Yes, I agree. Except as I see this as "Dark Rand's" future because that future is the direct consequence of "Dark Rand"'s plans.

He planned to enforce peace, to force the Seanchan and nations to agree to a truce that would have solved nothing. He had no plans for the Aiel, except to have them fight as warriors in TG.

This is a future in which Rand survives a while and keeps enforcing his peace, meaning he still acts as a tyrant over the world, try to impose his will.. At his death, all hell breaks loose. Tuon or her successor set to complete the Return. The Aiel launch their war against the Seanchan, so does the alliance centered on Andor, TV etc. If you notice, down the line the Seanchan come to define their Empire as "The Light", meaning the consider the rest as the Shadow...

This is a version of Cadsuane's future where "victory is almost as bad as a defeat" if Rand went to SG as he was.

New Rand has completely different priorities and a completely different perspective on leadership. He has switched from "You will all do as I say" to "This is not my battle. I will guide you, but I have too much to do, so I won't lead it for you." He has given back the leaders their free will, their authority and their responsabilities. He will not try anymore to enforce any peace through tyranny. He no more sees himself as ruler of the world or anything like that. The fact he keeps wearing his humble, Tuatha'an cloak is more than just convenience - it's also a symbol of who he has become. He doesn't want people to see him as a ruler anymore.

As for the Aiel... Old Rand had no plans at all for them, no encouragement for them to ever leave their warrior ways. What will New Rand think of that? How much LTT valued the Da'shain Aiel. A very great deal probably. Don't forget he knows everything there is to know about their powers, their value, their purpose, their happiness in the AOL. How long before he decides that to meet his toh to the Aiel, he should offer them a new purpose, a better purpose then get themselves killed in TG, if they would choose this other path he offers to teach them? I don't think it's a coincidence that the Wheel made Rand spend a few days among the Tuatha'an, who gave him his new cloak. He knows now where they are gathered, he knows what they seek. He will reunite them with the Aiel, soon (when Tuon moves all her armies north, they will be defenseless around Ebou Dar. Rand will save them, or have them saved). I think Rand will teach the Aiel that their AOL services brought them much, much ji - he will tell them (and us, we still don't really know - we just know there's more to it than just singing to crops) why they were so valuable to the world and the Aes Sedai. The Aiel already know it' said they will return to their service to the Aes Sedai one day... I think Aviendha is completely wrong to believe the Aiel were in the Waste to learn to become warriors to atone for their Sin by fighting in TG... That's not why the Columns have made them remember their past. They were to be shaped as warriors so they survived until TG, and become strong enough to face the challenge of returning to the Way for the Last Battle...

Aviendah saw a future where Rand has remained "dark" and this never took place. New Rand will change all that. Aviendha's challenge will be to make the Aiel accept that, because she's seen what will happen to them if they don't.