Everyone today is below average. Because channelers are weaker today.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
The defining property of a bell curve is that it shows the probability of finding a given value, as a function of the value, and that this probability distribution is shaped like a bell (hence the name), with the highest probability found at the average value.
I get that channelers are weaker in the Third Age, and are mostly found in the bottom half when using the same scale as during the Age of Legends. So while you can certainly use the same scale to discuss the strength of channelers in the Third Age and in the Age of Legends, it makes no sense to talk about the same bell curve, because the distribution of strengths are not the same.
We're saying exactly the same thing.
That a different distribution applied to the Age of Legends population as opposed to the Third Age population.
And I'm saying that the only way that RJ's "Bell Curve" description of channeler distribution can fit the facts as presented in the books, is if the Bell Curve he was referring to is the Age of Legends distribution, not the Third Age distribution.
Because, (to use the simplest possible example), on a Bell Curve the strongest possible channeler will be exactly twice the strength of the average channeler, and we know that it takes about 3 channelers of Moiraine's strength to match a Lanfear level channeler, therefore Moiraine cannot be higher than about 30 on the strength scale.
Hence the average strength channeler at 50 is almost twice as strong as Moiraine.
Clearly, therefore, all Aes Sedai weaker than Moiraine (which equates to about 99% of them) must fall under the lower part of the curve.
You cannot get away from that simple argument.
Hence the Bell Curve cannot apply to the modern day distribution of known channelers.
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
- 2769 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
- 686 Views
Androl did. *NM*
25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
- 940 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
- 1095 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
- 1023 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
- 1249 Views
Travelling
25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
- 1111 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
- 1109 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
- 1019 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
- 978 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
- 855 Views
How strong Pevara is...
25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
- 1186 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
- 918 Views
Agreed
25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
- 1011 Views
That was disproved long ago...
26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
- 956 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
- 1022 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
- 972 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
- 892 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
- 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
- 949 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
- 873 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
- 971 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
- 956 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
- 985 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
- 1042 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
- 880 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
- 928 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
- 945 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
- 856 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
- 846 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
- 838 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
- 822 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
- 1026 Views
So what's your conclusion?
29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
- 793 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
- 904 Views
Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
- 788 Views
Re: Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
- 913 Views
You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
- 805 Views
Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
- 842 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
- 805 Views
Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
- 931 Views
Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
- 933 Views
He drew graphs!
30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
- 818 Views
Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
- 856 Views
Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
- 886 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
- 861 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
- 836 Views
Huh?
29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
- 845 Views
Re: Huh?
29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
- 838 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
- 844 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
- 883 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
- 886 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
- 897 Views
Geography alone can do this
30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
- 850 Views
Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
- 809 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
- 961 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
- 809 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
- 810 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
- 846 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
- 827 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
- 752 Views
Nope...
30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
- 969 Views
Re: Nope...
30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
- 805 Views
Oh my...
30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
- 891 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
- 821 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
- 754 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
- 856 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
- 823 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
- 858 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
- 851 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
- 931 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
- 864 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
- 759 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
- 817 Views
How is this fact?
29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
- 888 Views
Re: How is this fact?
29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
- 863 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
- 832 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
- 852 Views
Are you blind man?
30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
- 874 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
- 856 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
- 869 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
- 998 Views