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Sorry, but here your entire Bell Curve goes up in smoke... Shannow Send a noteboard - 06/02/2011 01:13:15 PM
Your arbitrary scale making Nynaeve only an 85 is laughable to begin with, and assuming the strongest AS are maybe in the 30s when the Author himself speaks of a bell curve distribution is even more astounding. The quotes and scales work just as easily and map better to a Bell Curve if you have

Lanfear: 100
Cyndane/Aliva:98
Graendal/Sharina: 97
Nynaeve: 96
Semirhage: 95
Mesaana:94
Moghedien: 88
Egwene: 80
Bode: 75
Cadsuane:65
Moiraine: 45
Verin: 30
Daigian:15
Morgase: 1

Suddenly you you start seeing a mass of women in the range between Cadsuane and say Verin (the bulk of where a Bell Curve average would fall) then a tapering off at the weaker end of the BC as you get down toward Daigian and even more so as you head down to Morgase.

on RJs scale that would make Level 21 Semirhage and up, Moghedien and Mesaana at level 20, Egwene 19, Bode 18, Cadsuane 17, Moiraine would probably be the lower end of 15 and Verin 12 and Daigian the bottom part of level 9, probably Daigian is about 2x Sorilea who would be like a level 4 or 5.

RJ also claimed that there were "several levels" of male strength above the 21 female levels ... so Rand on this scale would be something like a 125 ... give women a 25% dexterity bonus to compensate for effectiveness and suddenly you have Nynaeve at the same effective level as someone such as Sammael and Graendal effectively the same as a Demandred.

Egwene would be about 80% as effectively strong as Rand in ultimate Potential, but only have about 60% of his raw strength.

When she met up with him in TSR she was probably around a 48 (slightly stronger than Moiraine) to his 110 in Raw terms (he was already in FS male range) ... Elayne was significantly weaker than Egwene when this event took place so she was likely no more than a 25 ... and they were not linked ... it's no wonder they felt like kittens being manhandled and it would explain why Egwene thinks Nynaeve could come close to the effects she was seeing from Rand ... at this point Nynaeve was a mid-80s level and with a dexterity bonus would have been close to Rand on an Effective level, Further, it explains why Lanfear was MORE effective than Rand when he dueled her a book later. He still had room to grown and she was at maximum effective strength, thus he was dueling someone stronger ... and losing, based on that and a huge gap in skill.

It also explains how Egwene can be as strong as Melaine and Amys combined yet still have a significant gap up to Nynaeve and why Reanne would have considered Alivia "considerably" stronger than Nynaeve in POD ... Nynaeve at 90% of her potential would feel significantly weaker than Alivia to a woman who's total strength is around a 40 ... the difference between Alivia and Nynave would be something like 25% of Reanne's total strength, where from Alivia's view point Nynaeve is only about 10% weaker than her and still has room to grow.

And it illustrates the authors comment that Egwene was a step down from the Forsaken ... on your scale she's like 5 steps down.


On the Bell Curve, the average strength woman would be on 50. That puts the average strength woman at slightly above Moiraine's 45 on your list.

And because it's a Bell Curve, it means that the majority of women fall around Moiraine's level in strength, with AS MANY above her as below her.

So, to put it simply, there should be as many women between Moiraine and Moghedien as there are between Moiraine and Dagian.

In fact, because Moirane is slighly BELOW 50 on your list, there should be MORE women between Moiraine and Moghedien than there are between Moiraine and Dagian.

Only then would your version of the Bell Curve make sense.

Unfortunately, the observational evidence points to something far different. Among all the Aes Sedai, all the Aiel Wise Ones and all the Sea Folk,, we see that the VAST MAJORITY of women fall below Moiraine in strength. In fact, among ALL Aes Sedai, only a handful are as strong as Moiraine, and only the wondergirls and Cadsuane are stronger.

The picture that emerges is one of Moiraine being FAR stronger than the average woman, with about 90% or more of channelers falling BELOW her. This puts her at almost two standard deviations above the mean.

Therefore, if you want to formulate a true Bell Curve, then 50 should be around the strength of the average Aes Sedai, with Moiraine being a 75 or more. Meaning that Moiraine is 75% as strong as Lanfear.

That demonstrates quite clearly the absurdity of trying to fit the observed channeling strength distribution into a normal Bell Curve.


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Proof that Asmodean's effective One Power strength is greater than Moghedien's... - 03/02/2011 03:22:42 PM 2298 Views
Huh? - 03/02/2011 04:08:29 PM 1237 Views
Why do you deliberately misquote the text? - 03/02/2011 04:12:50 PM 1254 Views
You're deliberately being obtuse... as usual... - 03/02/2011 10:07:09 PM 1188 Views
Right. So Egwene can shield someone of Egwene's own strength, plus Elayne, AND weave a dozen flows.. - 03/02/2011 10:26:27 PM 1190 Views
- 03/02/2011 10:46:40 PM 1060 Views
No. Egwene is very close to her full potential at the time... - 03/02/2011 11:44:20 PM 1164 Views
Bullshit... - 04/02/2011 12:39:42 AM 1037 Views
Unbiased view... - 04/02/2011 01:46:40 AM 1174 Views
The WoT Board in a nutshell. *NM* - 04/02/2011 02:34:32 AM 561 Views
Yeah, thats unbiased... *NM* - 04/02/2011 05:23:17 PM 547 Views
Don't agree - 04/02/2011 08:30:02 AM 1152 Views
Fair comment, but my question then is: - 04/02/2011 11:26:25 AM 1036 Views
I think the WO and Moiraine also Force Egwene as they know what's coming and need her - 04/02/2011 03:55:46 PM 1041 Views
It is specifically stated that Egwene was forced by the rigours of the damane training... - 04/02/2011 05:15:20 PM 1047 Views
Egwene has been continually forced... - 04/02/2011 06:02:08 PM 983 Views
The direct quotes contradict you... - 04/02/2011 06:23:03 PM 1084 Views
actually the quote substantiates that Egwene is only slightly stronger than Moiraine in TSR - 04/02/2011 07:51:10 PM 1091 Views
here ya go they were all Forced - 04/02/2011 07:59:40 PM 957 Views
Nope... - 04/02/2011 08:23:00 PM 1041 Views
I think you may have misused the term - RJ meant 'effective' to mean something a bit different. - 03/02/2011 04:40:41 PM 1212 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 05:30:15 PM 1131 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 05:45:30 PM 1130 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 06:31:34 PM 1054 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 07:06:50 PM 1080 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 07:17:25 PM 1066 Views
We still don't know who is effectively stronger, and not sure if Asmo was equal to Rand by the end. - 03/02/2011 06:58:14 PM 888 Views
See my post above, I would say Asmo is Weaker than Moggy... *NM* - 03/02/2011 07:10:07 PM 570 Views
I'm not certain either way. I think it all depends on the terms being used. - 03/02/2011 07:22:01 PM 1111 Views
Effective strength means who can make the bigger fireball, the stronger shield, the thicker balefire - 03/02/2011 07:42:17 PM 958 Views
I still hold to the point that your analogy is false. - 04/02/2011 04:20:05 PM 1019 Views
My impression of your view, in general, is that... - 03/02/2011 07:33:37 PM 989 Views
How... - 03/02/2011 10:15:34 PM 942 Views
If Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did to them, then I rest my case... - 03/02/2011 10:36:46 PM 1100 Views
Re: If Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did to them, then I rest my case... - 03/02/2011 10:50:57 PM 1056 Views
Got you now... - 03/02/2011 11:32:49 PM 1014 Views
You're clearly delusional... - 04/02/2011 12:59:26 AM 1018 Views
You sound ridiculous - 04/02/2011 02:05:18 AM 1041 Views
Re: You sound ridiculous - 04/02/2011 02:23:50 AM 1098 Views
Ok... - 04/02/2011 04:13:34 PM 965 Views
Elayne is not stronger than most AS at this point in the books - 04/02/2011 08:14:41 PM 995 Views
Re: How... - 04/02/2011 08:34:21 AM 1158 Views
They're very close now... - 04/02/2011 05:46:48 PM 1119 Views
That is unfortunately not true... - 04/02/2011 06:02:34 PM 1107 Views
It is... - 04/02/2011 06:05:05 PM 954 Views
Re: It is... - 04/02/2011 06:31:32 PM 1207 Views
Yup... - 04/02/2011 08:20:33 PM 980 Views
Semirhage hated Lanfear, but dared not act against her strength... - 04/02/2011 08:29:24 PM 1371 Views
yet Graendal showed a lot of respect for Semirhage ... even assumed she was the most - 04/02/2011 08:53:05 PM 1050 Views
Graendal on Semirhage and Demandred... - 04/02/2011 09:23:50 PM 1310 Views
No - 04/02/2011 11:10:00 PM 1089 Views
CLAPS *NM* - 05/02/2011 05:15:21 AM 599 Views
We will just have to disagree on this one... - 05/02/2011 06:57:36 AM 972 Views
Indeed - 05/02/2011 07:38:10 AM 972 Views
I agree with you ... especially abou the perpective issue - 05/02/2011 03:00:58 PM 1067 Views
I agree with you here - 04/02/2011 08:19:35 PM 979 Views
I don't think that's true.. - 04/02/2011 08:21:38 PM 921 Views
Considering that Asmodean and Rand were using a sa'angreal... - 04/02/2011 04:55:03 AM 1194 Views
I think this is a no brainer - 04/02/2011 08:22:00 AM 1137 Views
The nice fact which is proven is the magnitude of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage... - 04/02/2011 11:32:00 AM 960 Views
Nynaeve could be at 90% or 80% when she faced Moghedien we have no way of measuring that - 04/02/2011 08:42:03 PM 957 Views
Disagree... - 04/02/2011 08:51:55 PM 1039 Views
spin it all you like... I'm tired of this arument and your creative quoting. - 04/02/2011 08:56:14 PM 934 Views
The creative quoter is Fionwe, not me. You quote correctly, but your interpretations are way off... - 04/02/2011 09:05:43 PM 911 Views
Nynaeve has grown in strength, but she started nearly as strong as Moiraine! - 05/02/2011 05:35:05 AM 932 Views
Starting out at Moiraine's strength meant starting out at barely 30% of her full potential... - 05/02/2011 07:05:46 AM 986 Views
Nynaeve's strength - 05/02/2011 07:49:07 AM 1029 Views
Agree, Egwene has never been as strong as Nynaeve at any stage. *NM* - 05/02/2011 03:03:25 PM 659 Views
I disagree that Moiraine is 30% of Nynaeve. Much closer to 50% of Nynaeve. EDIT - 05/02/2011 03:02:06 PM 1119 Views
Minor quibbles aside... - 05/02/2011 04:05:30 PM 1109 Views
Agreed, the exact numbers are arbitrary, I place Egwene a tad higher than you ... EDIT - 05/02/2011 04:30:00 PM 926 Views
Re: Agreed, the exact numbers are arbitrary, I place Egwene a tad higher than you ... EDIT - 05/02/2011 06:09:41 PM 1061 Views
shrugs - 05/02/2011 06:46:02 PM 985 Views
Re: shrugs - 05/02/2011 08:03:37 PM 1012 Views
I don't recall the Merise quote you are refering too and they have not been together in the series - 05/02/2011 09:20:56 PM 914 Views
I'm sorry, I meant the glossary entry... - 05/02/2011 10:29:46 PM 947 Views
Thanks for clarifying - 05/02/2011 11:12:19 PM 899 Views
Re: Thanks for clarifying - 06/02/2011 12:42:51 AM 951 Views
fair enough ... I can agree to Cadsuane and Bode both being 70 with Egwene and co at 80 *NM* - 06/02/2011 04:29:49 AM 514 Views
Cool! *NM* - 06/02/2011 04:18:52 PM 547 Views
Sorry, but here your entire Bell Curve goes up in smoke... - 06/02/2011 01:13:15 PM 915 Views
In fact, Moiraine is even STRONGER than I postulated in the above post... - 06/02/2011 01:22:11 PM 1305 Views
well... - 06/02/2011 02:11:02 PM 1042 Views
Only a separate Bell Curve for the Age of Legends - when the average strength was higher - will work - 06/02/2011 03:29:49 PM 961 Views
Or, you know, the Aes Sedai aren't a representative sample... *NM* - 06/02/2011 04:19:22 PM 669 Views
I don't think Strength was higher in the AOL I think there were just more channelers - 06/02/2011 04:50:42 PM 1015 Views
Yup. - 06/02/2011 05:30:54 PM 925 Views
Trivial - 06/02/2011 06:10:55 PM 946 Views
Uhhh... no... - 06/02/2011 04:18:19 PM 849 Views
Read these facts slowly, maybe you will grasp the implication then... - 06/02/2011 04:41:02 PM 1015 Views
you are missing the fact that women like Sharina have no interest in the Tower - 06/02/2011 05:05:10 PM 1026 Views
You equate random exclusions with the deliberate block exclusion of 37.5% weakest women... - 06/02/2011 05:41:47 PM 975 Views
wrong - 06/02/2011 06:08:20 PM 1060 Views
That is weak logic in the extreme... - 06/02/2011 06:16:46 PM 949 Views
what I'm saying is that a representative sample of the entire population - 06/02/2011 06:40:51 PM 994 Views
Yes. *NM* - 06/02/2011 06:47:59 PM 612 Views
Yes. *NM* - 06/02/2011 06:48:00 PM 529 Views
But you don't prove that the undiscovered women are stronger. They may well be weaker... - 06/02/2011 07:26:27 PM 846 Views
Amys is far from the strongest WO! - 06/02/2011 07:37:14 PM 1172 Views
Explain the 1000 women they found in Murandy then... - 06/02/2011 06:26:46 PM 941 Views
And a 1000 years ago... - 06/02/2011 06:33:29 PM 976 Views
The only implication I grasped is that you don't grasp math... - 06/02/2011 06:21:12 PM 1059 Views
Circular reasoning... - 06/02/2011 07:03:53 PM 1001 Views
Agreed. - 04/02/2011 04:32:05 PM 1055 Views
Agree. *NM* - 04/02/2011 05:49:05 PM 613 Views
agreed *NM* - 04/02/2011 08:27:22 PM 628 Views

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