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Re: Excellent points... DomA Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM
He had used those numbers for years, he had to know that the Tower would turn down 40% of all potential channellers, it gave him a basis to start with, but he was fully aware the sample among AS (not so among WF, WO) is so small it deviated from the stats (as it did with the new novices).


That is plain wrong. The sample is not so small it would deviate tha much by random chance. If both the quote about 62.5% and the 200 out of 1000 are right, then there is some mechanism by which those novices were systematically selected from the weaker part of the population. As darius_sedai said, it could be that Northern Alataran women are for some reason weaker, or it could be something else, but the sample size is not the problem.



The sample is very small, and mostly from the same areas, and again the stats are skewed by the fact the recruiting was done on a purely voluntary basis, nowhere thorough, and there's no way to know what percentage of all potential channelers from those areas they represent, but it won't be all that high (those women were from northern Murandy/southern Andor, women who had time to reach the rebel camp in the month between Egwene opening the Book to every woman and the departure for TV. It's a sample of a few hundred women that doesn't include the women recruited in the Salidar days. AS do not awake the ability of learners too weak to become AS - they simply turn them away, it's only weak wilders they agree to take in to teach them enough so they'd survive. The weak ones found in the Salidar days would have been turned away, but for a month in Northern Murandy, Egwene ordered that no one be turned away anymore. The rest of those women come from countryside around Dragonmount during the months of siege, an area where women would be far more likely to have tried going to TV to be tested in their youth, and in which the percentage of unfound ability must be abnormally smaller than in most other areas (probably not all). Among those recruits would also be an abnormal percentageof women who had gone to TV before but had been turned down as too old or too weak, but now Egwene's edict let all these women from around TV the possibility to join after all, no matter their strength or age).

In the TR the stats were skewed completely the other way, with the ability being above the normal percentage (closer to percentage of previous millenia), and with a lot of the women tested of significant, above median strength.

There would be a minimum of 2000 female channellers to recruit in the population of Caemlyn alone (if you calculate it at 1% of occurence of the ability in the global population, it's not generous, nor is it generous to put the female pop of Caemlyn at 200,000 as Lower Caemlyn has grown massively since RJ said in a Q&A the pop of Caemlyn was around 500,000 people).

And keep in mind all the evidence point to strength being determined by the soul. If there are genetic factors involved, they are genetic factors that attract naturally souls with a strong strength (and no, it's nothing to do with physical strength or big bodies... from the evidence we have, there seems to be a corollation with "soul" personality (those traits in which Rand and LTT are very close and which seems inherited from the soul and not genetic or from life experience, the whole nature vs. nurture aspect). From Siuan to Nynaeve to the Forsaken, the only woman (or man) of substantial strength we know who doesn't have a strong willed, stubborn personality is Moghedien, and for all her personality flaws, she's still strong willed and stubborn in her way - she couldn't be so good in TAR without that. We know strong personalities can have a weak ability (Morgase, Sorilea are examples), but we haven't got strong channelers with a weak personality, and it's even more flagrant in sparkers. And it's got nothing to do with confidence given by channelling, as we know from examples like Sharina and even more Nynaeve.


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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2849 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 721 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 977 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1180 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1109 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 832 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1107 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1333 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1153 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1195 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1196 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1209 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1091 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1044 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1132 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 634 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1252 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 928 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1271 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 997 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1086 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1047 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1103 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1057 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1103 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1051 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 963 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 969 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 968 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1029 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1023 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 956 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1050 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1048 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1054 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1116 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 786 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1131 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 918 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 997 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1018 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 921 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 932 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 890 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1103 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 872 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1020 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1100 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 859 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 992 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 878 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 927 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 872 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1003 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1013 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 896 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 944 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 923 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 943 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 963 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1291 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 976 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1040 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 928 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 929 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 921 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 925 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 911 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 914 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 943 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 954 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 978 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 921 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 908 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 888 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 894 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1038 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 886 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 931 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 880 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1034 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 880 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 917 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 901 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 822 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1036 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 879 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 956 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 900 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 831 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 936 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1448 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 892 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 936 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 932 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1004 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 952 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 949 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 941 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 904 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 980 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 869 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 909 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 927 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 951 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 981 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 912 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 914 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 935 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1086 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1035 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 632 Views

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