While everything's possible, I don't really see "open war with Seanchan" on the agenda. We know that 5-10 years after TG, Tuon will return to Seanchan. This doesn't look to me like the Return plans will survive TG. One way or another, the war will apparently end, even if it ends with a decision to stay apart, the Seanchan preparing to leave (they'll don't have enough ships anymore right now) and the Westlands agreeing not to meddle in Seanchan affairs. I tend to think Tuon's "reconquest" in a decade might be one where she ends slavery and undo the traditions of Luthair, however. I get the feeling the damane will be freed, but many of the sul'dam will remain Seanchan soldiers. Unleashed soldiers.

And open war with the Seanchan would mean abandonning the third oath to have a chance to win, and the AS can't do that. Abandonning the binder, maybe (though it sounds unlikely at this point) but the oath itself? No. Open war with the Seanchan would most likely mean the men won't agree to swear the Oaths, which mean the two organizations can't merge.

200,000 channellers seems a lot, when there's only 15,000 per million people with the ability nowadays. I frankly don't see the recruiting reaching those numbers, especially not in the generations after TG (Min's recent viewings suggest an horrific death toll in TG). This isn't the AOL, and this isn't Seanchan with its compulsory tests either. The nations would fear the Tower becoming so powerful. If it grows too fast, many nations will turn into new Amadicias and Tear.

With TG, the Tower has a chance to turn the tide. It's a massive opportunity to show the value of the channellers. Egwene/Logain mustn't screw it up by getting overambitious.

There's no way the Tower could handle that many novices soon anyway, not with around 700 hundred trained Aes Sedai only (and how many will survive TG?, when most sisters will be on the frontline? There may be a couple hundred surviving AS and Asha'man on the whole after TG....

And mentalities have to change massively before Egwene can launch any big campaign of recruting, and that won't happen overnight. The reason the ability just slowly dwindled rather than becoming extinct is because a) male learners were never found and removed from the genetic pool, and b) the Tower recruited only a very small percentage of female learners in each generation, but most often the most Talented/gifted, sadly. Now that the male learners are found, and the novice book is open at large, the Tower needs to focus on a complete overall of its mentality/philosophy and customs. A much greater priority than massive recruiting is to come to an alliance/compact between Windfinders, Wise Ones, Kin, Asha'man and Aes Sedai, and to find ways to make it work, practically. Disunity and antipathies between these groups is a far more pressing threat to peace after TG than the Seanchan Empire. The Sea Folk have dreams of economic hegemony, and even as the world spirals toward TG, they're busy setting up this hegemony post TG, as this is presently how they interpret their prophecies...

The Tower needs to face the fact too that right now the WO serve the Aiel and the Windfinders serve the Sea Folk, and if these people come out of their isolation, the balance between them and the Westland nations will be totally upset. The Windfinders are about to know as much as the AS about the OP, and they you can be sure that if things won't change and no alliance is made, within a few decades the Sea Folk would be way, way ahead of everyone else. If the Aes Sedai and Asha'man don't re integrate the nations' life soon - if they don't go serve in their own nation or that of their choice, the nations will turn to the Sea Folk, for those services, and the Sea Folk will be more than happy to sell them those services. Already, they're the ones who can offer for a price a perfect summer for the crops, and it's only a matter of time before a Windfinder could offer Travelling, and Sea Folk designed ter'angreal. Aes Sedai shiver at the idea of trading (their AOL counterpart would laugh at that, their world was full of their products and services!!!), but the Sea Folk won't. It won't matter how big the Tower is then, it will have made itself irrelevant. Integrating SF, WO, Asha'man is the top priority, and then re integrating the nations. Another priority is to establish what channellers wont do, what services they will all refuse to provide and agree to declare rogue any channeller who does. "Traditions" are not enough, as we've seen with the Windfinders and WO. Sooner or later, they don't hold - and there's nobody above the channellers to stop it. Aiel clans have already fought each other with the OP, the Windfinders have used the OP in war. The military uses of the OP need to be banned post TG - essentially the three oaths have to be enforced (though "except DF and Shadowspawn" should be changed for "rogue channellers" and channellers who declare war on the "Guild", as would be the case with a second Seanchan attempt at conquest, etc.) - and this ban enforced. It could be fairly delicate to negotiate, as if one group refuses - for instance the Asha'man, it's back to the days of the founding of the Tower, when dissident Ajahs who refuse the compact were eradicated.



But their percentage of channellers, like that of the SF, must be significantly higher than that in most of the Westlands' (and Seanchan), however (except isolated areas like the TR, where no female learner has joined the Tower in many generations). WO and Windfinders have children. All they've lost in comparison to the AOL stats is male sparkers.

In the Westlands, the Tower has removed systematically from the genetic pool since the Breaking most female sparkers, and all male sparkers, and a (small, but only relatively small) percentage of the female learners (and with them, many of the rarer inborn Talents might have disappeared, as those who make the shawl are too often the most gifted).

The incidence of the ability in the Westlands should be nowhere close that among Aiel or Sea Folk. Not anymore, not after 3000 years of Aes Sedai not having children, though the fall from grace of the Tower since Hawkwing (with its dwindling number of women seeking to become AS, which is unrelated to the fact female sparkers have become excedingly rare as they've been culled out) has probably started to reverse the situation.