To produce a deviation as large as the one we are discussing here, a systematic bias is clearly needed.
No it isn't. You cannot expect a non-deviant result from a self-selected sample. Stop trying to insist otherwise. This is mathematical fact, not a matter of opinion.
So, I went and had a look at some statistics texts, and here are a few juicy quotes (emphasis mine):
---
Self-selection bias is the problem that very often results when survey respondents are allowed to decide entirely for themselves whether or not they want to participate in a survey. To the extent that respondents' propensity for participating in the study is correlated with the substantive topic the researchers are trying to study, there will be self-selection bias in the resulting data.
---
A voluntary response sample consists of people who choose themselves by responding to a general appeal. Voluntary response samples are biased because people with strong opinions, especially negative opinions, are most likely to respond.
---
A sample of convenience is a sample that is not drawn by a well-defined random method. The big problem with samples of convenience is that they may differ systematically in some way from the population. For this reason, samples of convenience should not be used, except in situations where it is not feasible to draw a random sample. When it is necessary to draw a sample of convenience, it is important to think carefully about all the ways in which the sample might differ systematically from the population. If it is reasonable to believe that no important systematic difference exists, then it may be acceptable to treat the sample of convenience as if it were a simple random sample.
---
Now, I've done as you asked, and in return, I would be very grateful if you would respond to my thought experiment from the other thread. I'm really quite pleased with it. I'll repeat it here, for you convenience:
So, thought experiment time:
You have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You then ask anyone who feels like it to come forward, and flip their coin. I would expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you? Remember, this is one of those scary self-selected samples.
Next, you have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You tell them all to flip their coin, and use a magic marker to put a mark on the face that lands up, without looking at the result. You then ask whoever feels like it to come forward, and show you their coin. I would still expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you?
Edit: Spelling.
Fram kamerater!
This message last edited by Tor on 31/10/2012 at 09:34:49 AM
The Bell Curve revisited
29/10/2012 09:44:09 AM
- 1427 Views
Re: The Bell Curve revisited
29/10/2012 10:21:27 AM
- 818 Views
That's incorrect...
29/10/2012 10:26:49 AM
- 1386 Views
Re: That's incorrect...
29/10/2012 10:36:32 AM
- 832 Views
Re: That's incorrect...
29/10/2012 10:40:27 AM
- 681 Views
Re: That's incorrect...
29/10/2012 10:42:57 AM
- 677 Views
Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well...
29/10/2012 10:45:07 AM
- 766 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well...
29/10/2012 10:49:49 AM
- 660 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well...
29/10/2012 10:56:37 AM
- 745 Views
It's only as skewed as it seems when you make the assumption that the Forsaken
31/10/2012 04:34:11 AM
- 956 Views
RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right...
29/10/2012 02:11:19 PM
- 717 Views
Re: RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right...
29/10/2012 02:37:33 PM
- 708 Views
there are dozens of reasons for this
29/10/2012 08:18:18 PM
- 722 Views
Re: there are dozens of reasons for this
29/10/2012 09:07:35 PM
- 650 Views
Again I don't argue that genetics play no role
30/10/2012 01:57:24 AM
- 622 Views
Once again just so,we are clear on my stance with Genetics and Strength
30/10/2012 03:27:11 PM
- 671 Views
That the 1000 Novices aren't a random sample of the population?
29/10/2012 08:23:47 PM
- 608 Views
And why would it be biased towards those with lower strength?
29/10/2012 09:11:25 PM
- 600 Views
Absolutely no reason...
30/10/2012 01:35:35 AM
- 712 Views
Re: Absolutely no reason...
30/10/2012 06:43:54 AM
- 609 Views
Only if it was a random sampling. Which this is not.
30/10/2012 01:58:34 PM
- 686 Views
That's exactly the point. I want you to explain why it wasn't random.
30/10/2012 02:14:59 PM
- 614 Views
It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample!
30/10/2012 02:43:03 PM
- 633 Views
Re: It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample!
30/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
- 635 Views
Go read a stats text will you?
30/10/2012 02:54:16 PM
- 628 Views
Done
31/10/2012 09:34:11 AM
- 1300 Views
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent...
10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM
- 880 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent...
11/11/2012 11:37:16 AM
- 682 Views
Seriously? I went and looked at some statistics books, and you won't even reply?
01/11/2012 12:13:49 PM
- 659 Views
Yes that totally makes sense
30/10/2012 08:07:16 AM
- 751 Views
That's not what happened...
30/10/2012 02:01:52 PM
- 668 Views
I hate to get into these things
29/10/2012 05:45:50 PM
- 779 Views
I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge...
29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM
- 721 Views
In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed
29/10/2012 08:20:52 PM
- 762 Views
Overwhelm Lanfear, not match her. *NM*
29/10/2012 08:26:09 PM
- 378 Views
Truth is, Moiraine was being overly optimistic...
29/10/2012 08:39:17 PM
- 686 Views
You're pathetic...
30/10/2012 01:20:01 AM
- 617 Views
The quote isn't specific
30/10/2012 08:32:36 AM
- 737 Views
Yet neither of them are at full potential and at least equal a Forsaken
30/10/2012 03:45:24 PM
- 1226 Views
Re: In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed
29/10/2012 09:10:27 PM
- 669 Views
Lots of people mean perfectly normal distribution when they say it
30/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
- 621 Views
Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame?
30/10/2012 12:04:01 AM
- 806 Views
Re: Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame?
30/10/2012 09:33:44 AM
- 738 Views
Are you sure about that?
30/10/2012 12:03:43 PM
- 739 Views
Re: Are you sure about that?
30/10/2012 12:19:34 PM
- 652 Views
That doesn't seem a coherent narrative to me
30/10/2012 04:26:25 PM
- 934 Views
Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola
30/10/2012 05:16:40 PM
- 746 Views
Re: Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola
30/10/2012 05:54:41 PM
- 638 Views
We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers
30/10/2012 10:33:55 PM
- 764 Views
Re: We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers
31/10/2012 12:30:52 AM
- 714 Views
A handful of examples are all we have and we have proof that an extremely strong Channeler
31/10/2012 02:58:57 AM
- 546 Views
you're confusing 2 things
30/10/2012 04:27:32 AM
- 799 Views
One thing
30/10/2012 05:23:17 PM
- 712 Views
That's the problem. The BC RJ has "built" has a minimum and a maximum value
30/10/2012 05:48:55 PM
- 727 Views