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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM

Oh, ok. I always assumed the levels were evenly distributed. Do you know if there exists a large collection of channeler strengths, enough to make a plot?

I guess making a comprehensive list would be like the mother of all those riddles where you get information like "The man in house number two drinks wine" and "The French officer is the neighbour of the man who has a dog".

I'm sure a full list of channelers exists in RJ's notes. I doubt we'll ever see it.

And I don't see why you would want to make a curve. Its not like what RJ said was a hypothesis that has to be proved. This is his world. His word is law.

If RJ said it, why are we discussing it? Do you have a link to the quote?

We're having this discussion because Shannow is a doofus.

Here are the quotes:
For Papazen, while I have spoken of souls being born with the ability to channel in response to questions, I think of it as being genetic also. In the Age of Legends, between 2 and 3% of people had some ability, following a bell curve distribution in strength. For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool. They have been very efficient at this. As a result, the "present day" sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.

Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve. I'll leave the maths to you for an idle moment. The question doesn't really apply to men, since the Black Tower accepts anyone who can learn to channel, but if the White Tower limits were applied, it would be roughly 65.4% of the bellcurve. Although, considering the effectiveness question, they should probably set it at the same 62.5%. Again, the maths are all yours. Regarding the levels of male strength, while the weakest man and the weakest woman would be roughly equivalent, you might say that there are several levels of male strength on top of the female levels. Remember to integrate this with what I've said elsewhere about effectiveness, though.


These two quotes tell us that there was a bell curve distribution in strength, not strength levels. And the way RJ referred to "the" bell curve in the second quote (which he had previously only used to describe the AoL channelers) makes it clear there's only one bell curve.

There's also this:

LUCKERS
Is strength in the power evenly distributed? Would on a scale of one to one hundred the most channelers be on the 50 mark? (within a gender, of course).
MARIA SIMONS
Jim described it as a bell curve, with most channelers in the middle.


Again, strength in the Power is the "it" in Maria's answer, and obviously most channelers would fall at the mid point.

But really, 67.5% of the channeling population strong enough to be Aes Sedai? Aren't they sending away a majority of the novices and accepted because they aren't strong enough? Or is it because the majority don't have "what it takes to be Aes Sedai"?

It is 62.5%. And the reason we don't see large numbers of Aes Sedai is that they haven't been actively recruiting, like the Black Tower. As we see with the 1000 novices who join the Rebels in response to Egwene's call (only about 200 of them are strong enough to be Aes Sedai), the subset of the population interested in becoming Aes Sedai is a bad sampling for the subset of the population that can become Aes Sedai. And the traditional Tower consisted mostly of women exclusively from the first type of sample.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2849 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 721 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 977 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1181 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1109 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 833 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1107 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1333 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1153 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1196 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1196 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1209 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1091 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1045 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1132 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 634 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1252 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 929 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1272 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 997 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1086 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1047 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1103 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1057 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1103 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1051 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 963 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 969 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 968 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1030 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1023 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1051 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1048 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1055 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1116 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 786 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1131 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 918 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 997 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1018 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 921 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 933 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 918 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 890 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1103 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 873 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1021 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1100 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 995 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 859 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 992 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 878 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 928 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 872 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1003 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1013 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 896 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 944 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 924 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 943 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 963 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1291 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 976 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1040 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 928 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 930 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 922 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 925 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 911 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 914 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 944 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 955 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 979 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 922 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 908 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 888 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 894 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1038 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 887 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 932 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 881 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1035 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 880 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 917 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 901 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 823 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1036 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 880 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 956 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 900 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 832 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 936 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1449 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 892 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 936 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 932 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1005 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 953 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 829 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 890 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 950 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 941 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 904 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 981 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 869 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 909 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 927 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 951 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 981 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 913 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 915 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 935 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 941 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1086 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1036 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 632 Views
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