I much preferred the notion that Demandred didn't play that game. No point holding to debunked theories, though (though this one doesn't exclude the possibility that Demandred's alter ego isn't the centerpiece of his plans, and that he hasn't recruited other armies as I thought he did) !

So... onward.

Unless I'm mistaken, the various quotes by RJ and Brandon and Demandred's own declarations on the matter (like "my rule is secure) pretty much narrow it down, as far as viable options go, to the Lugard court (to say "to Roedran himself" would be too much and jumping to conclusions at this point. We have little notion of who and what is at the Lugard court. Roedran might have a newly arrived young lord who's a military genius at his side for all we know. So far only Mesaana has adopted the guise of someone existing or previously known in the circle that was infiltrated, which is not to say Demandred may not have done it too. But it would make more sense for him to be a military advisor who came to Roedran offering him to secure his rule on the whole nation. As Roedran, Demandred would lose a lot of mobility, a King's always under the watchful eyes of advisors, servants, courtiers, mistresses and such. Sammael, Be'lal, Rahvin... they were "new" rulers. They built their own loyal households. Roedran couldn't replace all of his without rumors of this spreading to merchants, and from there to Andor and co.)

RJ once said we could figure it out (and if I'm not mistaken, that was at the time of WH, which excludes a very great deal of storylines, like Demandred setting himself up in Seanchan, Shara etc.). We know from Mesaana as Danelle that the clues could be small and few. Pre-WH, the one thing that really stood out is how the hiring of the Band was meant to stop Egwene's advance (which profited Mesaana), and help Roedran unify Murandy. Add to that the mention by Siuan(?) that Roedran's strategies were surprising for his character (which I interpreted previously as a clue his rebel AS advisors were guiding Roedran in a pro-Hall, anti-Egwene agenda),

Points of interest:

- the only character who's met Roedran and probably his court in the flesh the series's timeframe is Talmanes. He and the Band will be the ones who know most about the organization of armies and such in Murandy... and they're with Elayne or in Caemlyn, nowehere near Mat for now.

- Demandred's presence in Lugard would confirm my intuition about the Hall working to get rid of the Band of the Red Hand but requires some adaptation: Mesaana and Demandred, however they did it in the details, "rid" the Rebel Aes Sedai of the Band of the Red Hand, to stop their progression to TV and maybe so they'd be trapped in that area, and because Demandred decided to use the Band to unify the country behind Roedran's rule.

- Roedran gave Talmanes a rare ancient book on warfare, one generals have long forgotten and that only Mat knows, from his memories (again, I had interpreted that as one of the AS advisors being a Brown historians, providing Roedran with such books). But now this suggests Demandred, who "re invented war" alongside Lews Therin but in a modern context, did his homework and learned all he could about more primitive warfare. That seemingly includes the Trollocs War and the War of Hundred Years, and no doubt all he could find on the Green Ajah and such. What they know and don't, how they fight with armies, against Shadowspawn, their weaknesses and strengths. Conveniently, Mesaana was disguised as a Brown scholar sitting on the biggest repository of books of the third age. If Demandred's done that, Mat has just lost himself a big advantage. His tactics and strategies, very unusual for the New Era, might not surprise Demandred as much as expected.

- If we place Demandred in Lugard, we probably have the solution to the presence of at least one but probably more (off screen) DH superpack from CoT: After the DF Asha'man WH bumped into Padan Fain in Far Madding Demandred or Moridin who knew of Demandred's preparations in Lugard sent packs of DH to hunt Fain down... packs who never found Fain because he's gone and used a Waygate to move to the Blight.

- If Demandred is at the Lugard Court, then the problem remains that the Murandians aren't Darkfriends. That means this confines Demandred's actions (with the Murandians, he can't possibly have just THAT and Shadowspawn invasions planned for the war) to a war that makes sense to the Murandians. The prevalent theory was that Roedran could wreck chaos and confusion in southern Andor (but the second part was that it distracted Elayne's armies from Caemlyn.. that doesn't hold anymore), but there's not much point to that anymore and this would attract attention fast. The Light has all it needs to stop a war with Andor fast and move on.

- So we're back to the fact Mat in KOD noticed a lot of preparations going on the Altara/Murandy borders. It's probably Altara and the Seanchan Demandred means to have the Murandian attack. He's set up some trap for the Seanchan armies, to prevent them from joining Rand in the North to fight TG. The fact Jordan sent Mat back to Ebou Dar suddenly makes a lot more sense in this light. That's a war Rand and Egwene might actually turn a blind eye to, Roedran's chances against the Seanchan wouldn't be good (unless Demandred has more forces he'll use that the Murandians won't know about), but in the meantime it's delaying the Merrilor group having to fight the Shadow and the Seanchan at the same time... and it could lead them to let Roedran fight his war. All this could mean the Murandians won't be suspected of serving the Shadow until fairly late in the game. Demandred could probably wreck havoc if he joins this army to the alliance of the Light down the line, but when this happens he infiltrates it first with all the channelers he can count on. If for instance this took place in a last gathering of weakened forces of the Light around Tar Valon before Rand moves to SG, a sudden surprise attack from inside the gathering by Demandred's forces could be devastating.

- Moridin told Moghedien: "Demandred wants you watching over one of the armies that now lacks proper monitoring." I initially interpreted it as Demandred needing Moghedien to take charge of an army of the Shadow that had lost its Forsaken watchdog (perhaps Semirhage's duty, but more likely Mesaana's). It just sounds just as likely now, if not more likely, that what Demandred actually requires of Moghedien is to "properly monitor" an enemy army that's lost its Forsaken spy, to report its moves and plans, to be at hand to perform assassinations and sabotage and so on. That's pretty much up Moghedien's alley. In short, I was perhaps mistaken about giving her tasks meant for Mesaana, and it's rather Semirhage's loss Moghedien is meant to overcome: she's been sent (back) to Ebou Dar. And that too seems to make a lot of sense all of a sudden as we see the pieces Jordan put in place: her old friend Liandrin's there. Her back story also makes sense: Moghedien began her WOS career infiltrated in the Aes Sedai war état-major...

- So if Moghedien isn't taking care of the BA... that leaves a position of Chosen open for Alviarin who is a creature of Ishamael (and more recently a hound for SH). That would explain Moridin's initial "there are people you need to meet", only to introduce Taim only (he specifically excluded Hessalam as one of the people they needed to meet). Someone might want to ask Brandon on Twitter or a Q&A if that "there are people" is a mistake (Terez?)

- If Moghedien is sent to Ebou Dar, that narrows down the options for Graendal. Given her skills, it's probable she'll have to perform compel-and-run missions at least. If we also look at the foreshadowing, Graendal runs a wide, very wide network of spies and agents (Aran'gar judged she had the largest network of DF and followers). We know this network ranges far outside AD: Graendal constantly seemed to know a lot... Caemlyn, Cairhien, the south, the power bases of the other Chosen she could find and so on. The most interesting element is that Graendal's network in the Tower is good enough she was able to outdo Alviarin and puzzle out exactly what Mesaana has been doing there and which Aes Sedai she was. This speaks for Graendal's network extending beyond the sisters, to servants/staff and novices and such Mesaana probably wasn't as circumspect around - like all sisters who just ignore those people most of the time. Such a network would have survived the BA purge... and even be in part present with the sisters at Merrilor. Moridin could also want Graendal at some point to locate and rescue or kill Mesaana. The Shadow may not know yet the extent of her brain damages, that Mesaana "prisoner" of Egwene isn't a liability.