Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - Edit 1
Before modification by DomA at 26/10/2012 08:51:46 PM
It seems like it. What bothers me is that if Taim has actually succeeded in turning most of the Black Tower, that alone seems like it could turn the tables in the last battle. Do we have any updated numbers on the number of people in the various factions?
I've not really kept up on this.
It's pretty murky as to exact numbers at this point. A 1000 men is in the low range if Taim's recruiting as remained steady since TPOD. There's probably a few hundreds more now.
What we know is that Taim's faction consists of full Asha'man and they are in the 100-200 range (more or less a match to the survivors of the BA), but there's been new raisings since and there are those who are getting turned then trained and raised among the men Logain left behind at the BT. And of those it seems what's left for the Light is Androl, Pevara, some soldiers incl. the TR recruits.
Logain has taken out a lot, over half the men His last comment on the matter in KOD had "over half the BT" being in Illian/Tear or had followed Rand to Arad Doman, among those there were around 40-50 full Asha'man, most of the Dedicated and the most advanced Soldiers. None of these men is from Taim's faction, at least not openly (he surely must have DF infiltrated in the lot, surely he's not stupid enough to not have kept some genuine DF as moles among the Dedicated's and Soldier's ranks).
So the BT appears to be more or less a match to the WT, but it's got far less fully trained channellers, and it's divided in two between Logain and Taim. It's quite possible Taim's full Asha'man are much better trained for destruction and nasty battle tricks (it is somewhat a little less likely they have AOL soldiering level now we know Taim was raised Chosen. It decreases the odds Demandred has passed much of his OP battle knowledge if Taim isn't a loyal lieutenant he had control over), but even there the Light has made some progress after KOD after seeing Rand use mass destruction weaves and copying them, and no doubt discovering tons of new variants and possibilities (like female versions and so on), and starting to use mix gender works a lot. No doubt Logain has spread that knowledge among the men who've not gone with Rand to Arad Doman, and has continued to train the Dedicated.
A problem is that mixed gender works hasn't remained long an exclusivity of the Light, and Taim has turned women, possibly has access to far many more BA than turned women (if the BA is at the BT, they are hidden kept somewhere else for now, and they won't come out until the lightsiders are dealt with) . It's very likely all his faction is trained at leading circles now, while Logain has too few women, and we don't know if he's "loaned" the bonded AS so most men can learn to work in links with women. It's becoming rather urgent Logain's faction (incl. his Aes Sedai) spend time with the WT/WO/Windfinders, that the bonded sisters in particular return to teach AS all they've learned. Channelers seems to pick on fast on mixed gender works, at least as long as it's not too subtle work (like finding ways to use the other half to make weaves they know incredibly more powerful. The AS will have mighty hot and big fireballs now ).
This is for now offset, only to an extent, by the fact the Light has a far, far larger capacity for large circles (it's got 100+ novices, the WO and Windfinders to add to the total of AS), and Taim's forces are more unbalanced, having far from an optimal men to women ratio. Then, the Light is bound to have a fairly large pile of male and female angreal and less san'angreal, but some like Vora's Wand are pretty mighty.
So right now it's pretty much that in brute strength and effectives, the Light is ahead of the Shadow, but the Shadow likely has better trained and nastier fighters. Some of the drealords may even have access to the True Power.
So basically, Rand's absolutely right they mustn't wait long before striking at SG, but Egwene's right too. A compromise must be found to give a few weeks for Rand's channellers to train together and increase their combat skills for the big frontal face off with dreadlords (which at best will happen at SG itself), otherwise they might be easy meat wherever a large group of Dreadlords with hundreds of thousand Shadowspawn in support goes on the attack.
The thing that mustn't happen, what might completely unbalance things, is the Shadow managing to capture a huge amount of damane early on in the LB. And for the Shadow, it's a bit the reverse: the damane mustn't join the LB in Rand's forces, especially not with Mat in command... The Shadow has to hold off/distract the stronger enemy (Rand), wipe the Seanchan then regroup under Demandred to this time assault Rand's forces for real. Won't work, because the Pattern has sent Mat to Ebou Dar to take command of the Seanchan armies and interfere with Demandred's plans.