Discussion of AMOL chapter 1 (spoilers for all the released material so far) - Edit 2
Before modification by DomA at 26/09/2012 06:06:28 PM
Overall it's a really good chapter, with situations evolving swiftly now so many main characters are together. Miscommunication devices have suddenly vanished, with everyone telling things as they are.
It looks like Merrilor's gonna have one hell of a night.. these news of Andor, Egwene having to go interrogate Egeanin, Aviendha and the WO planning.
Andor, Demandred, Murandy
I'm very pleased (but not suprised, it was the possibility I favored most) that Rand saw immediately Caemlyn was a trap and they shouldn't fall into it. The debate with Elayne might be heated, but ultimately Rand should prevail. He's only talking sense on this.
Nice to see Rand sees things much as I've argued about Demandred's strategy to divide the Light to take the smaller armies out. It was really obvious given the military situation. It sounds like I was right Demandred saw the obvious too: the Light has too many cities to defend and its a big weakness. If he strikes at each in turn, he might force the Light to divide its forces. If they don't fall into that too obvious trap, they will have to deal with the refugee problem. This would also spread Shadowspawn armies to the countrysides, taking villages after villages. Of course Rand doesn't care about stone and won't defend stone. It's the people, always the people.
So Roedran is coming and so Demandred will likely have a very good report of all that's discussed at Merrilor, including most likely what Rand suspects of his master plans. That isn't good. If Demanded has replaced Roedran or taken place near him, it seems to mean I was right he would go on remaining hidden for a while. For now he no doubt wants to see first what Rand and the others will ask of Roedran, and if there couldn't be much to gain by betraying this.
It looks like Rand like me expected Demandred to strike south. It reinforces my notion that Roedran means to provoke the Seanchan into an attack on Murandy itself, not invade Andor. A foolish plan, but I'm sure if Demandred is in Murandy, the armies of Murandians are largely a decoy, or cannon fodder if you prefer. If he attacks the Seanchan, he'll use the Murandians as bait for a trap and he'll have Dreadlords and Shadowspawn ready to strike at both sides.
So now Roedran's coming to make friendly-friendly with everyone else. IMO, his real plan his to provoke an attack from Tuon, then sound the alarm to Rand's side that the Seanchan are sending their whole armies in the field and already overunning Murandy (he might hide the fact they can Travel). Rand's side would have no choice but to fight the two front wars there, before the Seanchan comes striking them in the back at the worse moment. When Rand's forces engage the Seanchan in force to end it once and for all, Demandred will strike at both.
Black Tower
Events could evolve quickly with the BT now they stood aside at Caemlyn. Egwene too is going to wonder very soon why 47 AS, their warders and a TG contigent have not even reported the attack. Rand/Logain should reveal during the night Taim has almost certainly been serving the Shadow.
It doesn't mean Rand/Egwene will strike (most likely not, that'd be falling into the trap), but it will mean Taim is definitely out in the open. My old impression hasn't changed: It may be too late, Taim's forces will either have turned all he could, killed the rest and moved out of the BT by the time the Light is ready to deal with him, or Taim will evacuate it if there's an incoming attack. The Light would need to come at him without Travelling, he'll have plenty of time. He also has hostages. A bit of torturing the Asha'man's families as the attack approaches should slow things down... or if Taim rather wants to provoke such an attack to use it as a trap, when he's ready he'll torture the families to draw enough Asha'man/AS into his trap, then shut off the dreamspike and strike. The only good spin to put on the BT right now is that if Rand or Logain had striked earlier at it, they were in for a very, very bad and costly surprise. But the waiting is likely to be costly too.
Egwene
She's really become the Amyrlin now. She initially reacted to Rand based on feelings from a Dream, but she's done the right thing since and put the resources of the Tower to research if she was right or wrong with her intuitions Rand shouldn't break the seals. That's not gonna be an immature shouting match with both sides standing on its positions, the debate is gonna go to the core of things.
This chapter pretty much confirms Rand has really provoked Egwene on purpose and counted on her to react to this by gathering the rulers to Merrilor with their forces.
I also realized at last it doesn't matter who's right and who's wrong. The Wheel wanted all the armies together at Merrilor, it got all the armies at Merrilor. The debate will decide where to go from there, and neither Egwene nor Rand are in a divisive mood. Before the meeting itself I think we're gonna see soon Egwene taking Rand's side on the matter of Caemlyn. It's not only Elayne who will be willing to do something, it's many rulers who will panic over the news Caemlyn was destroyed (it will be interesting to see how Roedran reacts, if he's one of those arguing they should all return home, with contingents of AS and Asha'man). Egwene's gonna throw her weight behind Rand's decision to only evacuate and destroy Waygates. She might also argue for gathering the refugees from the LB at Tar Valon. I get the feeling before the end not many great cities will still stand, aside from TV.
Nice to see Elayne has brought out of Caemlyn her stash of OP objects... or for now let's say at least the AOL Library... I'm eager to see how the extra Talisman of Growing will be used, and it's been seized by the Shadow or not.
The Asha'man no longer have a safer power base with Caemlyn destroyed and Taim pretty much exposed... it shouldn't be very long before they're based in Tar Valon for the LB too. The Tower has the extra space for them, it's been built with everything doubled.
I wonder a lot if Logain has come to Merrilor, but I expect he did.
And it looks like Moiraine still hasn't arrived. I guess she'll turn up on the day of the meeting, and with the news Mat has gone straight to his wife to try to convince her to come to Merrilor or at least stop the Return. This is why Rand will push the matter of the Seanchan out of the way for now, thinking it's up to Mat to solve it. Whatever Egwene comes up with, it will be pushed aside for now. But Mat won't come, and days will pass and he still won't come. When the Seanchan go on the offensive, Rand's side will believe Mat has betrayed them. What Mat will do is gain control of Tuon's army. He'll understand the only way to make Tuon see reason is to lead her forces in battle and see for themselves as things stand it's either joining the other side or see the Shadow wipe Rand's side and come for the Seanchan next. He could for instance argue and plan an attack on Caemlyn and the BT... that it's the real seat of Rand's power and the strongest city... knowing the Seanchan will find only the Shadow there.
It looks like Merrilor's gonna have one hell of a night.. these news of Andor, Egwene having to go interrogate Egeanin, Aviendha and the WO planning.
Andor, Demandred, Murandy
I'm very pleased (but not suprised, it was the possibility I favored most) that Rand saw immediately Caemlyn was a trap and they shouldn't fall into it. The debate with Elayne might be heated, but ultimately Rand should prevail. He's only talking sense on this.
Nice to see Rand sees things much as I've argued about Demandred's strategy to divide the Light to take the smaller armies out. It was really obvious given the military situation. It sounds like I was right Demandred saw the obvious too: the Light has too many cities to defend and its a big weakness. If he strikes at each in turn, he might force the Light to divide its forces. If they don't fall into that too obvious trap, they will have to deal with the refugee problem. This would also spread Shadowspawn armies to the countrysides, taking villages after villages. Of course Rand doesn't care about stone and won't defend stone. It's the people, always the people.
So Roedran is coming and so Demandred will likely have a very good report of all that's discussed at Merrilor, including most likely what Rand suspects of his master plans. That isn't good. If Demanded has replaced Roedran or taken place near him, it seems to mean I was right he would go on remaining hidden for a while. For now he no doubt wants to see first what Rand and the others will ask of Roedran, and if there couldn't be much to gain by betraying this.
It looks like Rand like me expected Demandred to strike south. It reinforces my notion that Roedran means to provoke the Seanchan into an attack on Murandy itself, not invade Andor. A foolish plan, but I'm sure if Demandred is in Murandy, the armies of Murandians are largely a decoy, or cannon fodder if you prefer. If he attacks the Seanchan, he'll use the Murandians as bait for a trap and he'll have Dreadlords and Shadowspawn ready to strike at both sides.
So now Roedran's coming to make friendly-friendly with everyone else. IMO, his real plan his to provoke an attack from Tuon, then sound the alarm to Rand's side that the Seanchan are sending their whole armies in the field and already overunning Murandy (he might hide the fact they can Travel). Rand's side would have no choice but to fight the two front wars there, before the Seanchan comes striking them in the back at the worse moment. When Rand's forces engage the Seanchan in force to end it once and for all, Demandred will strike at both.
Black Tower
Events could evolve quickly with the BT now they stood aside at Caemlyn. Egwene too is going to wonder very soon why 47 AS, their warders and a TG contigent have not even reported the attack. Rand/Logain should reveal during the night Taim has almost certainly been serving the Shadow.
It doesn't mean Rand/Egwene will strike (most likely not, that'd be falling into the trap), but it will mean Taim is definitely out in the open. My old impression hasn't changed: It may be too late, Taim's forces will either have turned all he could, killed the rest and moved out of the BT by the time the Light is ready to deal with him, or Taim will evacuate it if there's an incoming attack. The Light would need to come at him without Travelling, he'll have plenty of time. He also has hostages. A bit of torturing the Asha'man's families as the attack approaches should slow things down... or if Taim rather wants to provoke such an attack to use it as a trap, when he's ready he'll torture the families to draw enough Asha'man/AS into his trap, then shut off the dreamspike and strike. The only good spin to put on the BT right now is that if Rand or Logain had striked earlier at it, they were in for a very, very bad and costly surprise. But the waiting is likely to be costly too.
Egwene
She's really become the Amyrlin now. She initially reacted to Rand based on feelings from a Dream, but she's done the right thing since and put the resources of the Tower to research if she was right or wrong with her intuitions Rand shouldn't break the seals. That's not gonna be an immature shouting match with both sides standing on its positions, the debate is gonna go to the core of things.
This chapter pretty much confirms Rand has really provoked Egwene on purpose and counted on her to react to this by gathering the rulers to Merrilor with their forces.
I also realized at last it doesn't matter who's right and who's wrong. The Wheel wanted all the armies together at Merrilor, it got all the armies at Merrilor. The debate will decide where to go from there, and neither Egwene nor Rand are in a divisive mood. Before the meeting itself I think we're gonna see soon Egwene taking Rand's side on the matter of Caemlyn. It's not only Elayne who will be willing to do something, it's many rulers who will panic over the news Caemlyn was destroyed (it will be interesting to see how Roedran reacts, if he's one of those arguing they should all return home, with contingents of AS and Asha'man). Egwene's gonna throw her weight behind Rand's decision to only evacuate and destroy Waygates. She might also argue for gathering the refugees from the LB at Tar Valon. I get the feeling before the end not many great cities will still stand, aside from TV.
Nice to see Elayne has brought out of Caemlyn her stash of OP objects... or for now let's say at least the AOL Library... I'm eager to see how the extra Talisman of Growing will be used, and it's been seized by the Shadow or not.
The Asha'man no longer have a safer power base with Caemlyn destroyed and Taim pretty much exposed... it shouldn't be very long before they're based in Tar Valon for the LB too. The Tower has the extra space for them, it's been built with everything doubled.
I wonder a lot if Logain has come to Merrilor, but I expect he did.
And it looks like Moiraine still hasn't arrived. I guess she'll turn up on the day of the meeting, and with the news Mat has gone straight to his wife to try to convince her to come to Merrilor or at least stop the Return. This is why Rand will push the matter of the Seanchan out of the way for now, thinking it's up to Mat to solve it. Whatever Egwene comes up with, it will be pushed aside for now. But Mat won't come, and days will pass and he still won't come. When the Seanchan go on the offensive, Rand's side will believe Mat has betrayed them. What Mat will do is gain control of Tuon's army. He'll understand the only way to make Tuon see reason is to lead her forces in battle and see for themselves as things stand it's either joining the other side or see the Shadow wipe Rand's side and come for the Seanchan next. He could for instance argue and plan an attack on Caemlyn and the BT... that it's the real seat of Rand's power and the strongest city... knowing the Seanchan will find only the Shadow there.