If you're going to ignore direct quotes, then we may as well stop right now... - Edit 1
Before modification by Shannow at 06/02/2011 08:44:33 PM
At the beginning of each quoted paragraph, you put "quote" within brackets <> and finish the paragraph with "/quote" within similar brackets.
Thanks.
Ahhh... I get your problem now.
You're referring to Leanne's quote where she says even if they're Healed to half their former strength, most women would still be stronger than them. This certainly does imply that Daigian is half as strong as the average AS.
But I always discounted that statement in light of what RJ later said about the bell curve and the 37.5%.
Great. So we're ignoring direct quotes now. You can't just ignore this quote. It is clear as daylight. It is one thing if you tell me that you have a different interpretation of a quote, but if you're just going to flatly ignore quotes because it doesn't fit with your model, well, then I am wasting my time here.
This would be my AS list:
Daigian (barely AS): 30
Entry level AS: 35
Average AS: 45
Moiraine: 55
I always take the authors quotes outside the books to be superior to individual quotes within the books.
RJ wrote the scene where Leane gives her strength description. And it ties in perfectly with Siuan saying that now she struggles to lift her own weight, while before she could lift three times her own weight.
If you put Dagian at 30, then the average Aes Sedai is at 60, and Moiraine is at 90. This is clearly not the case, so there goes that theory.
I don't say I don't know why. The reason is that the AS are not a truly random sample. I point out to you the absolutely incontrovertible evidence of the 1000 women who became Novices under Egwene. They are skewed towards weakness too. Explain that to me if the Aes Sedai are a truly random sample.
If they were skewed towards the STRONGER side then it would support your point, but the skewing to the weaker side supports the fact that people who are too weak don't even bother going to the Tower anymore, and that there aren't actually all these strong women waiting out in the countryside to be discovered. They did pick up a bunch of women, and instead of being mostly stronger than the average Aes Sedai, they turned out to be too weak to even qualify.
Then explain the thousand novices, and explain the fact that 1000 years ago, 50 women were stronger than Moiraine.
Simple. In the age of Legends 3% of people could channel. Today it is 1%. Gradually, the number of channelers is decreasing. In all strength categories. The fact that there are so few above Moiraine, proves that they were never very numerous in the first place. As the channeling population shrinks, the outliers will start disappearing first.
There are definitely more women weaker than Moiraine than stronger. In a channeling population of about 250K though, there will indeed be thousands of Moiraine level women.
Sure. But the average won't change. For every additional Moiraine level woman found, there will be 10 Liandrin level women, maintaining the average in roughly the same place.
I can prove why. The Aes Sedai are a non random sample by virtue of their age restrictions, the restriction based on desire to be AS, and the restriction based on sending away women who don't cope with their training.
Non random by social class, willpower etc., but none of these are linked to strength. Strength is randomly distributed among all social classes, women of all personalities and levels of desire to succeed.
You fail to address my point about the 1000 novices. Showing to me that you don't have any reasoning at all, just stubborn insistence that you're right.
See above. I have addressed it.
That's like saying that aliens MUST be out in space because they clearly aren't here on earth.
By the very definition of aliens, they MUST be in space. You should have gone for a better analogy than that!
There you do the same thing again. Assuming that aliens exist, because it fits your theory. Therefore, if aliens aren't on earth, they must be out in space. If the strong women aren't in the Tower, they must be out in the countryside.
You have not proven that there ARE any aliens, anymore than you've proven that there are these hordes of strong women out there.
To pull it all together: You say that there are more women stronger than Moiraine out there, undiscovered, than there are weak women out there, undiscovered. You say the reason they are undiscovered is not clear, but it must be so if your Bell Curve is to hold water.
Nope. I say there are more women stronger than the average AS out there undiscovered than women who're weaker than the average AS. And they're undiscovered because the AS actually don't discover women who can channel. They wait for them to come to Tar Valon.
Nope. I say there are more women stronger than the average AS out there undiscovered than women who're weaker than the average AS. And they're undiscovered because the AS actually don't discover women who can channel. They wait for them to come to Tar Valon.
No, you're not getting it. If you put Moiraine around the 50% or 55% mark, then it means there must be an overwhelming number of women ABOVE Moiraine out there - far more than there are women below her out there - to balance out all the weaker women that have been found so far, plus the 37.5% of ALL women who don't qualify to become Aes Sedai.
Else Moiraine cannot be so close to the average.
I say, your Bell Curve just doesn't hold water.
Then you're saying RJ was wrong about his own creation. Not an argument that makes any sense.
Yes, that's what I've been saying. RJ didn't understand the implications of idly referring to it as a Bell Curve in a casual interview, instead of just saying the channeling population distribution. Because the entire point of my argument is that a Bell Curve is completely inconsistent with the evidence.