Unlike you, I do think another Fateful Concord is coming (though I definitely think it will be resolved before TG). Egwene's moves in ToM are an unconscious prelude to this, IMO. The Wise Ones seem to agree with her take on things (and the revelation of her Dream might cement their belief), and the Sea Folk seem far more likely to see alliance with her as much more profitable, at this point.

One major reason I think a standoff between Rand and the female channelers is coming is that in some ways, Rand's actions now are a kind of second chance for LTT. The last time, LTT got frustrated with the objections of the women and in desperation, went without them to SG. That nearly destroyed the world and only produced a stop-gap solution. Such a move isn't an option this time around.

For another, a major theme that needs resolution is that men and women need to work together to stop the DO. While that has begun to happen sporadically, it hasn't happened systematically. And Rand and Egwene have been set up as parallel figures too well, their oil and water relationship developed for too long, for me to believe that the resolution of this issue doesn't lie at Egwene and Rand having to make up. They need to overcome their biases and work together, and I don't think that will start as soon as Merrilor.

As for Merillor, I think Rand will be in for a rude shock. He played Egwene so she would gather all the armies of the world so he could propose his terms to them (likely some version of the "Dragon's Peace" Aviendha saw). Egwene doesn't realize she has been played, but has unknowingly made a more critical alliance that will put the spanner in Rand's wheels. Add in Rand's likely demand for peace with the Seanchan to Egwene's Dream (whether she interpreted it correctly is meaningless at this point. She believes she has, and the Wise Ones will likely back her up), and I think Rand may find that too many leaders and female channelers side with Egwene on both issues.

I definitely think it highly unlikely that the breaking of the Seals and the planned start to TG Rand envisions is going to happen at Merillor. For one thing, its too early in aMoL. For another, the Seanchan attack on the Tower, Demandred's invasion of Caemlyn and the Black Tower problem are all likely to reach a head very very soon. They may well disrupt the discussion, with the combined forces splitting up to rush to the defense of Tar Valon and Caemlyn.

Its far more likely that Merillor is a "rad herring" of sorts. The great "council of the Light" will instead be two divided camps that only agree on a temporary truce till the threats from the Shadow and the Seanchan are taken care of. A truly unified alliance of the Light will only come after some severe setbacks in the first part of aMoL, IMO.