At Theoryland a better scan of the ToM cover was posted in a thread [link below].

If Mat is actually the man in the middle (and not the man on the right), it seems as if he is wearing a red bandage around his head, which might extend over his left eye.


The red spear-of-the-dragon style head-band Sweet had given Perrin previously and Mat here is apparently one of the mistakes Harriet has asked Sweet to correct on the cover (but they're not sure they're gonna go with this painting/scene at all). This should have been Mat's classic hat. Another acknowledged mistake is apparently depicting Jain as much younger than he is. The triangle on the door is also drawn upside down from Olver's instructions. The Tower shouldn't be in the woods either, Mat and Perrin both saw it in the middle of a field.

So according to Sweet, Noal is obviously a Forsaken who's now shed his mask of mirrors, and he's misled Mat (who has taken to wear a spear-of-the-dragon head-band in mockery of Elayne's and Aviendha's adoption), and Thom to the wrong Tower, and now he's drawing the symbol the wrong way to convince the other two they can't either and to give up.