Ah fine then. It merely makes Egwene's plan more badly thought out, though. She would have the AS retire in the Kin around the same age they do now, even with evidence they are barely in their middle-age.

Mind you, this is very "White Tower" : I will change the whole system and make you forswear the Oaths when you go in retirement, but you will still go in retirement around the age you're used to go in retirement. This also shows Egwene for her good intentions and her desire to change things she's stil just 18 yo.o and can be a bit naive at times. This was one of her personal "plans", not one she devised with Siuan.



Well, this is a gamble taken on what happened to Siuan and Leane. If it doesn't work, the first sisters unbound will die in a few decades, and a new decision would have to be made. It probably isn't the case. This appears to be a delayed death sentence: a bound AS criminal had half her remaining lifespan to amend herself and seek redemption and release from the Binder. If she didn't demonstate she can be trusted to follow the law/rules again without being bound to do so, then she condemned herself to death. I don't think it would have fitted the thinking of the AOL so well to cut by half the life of a criminal who needed only a few years of Binding to amend her way and return to normal AS life.



Precisely, but the Aes Sedai are blind to this. Egwene spoke from the outsider perspective on this to Siuan once, who saw nothing of value or logical in Egwene's argument and hasten to convince her of the WT orthodox view about the Oaths. Egwene has adopted this vision now, it will be very hard to make her change her mind on it, and she has the whole establishment firmly behind her in this.

The Seanchan attack hasn't shaken the WT perspective that much. Actually, after the Seanchan attack where they killed as much as they captured, most sisters will not even need to reason to instinctively feel they are in danger for the lives whenever the Seanchan are involved, so the Third Oath will stop barely hinder them.. just the most shy of sisters, the sort more likely to flee to hide than fight anyway, not that there must be tons of those who passed the test for the shawl. This won't hinder the sistersin the fight the Shadow in the LB either. So there's not really any urgency to abandon the third Oath, and once the LB is won, the Oaths will have a purpose. Somehow, the Seanchan must be convinced the WT isn't a threat, that the sisters cannot use the OP to secure kingdoms and fight one another, the way it used to be in Seanchan, that damane are a bigger threat to peace than any AS: right now in Seanchan, there's a OP war going on, if Tuon would only see it. In the Westlands, the channellers have bound themselves against that and have succeeded for 3000 years to avoid war between channellers (all but with the Shadow's), and Egwene is working to unite the female channellers who have not made any such promise not to use the OP as a weapon (and Aviendha is about to reveal to the WO what will happen in the future if they don't give this up, and lead the Aiel to war against the Seanchan... the same will happen to the Windfinders... they'll become the black sheep of the lot if they insist to continue using the OP as a weapon as they see fit, it will eventually undermine their efforts to become a major economical player in the Westlands. People will fear they could be bought to fight for a nation, for the right price. They have done so in Andor already... theorically, what would stop them for doing so in Tear in 300 years, to protect their economical interests there from a takeover by another nation more hostile to the SF, or an emerging non SF nautical power using SF trained AS, let's say?).

If the war against the Seanchan doesn't end post TG, then the WT is in desperate need of allies, and it better act fast and give the nations something so invaluable that they unite with the WT to drive the Seanchan back to sea. That's where the WT has failed the most. The WOS and the TW are way, way in the past, and since then the Tower has let itself become more and more irrelevant in the daily life of nations. OH, they've negotiated peace treaties, and meddled with the rulers, but most of the time no one but the White Tower even understands what went on and what the WT accomplished (eg: one of Morgase's top advisor wasn't even aware of what Elaida and Siuan were doing when they humiliated him, because his raids on the borders made a plan to unify Murandy under a proper King at last fail completely... they rather kept their failure secret and let themselves pass for bullies and men-haters. The WT even passes for what is the real cause behind the War of Hundred Years, with their meddling to stop Hawkwing, whom the people loved (after which they added the first Oath, against lying)

The AS will have to work extremely hard to convince people to trust them, and help them against the Seanchan (maybe, if this isn't solved). I don't think now is a good time to abandon the Oaths, especially not now that the full power of the Aes Sedai is about to be demonstrated on the battelfield. It's after the Trolloc Wars the sisters were forced to introduce the Oath against using the OP as a weapon. The TW didn't make the people more inclined to trust AS, it made them more fearful of their power. With the Asha'man and mix gender work, it's going to be even worse at TG. The people are going to be very happy to let the AS and Asha'man fight the Shadow, then as soon as it's over they are going to remember all this Power is in the hands of channellers, and it's only because they promise not to that they don't use it. Announcing that the Tower renounces the Third and Second Oaths, when it's obvious they intend to join the Aiel WO, Windfinders and Asha'man in a war against the Seachan would horrify the people. All but the nobles and some rulers want this war, because they're afraid to lose their power. The people in general have so far welcomed the Seanchan, their order, safety and prosperity. They consider their lives better now, and even if some find horrific what they do to channellers, they are rather quick so far to forget about it and look the other way. This is the real war the WT has lost: the people in general no longer value them much or trust them much. Announcing they renounce the Oaths, after the demonstration of their power at TG, would mean the end of the White Tower. There would be no way to get back from there, from total war agains the Seanchan. Right now, only the Aiel and SF would support their channellers in this, and perhaps Andor might follow its Queen but that isn't certain. The rest of the world would turn to the Seanchan once the WT renounces the Oaths and start laying waste to the Seanchan provinces. They would all fear which nations to oppose the WT would suffer the same fate next, and would want the Windfinders and WO of the "savage Aiel" (because it's still how they're perceived, and their stunts following Rand has hardly changed this view) deal with, and only the Seanchan offer any solution, with their vast armies and leashed channellers.

The same way, after the War of Shadow, the people were dead afraid of weapons made with the OP (which were no doubt still around and made things even worse during the Breaking), and the Aes Sedai had to formally swear that they'd stop making those.

It's all well and good that Perrin's group start making those weapons again, and Elayne and Mat work to make war even uglier than it used to be, but after TG, the people will fear these weapons.

The first Oath was a bad idea, and is still a bad idea and as the AS forgot its real purpose and started going around it, it made things worse than they used to be, and cemented their reputation for dishonesty and deviousness. That's the one that really ought to go. It defeats the purpose that AS can be trusted.

For the other two Oaths, in the short and mid term, they're very likely more needed than ever. Elayne's escalation is hardly the right solution - she's preparing for a very ugly world war, and doing that might actually be its cause. The Andorans would probably be better off under Seanchan rule than facing the sort of war Elayne is preparing to throw them into after TG. She is also making Andor and its alliance into a large potential threat, economically as well as militarily, to the other nations. She might spark the others to unite, or join the Seanchan, to counter her power. It's worse from the fact she's tied both to the Tower and the Aiel. We've seen in Aviendha's vision where Elayne's current plans, and the Aiel current plans, lead. It's bad, really bad.

The best thing that might happen now is that Egwene manages somehow to put an end to the hostilities with the Seanchan for good, before it comes to a post TG war. Rand enforcing a truce isn't the solution - it will turn into an even uglier conflict after he's gone, a new War of Hundred Years.

It sounds to me like the short term solution is hardly to abandon the Oaths, it's to go on with the alliance of channellers and extend to the Asha'man and Windfinders and WO the adoption of the second and third Oaths. The greatest contribution Rand might still make to the post TG world is to explain the sort of society that emerged in the AOL and managed to make war obsolete as a way to solve conflicts. Even the AOL Aes Sedai, as respected and trusted as they used to be, had to turn to the Binder after the War of Shadow. The WT starts in the post TG in far, far worse position. I doubt it can afford to abandon the Oaths on the Binder in the short term. In tlonger term, the Binder should be returned to something like its original purpose, but that can only happen when channellers are much, much valued and respected than they are now, and for that to happen, they'll have to return to live among the rest of the population and make people benefit from their gifts again. It would take but decades of the AS living among the people, building wonders not for themselves but for everyone, helping with agriculture, and the weather, and trade, rebuild the cities and roads, offering healing at large and so much more they could do if they were Servants of All again in truth, to make themselves invaluable again. They'd do far more for world peace by doing this and refusing their services to nations that go to war then any political scheming and games of influence have ever accomplished. As LTT could perfectly explain to the WT if he's so minded. The WT had it all wrong, it's the masses that abandon them right now and let the Seanchan have their way. It's the masses the WT needed to keep on their side. For 3000 years, the WT has rather sought to control the rulers. If the WT served the people, and going to war meant losing Healing, agricultural help, Travelling, and crippling a nation's trade for the duration of the war and the years it took to pay war repairs, the people would refuse to let their rulers go to war. Incidentally, it wouldn't take that long before the people stop wanting monarchies and seek to have a greater role in the ruling of their nation...

It's one positive way in which Rand could "break the world", by giving enough people and rulers a taste of what the AOL was really like, with democracy, and the channellers serving, with the Aiel a constant symbol of these ideals, and a constant reminder to the Aes Sedai that the most defenseless of all people served them and were their responsabilty, and expected them to embrace these ideals of global peace in their services and their use of the OP.

Once the AS are invaluable once more, and have the masses behind them, then the Oaths on the Binder will become useless for real. But they're at least a few decades from there if not more, realistically. If they can afford to lose the Oaths before the end of the series, it will sound a bit like a fairytale ending, IMO.