Active Users:913 Time:15/11/2024 05:11:26 PM
Soon might be relative... - Edit 2

Before modification by DomA at 27/05/2012 02:23:13 AM

Has it actually been confirmed that Ishy corrupted the Seanchan prophecies, or is that simply the conclusion most people have drawn?


It is not confirmed that Ishamael did it, but yes it's confirmed by Sanderson that the Seanchan KC prophecies have been to an extent corrupted, and also that some of the Foretelling from the damane which are also part of the Essanik Cycle like the KC aren't genuine (in part because the Seanchan don't understand what a foretelling really is , and also because it's what happens with captives... they often tell you what you want to hear... remember how Tuon lost control and had a damane beaten for a foretelling she didn't like. Brandon said some of that happened, so any prophecy sounding too triumphant for the Empire is kind of suspicious).

Ishamael couldn't easily corrupt the Westlands's prophecies. The prophecies in the Westlands exist in way too many copies. The White Tower arose right after the Breaking and was always too powerful, and too rich in scholars, to allow for corruptions. Corruptions can only be found in biased translations and interpretations, but that can't fool scholars of the prophecies, who compare several translations and the Old Tongue original. At best, it's not impossible Ishamael during the early breaking managed to leak false foretelling, but at the time he didn't exactly have much information to do this.... There may be a few distortions.. a few words here and there that were taking down wrong, or which got altered in copies (though considering the nature of the prophecies... Foretellers would have been very cautious). Mostly, there must be many foretelling that got lost and never made it into the KC.

In Seanchan, the full Westlands KC prophecies were introduced a thousand years ago only, by Luthair's expedition (it's very likely some of the KC prophecies, especially those from the WOS, also survived in Seanchan). Ishamael is highly suspected (BWB) of having been Hawkwing's main advisor Moerad. That advisor is behind the oversea expeditions in the first place. He knew what they'd find on the other side, so it was easy enough for him to craft meaningful corruptions. It was fairly easy for Ishamael to corrupt the copy of the KC Luthair brought along, and introduce new verses. He just had to offer him an amazing copy as a departure gift... Changed, removed, altered verses here and there wouldn't be noticed until it was way too late, with too few versions of the Westlands' version to even know which one was right.

In Seanchan, we know the Empire once it rose "uniformized" the Prophecies, ie: eliminated versions that didn't conform to the Imperial one. The Imperial version of the KC is integrated in a larger set of prophecies (many of which were made by damane, thus after Luthair) known as the Essanik Cycle.

Why is that one "more reliable"? Where is it written that Ishy badly corrupted the Seanchan prophecies but left those in the Westlands untouched? Bearing in mind that it was at Hawkwings court WEST of the Aryth where he is generally understood to have been chief counselor.


That just doesn't make sense. You forget the WT.


In any event, kneeling to the Crystal Throne and binding the Nine Moons to him are not mutually exclusive; if anything, quite the opposite, as an allegiance to the Empress would unquestionably be a bond. The prophecy we have is not clear whom, if anyone, will be on the controlling end of that bond, but does explicitly state it will exist.


The Nine Moons aren't the Empress but the whole Court, or they refer to Tuon. Either way, it seems like the binding already occured when Mat married Tuon. He joined the Nine Moons as Prince of Ravens is one interpretation, his bond to the DotNM is the other interpretation. We just haven't seen how Mat's wedding will impact on bringing the Seanchan back to the rest of the Light.

Rand knows all too well people can be involuntarily Bonded; what if the prophecy means THAT?


Not a chance.

Seanchan prophecies of Rand himself are frequently cited, yet never directly, which can only be deliberate.


Exactly.

If it even contains that verse; correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe we know if it was recorded before or after Luthair departed the Westlands.


The first prophecies that were colliged as what would become the KC surfaced during the War of Shadow itself, many others surfaced during the Breaking. Jordan did not give us a very precise timeline, but he said the full KC existed by shortly after the Breaking. What had been preserved (many prophecies must have been lost) must have been colliged when the scattered groups of Aes Sedai came together at the founding of the WT.

It's not been added to since, we know that. So yes, the verse should be in Luthair's copy, unless Moerad removed or altered it. It's possible the Seanchan have not made the "unstained tower"/white tower connection.

But anyway... as I said I'm pretty sure unstained tower didn't mean the White Tower but the Tower as it stands now, without the stain of the Shadow in it. Thus its final breaking so they can all bend knee to the old AS symbol, in the sense of creating a new reunified organization for male and female AS, in which the Guardians will join and thus the Servants will be balanced again (the Guardians will bring balance to the Servants, not the Guardians and Servants will balance one another... the Asha'man will bring balance to the Aes Sedai, by becoming the male Aes Sedai the Servants currently miss to be balanced), has not yet happened.

That is one reason I do not expect Egwene to survive TG, or at least not lead the WT: I do not believe her suited to lead a "co-ed" WT (or perhaps "Gray Tower.") All the Bonded Aes Sedai in his wake, and in particular the two he personally Bonded, make Logain a far better choice, IMHO.


I don't agree the men/Logain are a better choice, and I think co-leadership is a counterproductive idea, furthering the gender divisions. The men will be invited back into the organization, but it will take a generation or two before the old prejudices start to wane. How the new Aes Sedai guild will be organized (we won't see much of that beside the "second founding" depends on too many factors (will it be more federative - as it is now, or will it work to dissolve the current bonds? The time of the Ajah as political factions is over, I believe), but it can't be lead by a man, and not for a good while. There's just too much for Logain and co. to learn about organizations like the WT. He's no manager or administrator, merely a charismatic field commander. The male leaders' priorities will be to develop an internal organization suited for men, devoid of a military aspect, and how to anchor the men into the existing WT's training system (with help from the sisters, they'll need to develop saidin training - it's not the "as fast as possible, no matter if students die, and priority on blowing things up" methods of the BT that will help them, it's the established methods of the women groups) , and with the sisters, WO, WF develop a whole new program of mixed gender training. It's also the sisters who have all the scholars able to teach non-OP disciplines which the men will also have to learn. The Seafolk have the traditions of channellers in service to their people, and experience at making it work. The WO will kind of obviously be the main contributors to reforming Tower laws and develop the ethical code for channelers that will replace the Three Oaths down the line.

And there's no good reason for dual-leadership, Lews Therin was a man and he lead all Aes Sedai. The big problem, when the Guild stopped functioning, surfaced when a woman decided to turn the female Aes Sedai into a faction...

Under the unique leader there's forcibly need for men on whatever type of council/assembly they come up with to replace the current Hall - and the most prominent of these men could be Logain (if he lives and doesn't go out as a TG hero in a blaze of glory... many think he will) - but for now only a female Aes Sedai can lead that organization. The Seafolk, WO and former Asha'man will forcibly have a lot of influence on massive changes to the Aes Sedai's role and how they're run - to begin with they'll spark a return of the Aes Sedai to their nations of birth/choice. But it's clear the WT has the core of the future organization, and are the only ones who have the knowledge and experience to run it.

Of course, that the new unified organization won't emerge during TG. For TG, Egwene's makeshift alliance of all groups, to which the Asha'man are still missing but not for long, will have to make do. So yes, in that sense Logain will no doubt lead the Asha'man, for the duration of TG. The war, however, will be the crucible from which a unified organization will emerge.

You're views of Egwene, I think, are fairly off. She has just the right mix of respect/understanding for the 3000 years of WT traditions and the youthful drive and determination to change things, without the inhibitions and taboos of older Aes Sedai. She also has the novices behind her now, the next generation, that will be trained very differently. Egwene would already have thrown a lot overboard, but Siuan made her understand the need and purpose of what has made the Tower, but she went too far in conservatism. Siuan held her back a lot, but her role near Egwene has now diminished, and now Egwene will have to absorb other influences and ideas. No way the WF and WO will follow a man for now.



You put on rosy glasses or something. There's no way in hell Rand can make the Seanchan Empress the top political leader. Even bending knee to her would amount to legitimizing her claim to hegemony. Right then and there Rand would lose the WT, the Asha'man, and most of the Westlands rulers. The only political leader the Westlands rulers may accept is the Amyrlin Seat, and the only leader the Seanchan will accept is their Empress. Fortuona and Egwene may have no choice to work together, but really... it's probably best the two groups stay apart yet agree to collaborate against the Shadow. And which leader can serve as liaison between Amyrlin and Empress? Perrin, of course. Perrin is the ta'veren political glue. Mat is the military ta'veren, Rand's job is Shai'tan/Moridin and co.

The Seanchan/Westlands merger won't happen. We know five-to-ten years after the Last Battle, Fortuona and Mat will cross the Aryth to reconquer Seanchan. And of course, that invalidates Aviendha's "future", where the Seanchan rather stay and finish the Return (they've already lost too much to be able to do both). A temporary alliance/truce of the Light for the duration of TG will happen, but that will be it.

Tarmon Gaidon began no later than the Battle of Maradon,


You can pick whatever random event you like as the beginning of the LB, some look as far back as Rand's birth.


Before TGS came out, Brandon however said toward the 2/3 mark the main characters would come together during an event that marked the start of the LB. That's clearly Merrilor/the Battle of Caemlyn, not the invasion from the Blight.


Mat, of course, simply will not stand for women collared for life all around him; FAR too much of his plotline has been devoted to rescuing channelers from adam for that to be remotely plausible.


I do expect with the Seanchan it will come to the a'dam being used for criminal channelers only, but unless it's soon found out the sul'dam can learn enough to be brought into circles very fast, it's already too late for the a'dam to be abandonned during the LB. As you must remember from previous attempts, most damane freak out without their sul'dam, and aren't used to think for themselves in battle. So the only realistic option may be to give enough training to sul'dam so they can link without the a'dam, but remain at the damane's side in battle - they will lead verbally, but they won't lead in the circle. That, the damane will have to do. That would greatly increase the power of each damane, all the more since there are far more sul'dam than damane. We don't have the exact ratio, but it looks like each damane could have a circle of 3 or 4 sul'dam to lead, if not more. Either Mat will convince his wife to agree to that at least for the Seanchan-born damane (most of the new ones Fortuona can't really trust), or the a'dam will remain through TG.

I think the other thing Mat will manage to convince Tuon of eventually will be to agree to is to release the Westlanders held as damane.

But the matters have not evolved enough yet for this to be even remotely plausible. The Seanchan will have to suffer a huge setback or see very clearly their own impending doom, before Fortuona even lets Mat finish the sentence by which he would suggest anything like this...

Which is why I think Mat will begin TG by leading the Seanchan armies and it's only later what's left of the forces of the Light are forced to unite or be crushed separately.

Well, what is the alternative? That the Seanchan, along with the half of the Westlands they conquered, sit out TG?


Of course not. Mat will make them fight the LB, just not for now at the other's half side. Mat is the one who will make sure to divert the Seanchan from the WT.

I think he will see the peril and make his biggest prank ever. He will convince Fortuona her next move is not to attack the White Tower a second time, as currently planned, but the BT/Caemlyn, and will make a demonstration of his military genius by coming up with a brilliant plan for that.

Mat will know the Shadow already holds Caemlyn and the BT, the Seanchan won't.

The dreamspike will prevent the Seanchan from standing even a chance of success against the BT, and trying to will show them how devastingly superior Demandred's channelers are, not to mention a sea of Shadowspawn as far as the eye can see. They will be forced to retreat.

Then Mat, and behind him the Seanchan generals, will have the aces he needs to convince Fortuona the only option left is to join the other half of the Light, to teach the sul'dam how to link to have circles etc.

does require some kind of arrangement between Rand and Tuon.


Not yet. Rand has already given up on the Seanchan, and it's not news of their attack of Tar Valon that will convince him to make another attempt. At this point, even suggesting it has to be done would kill in the bud any attempt to get the WT on his side.

Dreams and such strongly suggests Egwene and the Seanchan will meet Rand together.

Foreshadowing also suggests Perrin has a role to play in convincing Egwene it's possible to work with the Seanchan, even for channellers, that there are Seanchan who are willing to make truces and hold to their word, to fight a common enemy too big for either side.

It sounds quite possible this ends up negotiated between Mat and Perrin down the line, as the Light sends Perrin to meet Tylee.

It's only afterward Fortuona will be brought to Rand, with Egwene present apparently.

I don't think Mat will go to Merrilor. I think he will decide he must go to Ebou Dar when he sees Caemlyn conquered, and calculates the Light is doomed if the Seanchan don't join the other half of the Light. But he will find an Empress more convinced then ever to put an end to the WT and capture Rand. He won't convince her with words.

I think Moiraine will tell Rand and co. Mat has gone to bring the Seanchan Empress to her senses, while Thom reveals to everyone Mat is married to the Empress. But Mat won't return. In TGH, in the Portal Stones trip, he saw himself betraying his friends.

That's the "betrayal" in question, Mat will switch to the Seanchan's side, in all appearances.

Rand will make his peace with it, perhaps fairly fast (telling himself as long as the Seanchan fight the Shadow... and Moiraine reminding him about The Will of the Wheel and all that.). But I'm convinced with the channellers, several rulers including Elayne, Mat going to the Seanchan, being married to their Empress, won't sit well at all. Until they realize Mat is there precisely to keep the Seanchan away from them and focussed on the Shadow. Once they realize just how strong the Shadow is, how fast it makes gains against the Light and that they absolutely need the Seanchan, then Egwene and co. will send Perrin to Tylee/Mat.

Sheer numbers, brute force and outright brutality will do that. Even without the hordes of Trollocs and Myrddraal, a significant portion of surviving Aes Sedai are BA, and Rands plan to recruit and field an army of male channelers loyal to the Light is backfiring spectacularly thanks to Taim.


Oh, I don't expect the Shadow's channelers to be nearly so small as Taim's faction... This was merely an advanced group, placed there to be able to eliminate Rand's forces when TG begins. Much of that has been avoided, because Logain has brought the vast majority of the Asha'man not tied to Taim out of the BT in KOD. The direst thing now is that Taim is holding the families of many of Logain's Asha'man - and that won't be pretty at all. It won't be easy to convince the Asha'man to focus on anything but rescuing these people (if Taim decides to make them hostages) or to finish off the BT for revenge (if Taim opts for slaughtering the families.. which could turn into a very dangerous trap for the Light because of their bonds)

The BA is no longer so significant. They lost massively, and for now a lot of the remaining BA are scattered anyway. Regrouped, there remains Alviarin's forces, the ones who managed to flee before the purge and haven't later died in Mesaana's attempt to kill Egwene. That's still many more AS to each BA, before adding the Windfinders, WO, Accepted and even novices, who can be used in circles.

But Demandred has recruited other female as well as male channelers, I'm pretty sure.

According to that blueprint, the Seanchan remained at odds with Rand and the Westlands nations not under their heel well over half-way into the last book; how much longer can that reasonably continue?


At least a third into the last act I would say, maybe halfway. It's hard to tell in terms of length, but I would place my bet on "when the Light has suffered enough and it's time to begin to turn the tide". So I would say perhaps for the last major battle of Tarmon Gai'don, before the SG endgame, is when the Seanchan and the other half will finally join their forces.

It is very possible that the speculated Seanchan attack on the BT will divert to a liberation of Caemlyn


Liberation? Well... as to that...

IMO, the Band of the Red Hand will focuss on holding the Inner City (it's far from the Waygate, but close to the Band's camp) where they will try to evacuate as many people as possible from the New City, turning the cannons against the Shadowspawn (and forcibly wrecking much havoc on Caemlyn itself). I believe Elayne and Kinswomen will return from Merrilor unaware of this battle, Travelling back in the palace and finding mayhem everywhere, the city virtually fallen. As the Band desperately holds the gates of the Inner City, Elayne will focus on evacuating the rescued population (to Cairhien?). Then the gates will fall, the channelers will link to try to kill as many Shadowspawn as possible.

Further efforts will have to focus on evacuating the population for leagues around Caemlyn (it's the most populated area of Andor) and regrouping the armies of Andor, a good part of which Elayne has sent to the Andoran borders before leaving for Merrilor (as she expected another kind of invasion altogether...).

So I don't think the matter of "liberating Caemlyn" will be much of an issue....

Cities can be rebuilt, it's their population the rulers will have to care about, and before long I highly suspect the Light will have to begin sending its weak, old and youth to the Stedding the Shadowspawn won't enter, and in which the Shadow's channellers can't channel.

I suspect several cities to fall to the Shadow, then once these armies are in place they will focus of the Light's real weakness: the scattered population. I also suspect the attack on Caemlyn is only one of several attacks. I wouldn't put it past Demandred to seize or destroy Illian, Tear, Rhuidean, Cairhien and Caemlyn with Shadowspawn armies simultaneously, as it would be a strong symbol (all the cities conquered by Rand), and one Demandred might calculate is bound to infuriate Rand. That would place the Light on the defensive immediately, force them to focus on saving the population around these new Shadowspawn-bases before they end in the Trollocs' pots, which means scattering their forces. That would in turn let Demandred launch targeted attacks with the channellers on these armies coming to gather and evacuate the people.

Stones are just stones. People can't be "rebuilt". The Shadow's only real goal is to free Shai'tan.

Rand's answer to the series of attacks may well be the breaking of the seals. That's about the only thing that could make the Shadow halt and slow down the multiple attacks, as the breaking of the last seals can only mean Rand is very close to the strike at SG.

//pause, it's time to join the neighbourhood's daily effort to piss off the 1% and their minions.//

Okay, I'm back. Let's see...

Ultimately, I think it will come to most of the Light's forces being based in Tar Valon, the last great city they will still hold. I think it's there the "Great Battle" will take place, on both sides of the river, followed by the final strike at SG. It's at that battle I think the Seanchan will join with the others. By then, most of the "non-combattants" will have been sent in stedding, IMO.

It's at that battle Mat will finally lead everyone and defeat Demandred.


Merrilor is almost incidental to what is converging on Caemlyn.


Except I think the invasion of Caemlyn takes place during Merrilor, and the Light won't hear of that before Elayne returns to Caemlyn. The Light will hear about the final word about the BT and the impossibility to open gateways there after Merrilor or at the end of Merrilor as well.

They won't mount a gigantic concerted attack on the Shadow at Caemlyn immediately, because Caemlyn isn't the only place the Shadow will have striked at.





Sidebar: What kind of fighting soldier wears LACQUERED armor? With all Jordans sneers at parade ground swords, he has an elite military in gear fabricated by armorers who double as cosmetologists?! Sure, samurai had some rather ornate armor, as did Medieval knights—for CEREMONIAL use; in combat, I believe they typically wore plain unadorned leather.


Lower samurai yes. Not the officers and lords. Those fought or rather directed battles wearing those lacquered armors and lacquered masks/helmets. The lacquered armors weren't just for show, though the lacquer itself was of course decorative.

I don't think the Seanchan armors are purely Japanese. They're lacquered, but not made of wood. They're not so different than Westlands painted or gilded armor, just decorated with lacquer instead.








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