Since I agree with your conclusion I'm just going to piggy back on your arguments a bit, if you don't mind.

I suspect everyone but the Greens forbids marriage, but doubt anyone bans sex. Even some Reds are known to have had sex with men, and if THEY can, anyone can. The shrinking ranks of channelers isn't, in itself, indicative either way. Theoretically, unless the Tower is finding every single woman who can channel, or be taught, and unless every single one of them attains the shawl, a Tower wide ban on sex or children would also reduce but not eliminate each generations channelers. That said, if there was an actual RULE in place in some Ajahs I expect something that important to be mentioned early in the debate about whether Aes Sedai should be bearing children to avoid culling channeling out of humanity. We've heard objections voiced, but that's never been one of them, and it would be a dealbreaker for any Ajah with a ban.

Which is seriously messed up if you think about it, but I hadn't much until now. In that sense marrying ones Warder is almost like extended rape, since the wife can compel the husband to do virtually anything, but the husband has no more influence over what the wife does/n't do than she chooses to grant him, when and as long as she chooses. Not exactly a partnership of equals. Makes me really glad none of the main characters who Bonded future spouses have such controls in place, since it would make them very hard to like.

Possibly modern Aes Sedai are idiots; it's pretty clear channelers having kids wasn't a big deal in the AoL, and the potential for abusing power was far greater then. Not that I'm saying you're wrong; there's ample reason to believe modern Aes Sedai are idiots.

We can't know, but it seems likely you're right. Again, Jordan's not obligated to tell us, but if the Oath Rod were known to prevent childbearing I'd EXPECT him to tell us. That's a tremendous sacrifice to ask of any woman, especially a preadolescent girl. If nothing else, at some point I'd expect any author to milk the hell out of the pathos of a dedicated and powerful young Accepted forced to choose between becoming a powerful and influential Aes Sedai vs. bearing children with the man she loves. Incidentally, Nynaeve looks forward to this, even experiences part of a possible life with Lan and their kids during her testing, and she's never been a novice, so I'd also expect her to have been told that to ever rise higher she'd have to forego children. No one seems to think it noteworthy that Elayne Sedai is visibly pregnant either.