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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA Send a noteboard - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM
It seems like it. What bothers me is that if Taim has actually succeeded in turning most of the Black Tower, that alone seems like it could turn the tables in the last battle. Do we have any updated numbers on the number of people in the various factions?



I've not really kept up on this.

It's pretty murky as to exact numbers at this point. A 1000 men is in the low range if Taim's recruiting as remained steady since TPOD. There's probably a few hundreds more now.

What we know is that Taim's faction consists of full Asha'man and they are in the 100-200 range (more or less a match to the survivors of the BA), but there's been new raisings since and there are those who are getting turned then trained and raised among the men Logain left behind at the BT. And of those it seems what's left for the Light is Androl, Pevara, some soldiers incl. the TR recruits.

Logain has taken out a lot, over half the men His last comment on the matter in KOD had "over half the BT" being in Illian/Tear or had followed Rand to Arad Doman, among those there were around 40-50 full Asha'man, most of the Dedicated and the most advanced Soldiers. None of these men is from Taim's faction, at least not openly (he surely must have DF infiltrated in the lot, surely he's not stupid enough to not have kept some genuine DF as moles among the Dedicated's and Soldier's ranks).

So the BT appears to be more or less a match to the WT, but it's got far less fully trained channellers, and it's divided in two between Logain and Taim. It's quite possible Taim's full Asha'man are much better trained for destruction and nasty battle tricks (it is somewhat a little less likely they have AOL soldiering level now we know Taim was raised Chosen. It decreases the odds Demandred has passed much of his OP battle knowledge if Taim isn't a loyal lieutenant he had control over), but even there the Light has made some progress after KOD after seeing Rand use mass destruction weaves and copying them, and no doubt discovering tons of new variants and possibilities (like female versions and so on), and starting to use mix gender works a lot. No doubt Logain has spread that knowledge among the men who've not gone with Rand to Arad Doman, and has continued to train the Dedicated.

A problem is that mixed gender works hasn't remained long an exclusivity of the Light, and Taim has turned women, possibly has access to far many more BA than turned women (if the BA is at the BT, they are hidden kept somewhere else for now, and they won't come out until the lightsiders are dealt with) . It's very likely all his faction is trained at leading circles now, while Logain has too few women, and we don't know if he's "loaned" the bonded AS so most men can learn to work in links with women. It's becoming rather urgent Logain's faction (incl. his Aes Sedai) spend time with the WT/WO/Windfinders, that the bonded sisters in particular return to teach AS all they've learned. Channelers seems to pick on fast on mixed gender works, at least as long as it's not too subtle work (like finding ways to use the other half to make weaves they know incredibly more powerful. The AS will have mighty hot and big fireballs now :P).

This is for now offset, only to an extent, by the fact the Light has a far, far larger capacity for large circles (it's got 1000+ novices, the WO and Windfinders to add to the total of AS), and Taim's forces are more unbalanced, having far from an optimal men to women ratio. Then, the Light is bound to have a fairly large pile of male and female angreal and less san'angreal, but some like Vora's Wand are pretty mighty.

So right now it's pretty much that in brute strength and effectives, the Light is ahead of the Shadow, but the Shadow likely has better trained and nastier fighters. Some of the drealords may even have access to the True Power.

So basically, Rand's absolutely right they mustn't wait long before striking at SG, but Egwene's right too. A compromise must be found to give a few weeks for Rand's channellers to train together and increase their combat skills for the big frontal face off with dreadlords (which at best will happen at SG itself), otherwise they might be easy meat wherever a large group of Dreadlords with hundreds of thousand Shadowspawn in support goes on the attack.

The thing that mustn't happen, what might completely unbalance things, is the Shadow managing to capture a huge amount of damane early on in the LB. And for the Shadow, it's a bit the reverse: the damane mustn't join the LB in Rand's forces, especially not with Mat in command... The Shadow has to hold off/distract the stronger enemy (Rand), wipe the Seanchan then regroup under Demandred to this time assault Rand's forces for real. Won't work, because the Pattern has sent Mat to Ebou Dar to take command of the Seanchan armies and interfere with Demandred's plans.





This message last edited by DomA on 26/10/2012 at 08:53:37 PM
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2768 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 686 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 940 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1094 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1023 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 749 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1030 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1249 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1073 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1121 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1111 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1108 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1019 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 977 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1051 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 601 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1162 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 855 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1185 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 918 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1011 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 966 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1024 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 956 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1021 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 970 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 892 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 895 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 901 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 949 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 873 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 971 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 955 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 985 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1046 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 738 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1041 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 880 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 928 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 944 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 856 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 846 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 822 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1025 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 793 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 942 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1023 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 787 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 913 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 804 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 842 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 805 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 930 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 932 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 817 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 863 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 853 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 855 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 886 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1217 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 904 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 961 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 882 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 861 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 836 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 845 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 837 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 843 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 882 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 885 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 897 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 850 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 832 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 815 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 809 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 960 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 809 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 866 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 813 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 960 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 810 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 845 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 827 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 751 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 969 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 805 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 891 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 820 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 753 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 855 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1372 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 823 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 858 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 851 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 931 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 864 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 887 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 862 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 832 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 906 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 794 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 831 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 852 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 874 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 914 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 835 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 839 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 856 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 998 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 959 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 601 Views

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