Not by my reckoning. *Still contains ToM spoilers* - Edit 1
Before modification by Fanatic-Templar at 11/11/2010 04:25:27 AM
1. Graendal gets wind of the fact that Rand is coming to Arad Doman. She starts to make contingency plans - the same plans that she advised Sammael to make for if ever Rand appeared on her doorstep.
We know this was not the case, because when she did learn of Rand finding her, she went for the no-plan hasty escape. She had no contingency for Rand appearing on her doorstep.
2. When Aran'gar arrives at her palace, she takes Delana and teaches her Compulsion.
This is wrong. Graendal has to ask Aran'gar whether Delana knows Compulsion. Clearly, she never taught her. Even more clearly, she did not have this prepared since Aran'gar arrived.
Graendal says she will not risk strength and skill, but Delana has neither, and will only know one advanced weave after some training. Graendal needs Delana for this purpose and starts setting up a proxy, well aware that she is going to throw Delana in front of the first sign of the Dragon Reborn.
This again didn't happen. I won't be so petty as to detract from Sidious' theory just because Graendal didn't speak the words he thought she might use, but I do have to point out that Graendal never planned this, and so never intended to use Delana for this purpose.
3. Rand sends in his messenger and Graendal figures out what is happening. She gets Delana to compel the man, while she and Aran'gar make plans.
Graendal did not figure out what was happening when Ramshalan arrives. She says so herself, admitting that "she'd been played" and that she only figured it out at the last second. She also wasn't making any plans with Aran'gar, obviously.
4. Aran'gar senses saidin, and she and Graendal Travel.They deliberately leave Delana behind to die. Graendal doesn't know that Rand will use balefire, but Aran'gar senses so much saidin that Graendal hopes that Rand will take any evidence of saidar as evidence that she was in the palace when he destroyed it by whatever means.
Obviously Graendal didn't take Aran'gar with her, nor did Aran'gar sensing saidin have anything to do with Graendal's actions.
5. The Compulsion is unravelled, but Graendal and Aran'gar are safe. The reason for Delana tagging along with Aran'gar is revealed, as she is sacrificed to perform a masterful ruse.
Aran'gar is not safe, nor was Delana intended as a ruse or brought for this reason.
He got the major point right - that Delana did the Compulsion, and that Graendal survived. In fact, if the scene had gone as Sidious suggested, I might be happier with it. The way it was written makes little sense.
The end result - Graendal's survival - was correct, but that is not sufficient for me to grant this theory credibility. I will accord him points for guessing that Delana would be sacrificed to cause the vanishes Compulsion, but the core of Sidious' theory was that Graendal survived because she had planned for this. I argued then and would still argue that this is absurd, and the reality agrees: Graendal was caught completely off guard by Rand's attack. Only the use of heretofore unknown True Power abilities (and I don't think we even knew Graendal could access the True Power before Towers of Midnight, I was certainly under the assumption of Moridin's exclusivity.)
Sidious' conclusion was correct, but his reasoning was not, so I cannot agree to validate his theory. Because it was all those who opposed his theory who were correct - Graendal did not anticipate Rand's assault, Graendal did not plan for it. And Graendal would not have survived it if not for abilities that were at the time of the reasoning unknown to us.