If what you say is true, then Carl's character underwent a transformation somewhere in the second half of the season, away from the boy that saved Tyreese and his group, that gave Michonne a chance, and recognized Rick's failures. Away from that, and toward what? A boy that suddenly believes his father's way of doing things, pushing people away, and generally being "hard" is the solution? I don't buy it. That's too rapid a change with too little warning.
Rick giving up Michonne and the loss of Merle would have been the triggers. That would have been what got him thinking about it. The show's perspective from the very episode where the Governor proposed the peace terms made it clear that this was not an acceptable choice, by having him reveal to his underlings that he had no intention of keeping up his end. So the show always considered the choice to be a wrong one, and Rick's revelation of his error to the group, and how it cost them Merle (Carl might not have had as negative a perspective on Merle, knowing him from the quarry camp, when he would have been at his most charming & ingratiating if he really had been intending to rob them, and then seeing him return to save Rick outside the prison; from a boy's perspective, this gun-weilding, cool-talking badass might have actually been admirable), would have been the thing to get him to start considering, especially with the renunciation of the Ricktatorship. While Rick probably meant for the adults to start thinking critically about courses of action, he probably did not mean it for Carl, upon whom he still considers his parental authority to be paramount. Carl, on the other hand, has been taking a more adult role and would naturally include himself among those given permission to make up their own minds. His sudden frustration at yet another rear-guard role (which he has been doing all season) strongly implies that is exactly what his mindset was. He was questioning his father's actions, but came to the wrong conclusions. Or his gunning down the Woodbury kid inspired him to come to those conclusions as a rationalization of his own action.
From my perspective, Carl this season hasn't been an impetuous boy railing against authorities and adults for failing to give him more leeway and responsibility. I see him as being among the brightest and best of the prison group, someone that could very well be one of their top fighters and protectors, if not for his age. And he recognized it, and it stung, and yet he did his duties despite that, making him all the more impressive. So I fundamentally disagree with your assessment of the scene where Carl shot the kid. If you don't approach it with the perspective that Carl is hungry for power or for an outlet for his frustration, then you're left with two choices. Either Carl did it because he's sadistic and evil, a position I don't think anyone could support, or he did it because he felt threatened. Perhaps it was merely just instinct, and Carl has learned to trust his instincts after months of living on the verge of death. Whatever the case, I'm willing to have faith in him, certainly more than in Herschel or Rick.
Oh, sure. I'm just saying he's not at the right place yet. There's potential, but he still has some moral growth yet.
But those are just my opinions based on my understanding of the characters. You'll no doubt be proven right because you take into account the structure and nature of the show, and how such stories are told in general. But I don't like Chekhov's guns,
Me either. I prefer things to develop organically out of choices character might make. On the other hand, that approach is kind of fallacious, because people don't really behave predictably, or for rational reasons. That's why I reject the economic theory of history. However, stories are artificial and the current fashion is for serialized, character-driven shows to make their characters operate in such a fashion.
and I don't like characters whose arcs exist solely to reflect on another character. If that's what happens, hopefully the Walking Dead will be able to fool me into believing that there is a natural and logical progression to this, because I find thinking in the terms you described to make things hopelessly dull and pointless. I'd much rather Carl find his own way and be dealt with in a manner entirely unrelated to Rick, while his father deals with the increasing pressures and challenges of leading a larger group. Surely those problems will merit some character development for him as well.
I also agree that aside from Rick, he is the mostly likely character to be developed in his own right. I am not saying that Glenn, Herschel et al are not fully developed or realized characters, just that the show is focussing on Rick and his evolution from a representative of society (that is what policeman means - it comes from the root "polis" where we get so many terms used to refer to trappings of civilized society: metropolis, politics, policy, polity, etc) and tearing him to demonstrate the effect the new world has on a survivor. As a result, we only get to see those other characters as they intersect with Rick. Carl and how he develops with Rick are compatible with that story-telling agenda, so he is likely to be fully realized. In fact, my point was, Carl's development IS important, that's why they had him gun down a guy in a episode where the characters' redemption comes from extending aid and mercy: it's not a Chekhov's gun, implying he's doomed; rather, it's a sneak peak at the story ahead, that Rick/Carl will have to work on this problem. Rick has reached a balance between survival-prioritization and society-acceptance, and now he has to help Carl work on achieving the same thing, hopefully with a lower bodycount than Rick needed.