06/11/2012 07:12:15 AM
- 994 Views
I don't think that's likely
06/11/2012 06:04:55 PM
- 956 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely
06/11/2012 11:21:21 PM
- 894 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely
07/11/2012 08:14:28 PM
- 1017 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely
07/11/2012 09:05:07 PM
- 1116 Views
Re: I don't think that's likely
08/11/2012 05:52:16 PM
- 937 Views
It sounds like we're at the same stage of vision of the AOL
08/11/2012 07:48:17 PM
- 891 Views
Statistics refute some of that...
09/11/2012 07:35:59 AM
- 903 Views
We're not talking about the same things...
09/11/2012 11:31:12 PM
- 887 Views
The real question is how much of that was caused by the Bore and the Collapse
09/11/2012 11:50:20 PM
- 931 Views
It doesn't mean no one in this Age can be at Talented or Intelligent.
09/11/2012 11:43:26 PM
- 1082 Views
Re: It doesn't mean no one in this Age can be at Talented or Intelligent.
10/11/2012 07:34:34 AM
- 1001 Views
You're putting the Evil on a pedestal.
06/11/2012 03:12:38 AM
- 817 Views
... is defeated by Mr Happy Go Lucky
06/11/2012 08:45:02 PM
- 1045 Views
Mat is essentially the man (men) who wrote the books Demandred studied
06/11/2012 10:42:40 PM
- 874 Views
I didn't try hard at all; Demandred found me...
06/11/2012 03:31:41 PM
- 1053 Views
My biggest contention with Demandred being with the Sea Folk
06/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
- 1024 Views
Re: My biggest contention with Demandred being with the Sea Folk
07/11/2012 12:07:02 AM
- 1073 Views
Well, it instantly gives the Shadow access to attacking every coastal city...
07/11/2012 10:32:23 AM
- 945 Views
If he married Nynaeve and Moiraine he'd have his wives at Rand's side in the Pit too....
07/11/2012 03:28:38 PM
- 915 Views
I find that approach unnecessarily convoluted. Just hit them with 1 billion Trollocs and crush them.
08/11/2012 07:00:36 AM
- 904 Views
May I ask some practical questions?
08/11/2012 05:28:41 PM
- 841 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions?
08/11/2012 10:35:38 PM
- 973 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions?
10/11/2012 12:09:15 AM
- 909 Views
Re: May I ask some practical questions?
10/11/2012 03:11:59 AM
- 914 Views
LOL ... Seems more than a little far fetched *NM*
10/11/2012 06:17:34 AM
- 512 Views
Well, they hadn't planned on them being Traveling grounds as they didn't know about
09/11/2012 02:57:16 PM
- 787 Views
Re: Well, they hadn't planned on them being Traveling grounds as they didn't know about
09/11/2012 09:03:14 PM
- 908 Views
I know. I'm saying they were not doing this with Traveling in mind.
09/11/2012 11:57:34 PM
- 881 Views
Re: I know. I'm saying they were not doing this with Traveling in mind.
10/11/2012 10:08:04 PM
- 2419 Views
I see what you are getting at ... And I see how Zaida used it to her advantage
11/11/2012 07:45:19 AM
- 942 Views
Re: I see what you are getting at ... And I see how Zaida used it to her advantage
12/11/2012 02:57:08 PM
- 955 Views
Nesta sent 2 ambassadors to the Coramoor. Both looking for the same thing
12/11/2012 04:11:50 PM
- 990 Views
Re: Nesta sent 2 ambassadors to the Coramoor. Both looking for the same thing
12/11/2012 06:01:33 PM
- 1074 Views
Well there is also the fact that Harine pretty much tells us she MUST make a Bargain
12/11/2012 06:51:24 PM
- 1106 Views
Re: Well there is also the fact that Harine pretty much tells us she MUST make a Bargain
12/11/2012 09:30:57 PM
- 908 Views
Not to belabor the point
12/11/2012 10:56:39 PM
- 857 Views
Re: Not to belabor the point
13/11/2012 12:46:21 AM
- 818 Views
I think you are way off base on the economics
13/11/2012 01:24:35 AM
- 784 Views