IMO, Mat leaves for Ebou Dar after Merrilor.

I guess there's a possibility Mat makes the decision on his own after witnessing the loss of Caemlyn to the Shadow (nice to see this confirmed at last, that's been a pet theory for several books now...) and upon hearing the WT did get attacked by the Seanchan. Mat is a military genius and he's going to see this in military terms (and he's got Moirane and Thom to discuss the politics with him). It's far from impossible he coldly calculates the Light has either lost without an alliance with Tuon, or far more interestingly, that the only way to avoid the Seanchan clashing with the Light, he must convince the Empress to give her Prince of Ravens the command of her armies for Tarmon Gai'don (in a mirror/parallel of Barid Bel Medar's betrayal... Mat would do this to serve the Light, but that wouldn't sit well with Egwene... possibly not even with Rand though that's less sure. I guess this could be the whole "I would never betray you" comment from Mat's PS trip. Not the Shadow... Mat resurfacing at the head of the Seanchan armies when the Seanchan are still enemies) and it's Mat who will have these armies fight the Shadow, not the Light. That would be a way in wich the alliance between the Seanchan and the rest only comes once the LB is well under way and the strength of the Shadow leaves them no other options but to unite.

An interesting question is whether Mat will have lost the Band of the Red Hand in Caemlyn or not (or rather to what extent). In the TW, their forerunner all perished to buy time for the population of Manetheren to flee the Shadow. I could see Talmanes doing this if he sees they have no hope of winning that battle (interesting too that with the recent merger, he's now one of Elayne's lords... the Band is definitely Elayne's "Severed Hand, not hers". A kind of replay of Manetheren's fall is certainly not impossible. We can't know for sure the Light will hear of the fall of Caemlyn before returning, Elayne may face a losing battle on her return (could she pull another heroic stunt and Travel into the occupied palace, for instance to insure her ter'angreal collection don't fall in the Shadow's hands... there may be developments at Merrilor to justify something like this... and Elayne "can't die".).

Moiraine? *shrugs*. It depends on too many factors. For all we know, Mat's party returning from Ghenjei might reach Caemlyn after Merrilor (the timeline is so vague, all options are possible.. before, during, after). The timeline is going to massively affect the options for Moiraine's next move. She could stay with Mat until he returns to Rand, she could leave if Rand's location is known. She could also decide to go to Egwene in Tar Valon (where if things went wrong at Merrilor, she might be extremely useful, if only to remind Egwene of what she did herself, what she called "remembering how to control saidar" - a comment which had quite puzzled Egwene at the time).

What second attack on TV are we speaking of?

Jordan got us fooled, convincing most of us the dream of the Seanchan attack and the dream with the Seanchan woman were linked. They were not. In the second dream, the one she interrupted, Egwene is obviously in trouble or unable to see the light at the end of a tunnel, but it doesn't necessarily foreshadows an attack.

In KOD, the Seanchan military planned two attacks. There were two maps. One of them was Tar Valon, we don't know for sure what the second one was, but it's a good bet it was Caemlyn/the BT. I doubt the meant to hit TV a second time, even with Travelling.



She doubted his sanity during and after their meeting remember.

Egwene hasn't yet met anyone who could convince her Rand is (now again) quite sane. She didn't know the man she met wasn't the man she's heard all those disturbing reports about.

Min, Cadsuane, Tam, the Borderlands rulers are some of those people who know better. None of these people will meet Egwene before Merrilor, presumably.