It appears this was never Jacob's cabin in the first place. It seems MiB (appearing as Horace) built this cabin in the first place to fool Jacob's people.

It's hard to be sure because the writers for good reasons keep us in the dark about Jacob's real motivations, exact nature and powers until the finale, but it seems that the real interaction between Jacob and the "Others" (via Ricardo) happened quite long ago and in recent times it was rather MiB pretending to be Jacob who was pulling their strings, especially those of Locke and Ben.



He's one of the great "villains" in recent pop fiction. Before he died, I mean. Locke was very grey: obsessive, naive, making extremely dubious moves - a great incarnation of "Hell is paved with good intentions".

If anyone is going to redeem himself, I think it may be the other great naive and (dark) grey character: Benjamin.



MiB as Christian must have told her.



We will know in time if being "touched" by MiB is a one-way trip or someone can turn back. There are clues that letting him talk you into something is really bad and there's no way back - but we'll see. Before the end either Sayid will turn on MiB, or it's Claire who will be incapable not to turn on the candidates. It seems Sayid has betrayed Mib about Desmond, but has no intent of turning against him: he wants his reward. Claire might influence how Sawyer's group deal with Widmore (I mean, Smokey might influence them using Claire, if he can communicate with her). She may be turned into MiB's weapon near Widmore, when he realises she's gone to him with the others.



Another whose motivations are most unclear...

There are two types of "bad guys" so far. One type is MiB inspired in a misguided near-religious way, like Locke and Benjamin who do everything "the Island" tell them, not realising it's not the Island inspiring them but the evil it is the cork for.

The other type is the hubristic scientist or man of power. They see the island and its power as a scientific puzzle, or as a power to master. Some of these people are plain bad (perhaps...), some of them are just very dangerous fools, like Dharma, Daniel Farraday and his mom.

Is Widmore really the second type? Does he really want to master the Island's power, wrestle it from Jacob? What this what his competition with Ben was really about or did they just disagreed on how to serve the Island. Is Widmore really serving Jacob or is it more that he serve neither MiB nor Jacob and only himself?

Probably the last case, but we'll see. Somehow, Desmond seems pretty convinced he has to go along with Widmore's plan.... John Locke ended up on the Island because one of Widmore's agents convinced him to go on the walkabout. And so on. Widmore a real agent/pawn of Jacob while he imagines to serve his own goals, while Benjamin thought he was serving the Island/Jacob but was being the pawn of MiB unknowingly? Maybe, we'll see.

There were three plans: Hurley wanted to go to Locke to talk and negotiate, Sawyer had a betrayal of MiB organized with Widmore, and Richard and Ben are going a the face-off with Widmore's people to prevent MiB from escaping.

Two of these plans fell through, and now only the final confrontation between Widmore and Ben on one side, and Widmore and MiB on the other look set to happen. Hurley's bunch joined Sawyer and now are Widmore's captives - but there's Jin there too. I wouldn't rule out too early that Widmore's motivation to betray his word to Sawyer is that he doesn't trust people who have been involved with Smokey, and without the deal, Sawyer would not have served his purposes going back to un-Locke so he told Sawyer what Sawyer needed to hear to accept to work for him. Now they're back, he began by neutralizing them in case they're Smokey's agents. We'll see what he intends next. His caution might be very wise, considering there's Claire with the group.

The big question is why he wanted Jacob's candidates. It sounds to me like Widmore's plan is to neutralize the candidates (or protect?) and lure MiB into trying to escape, but when he does Widmore intends to "capture" MIB to control his power, as soon as he's free of the Island. Widmore seems set on baiting MiB into the confrontation. He must know it's pointless to use mortars against Smokey. A good trick to convince Smokey Widmore is a fool and all he needs to be careful about is not to destroy his way off the island in the confrontation.

It seems like Jacob's plan is to use Widmore to distract Smokey so the final candidate can arise and become the new Guardian.

What's clearer and clearer is that the enormous source of power everyone has wanted through time (those ancient people who dug the wells, Dharma, the US army and so on) is the very source of power (Evil) the Island protects the world against. If un-Locke manages to get rid of the cork and leave the island, he will have his full power again and he will send the world into chaos.

I wondered about it, if it would cover all appearances and if they mentioned this last night so the topic Christian would be off the table, but you're right, apparently it isn't.
Wait, remind me: What situation did Jack see Christian in LA?

He kept seing him while he was getting convinced he must go back to the Island.

We really don't understand all the rules of the game just yet. Are there really "independent ghosts" with a will of their own or are they all manifestations triggered by either Jacob or MiB, or are all of them triggered by MiB while Jacob has no power over the dead? It's hard to tell for now. Jacob couldn't bring Ricardo's wife back but he could extend his life way beyond normal....

We don't know yet if dead people appearing out of the island are or aren't MiB's stuff. In the past season, the whispers sure seemed to be heard a lot when Smokey was around.... keeping an eye on him or serving him, that's the question... At the moment, I'm inclined to think the dead on and around the island are MiB's captives - that MiB tries to divide and use Jacob's new candidates to get rid of Jacob and get off the island, and failing that he use them one against the other to get them out of the way and their "souls" are his when they die.

Are Jacob and dead people like Charlie and Michael truly guiding Hurley, or is he being manipulated by MiB? Jacob never told Hurley he had to go to un-Locke, Michael did. Michael showed him where to find un-Locke as well. Was Michael really Michael, or was he part of a horde of captive souls MiB can use at will? The thing about Jacob is that he died on the island too, and by what MiB told us this week, in theory apparitions by Jacob now could actually be MiB.... Did MiB or Jacob brought Jack and Hurley to the lighthouse (where Jack destroyed Jacob's device)? Has MIB convinced Hurley to listen to the dead's advice and fake-Jacob's, and is he now holding Hurley's leash? "Hurley go to the Lighthouse so Jack destroys the device and turns on Jacob, Hurley bring them all to me?"

There are many apparitions and visions that we can't yet understand, but if they told us the rules, the pieces of the puzzle would all fall into place (which is why they won't give us the full set of rules before the very end...). Take for example season 2. Season 2 was brilliantly structured, using elaborate writing devices quite unusual for TV. The hatch storyline was a metaphor for the greater conflict: it was built after an incident in which scientists tried to tap into the Island's anomalous powers of "chaos" (space and time travel and so on) which lead to disaster. We don't know yet to what corresponds this incident in the mythology, but clearly the hatch was similar to the Island, a stopper. A guardian (the one we met was Desmond who was replaced by the candidates) had to push a button each 108 minutes, until a replacement came to take his place as the new guardian. Desmond appears as a sort of stand-in for Jacob as "guardian" and as the agent who brought flight 815 to the Island (when he forgot to push the button). In the s2 finale, Locke who no longer believe the hatch really has a purpose made Desmond use the failsafe, proving the power was very real. Locke was hooked on "his destiny" from then on. An intersting question is in the mythology, if Desmond stood for the guardian, what the button and failsafe correspond to?

Now.. in season 1 Locke had encounters with Smokey and was convinced the Island spoke to him, that he had a destiny. He became convinced his destiny was tied to the Hatch. We know now that Locke was manipulated MIB all along. So, MIB brought him to the hatch. Or did he? Was it rather Jacob who used the hatch as a test for the candidates - a test several one them (Desmond, Kate, Michael, Locke) failed because they stopped believing or didn't accept the leap of faith, or couldn't bear the responsability when circumstances got though? Was MIB simply interferring with Jacob's test, trying to make everyone fail... It's still hard to tell.

Through season 2 after the hatch got opened, several key players had visions:

Who was Walt appearing to Shannon? The real Walt? Walt used by Jacob, Walt used by MIB? Walt-in-the-jungle lured Shannon into the jungle, which ultimately lead to her death. When he appeared to her and Sayid shortly before she got killed, telling her to keep silent, what was Walt doing? Was he trying to help Shannon - by keeping silent Ana Lucia might miss her? Or was he trying to get her killed: between the whispers of the dead and all, Trigger-happy Ana might panic and kill her unless Shannon and Sayid gave signs of who they were so Michael could forewarn Ana this was his people? In the end, Shannon's reaction to Walt's apparition is what got her killed by Ana Lucia... Sayid didn't fall, he didn't take his revenge. Was this MIB trying to make him fall, or was this a test from Jacob?

This in turn calls to question if "Jacob" told his followers Walt was "special" and they needed to capture him, or if this "Jacob" was actually MIB trying to mess everything up... The capture of O-815 people brought woes and more woes, especially the capture of Walt that triggered war between the Others and the O-815 people. MiB's or Jacob's doing? It seems "obvious" it was MiB messing up with Jacob's people, like trying to make Locke the leader of the Others was again inspired not by Jacob but MiB. But was it?

But this would mean MiB can also make apparitions as people who are alive, like Walt was at the time.... Or was this Jacob testing Shannon (or more likely Sayid in this case) as potential candidate?

There was Kate's black horse too, and the weird manifestation of Wayne in Sawyer's body, while Sawyer hung between life and death. It turned out Kate wasn't hallucinating about the horse - Sawyer saw it too, so she wasn't hallucinating about Wayne either. This incident drove Kate away from the hatch while no one was around to push the button. The "incident" nearly happened that time, the button was pushed at the last instant. So, MiB as Kate's horse? This would mean MiB can dig up memories.... Or was this all part of a testing of Kate as a candidate by Jacob. A test she failed?

Then there was Charlie's weird dreams/visions about Aaron and drowning, centered around a self-sacrifice for Aaron's sake. What was it all about? In one of the visions, the white vs. black symbolism returned, a white dove chasing away a black one. This is one of the more ambiguous incidents. This seems to foreshadow Charlie's sacrifice later on that resulted in Aaron leaving the island, and yet these visions became very divisive again. Charlie was a pariah with everyone after this, while Locke's influence over Claire grew. MiB or Jacob?

As for Christian... is there an independant Christian ghost at all, or are all of them apparitions by MiB? Christian was involved in what sent Locke away from the Island to die and be brought back. Ghost, Jacob's agent or MIB? the cabin setting suggests MIB. If Christian who appeared to Jack in L.A. was also MIB, then it opens wide the door for all the other such apparitions to have been by MIB as well, notably the visits of dead Charlie to Hugo, dead Jacob to Hugo and so on.

And of course there's the mysterious boy following un-Locke around, but visible to everyone. That one we at least know is not tied to MiB, who advise to simply ignore him.

It sound more and moe like the finale will be very rewarding to hardcore fans who keep track of all the details, while for the rest of us there will be a few WTF situations that will send us rewatching the whole series before we can really understand everything.

I've started rewatching the DVDs for the first time, and it's pretty amazing how much foreshadowing and clues there were all along. It's pretty stunning how consistant they've been from the first season. The details of the plot, timing of the reveals and many characters (Ben, notably) they made up as they went along, but it's clear the greater picture about MiB and Smokey, the details of the timeline (even the US military were foreshadowed in season 2) etc. they had from day 1 or so. They must have enriched it with new ideas over the years, but the great lines and many not so great lines they have devised from the start.

"Is he the candidate?"

It's unclear... he always seemed to be the obvious choice, but it's not clear if that's just obvious because it's what it is or rather a red herring. Desmond's purpose is still unclear as well. He was the guardian of the hatch, before Locke was lured there, though in the end it was Jack's choice to comply while Locke ended up giving up on it. And the original connection was between Desmond and Jack. if the hatch was intended as a test of the candidates by Jacob, and Desmond in the metaphor represents Jacob waiting for his replacement, then it seems to foreshadow the new guardian is indeed Jack.

Personally, I doubt the final choice will be Jin and Sun or Hurley. The character who always everyone's problems on his shoulders and sacrifice himself to fix things up was always Jack. He seems to be the one whose commitment to fix things up no matter what comes and no matter the price to himself and others is being tested. Jacob's role isn't easy. It involves making nasty decisions in the name of the greater good (keeping the world from MiB's power). Jack is still having problems with that. Using others, sacrificing others burden him with guilt and when it happens he falters as a guardian/leader. He couldn't afford to do that as Jacob's replacement. It's hard to see who else would be better among the candidates, though.