Re: Well, we have a very weird situation here
White Flame of Tar Valon Send a noteboard - 27/02/2010 05:40:16 PM
He didn't say he was joking. He was trying to spring a trap, and you happened to be a suitable target for it.
The problem is, as inactivity goes as a criteria for this sort of trap, Hieshyn and Bergioyn stick out as most inactive, and again, the weird thing about that, which may simply be coincidence, is that both hypocopped Fox and both found him guilty. Now, Fox is not a lightning rod so loosely speaking, his odds of being hypocopped guilty by a given player should have 1 in 30. For this to happen twice, and by two players who have been very inactive, seems to stretch coincidence a bit. This is actually exacerbated by three people hypocopping me, which I assume was meant to cover for the cop since I was the expected target, it's entirely possible all three of my hypocoppers aren't cops, but I'm assuming they targeted me for HC to protect the cop, or appear to be doing so. This really shoves those odds down, I doubt anyone who hypocopped me did it truly random (which is fine, we don't really want true random target selection) but removing them as random selectors pumps the odds of HCing Fox guilty for a given player to 1 in 45 (roughly) and this simply seems unlikely.
Which ever the case, Fox is simply too old a hand at this game not to stare at the HCT for clues if he was a DF. First thing a DF does on a complete table is start eliminating players as 'can't be a cop' which is troublesome obviously in a 3 faction game. I believe him when he says he didn't even notice the HCT, because townies often don't, we view it early on as a receipt for later audit, on it's first day it holds no obvious clues for the town.
I can't see a DF not looking at it though, and since he'd been hit by not one but two guilty hypocops, if he were a DF, I think he'd have been genuinely panicked. These things don't bother me much, because I get HC'd in droves, but were I a DF and saw one of my allies HC'd guilty by two players, without any advance basis that might attract lots of HC's, I'd assume one of them was the cop and be very worried and ramping up bussing efforts. Yet, nobody has done so, no deliberate distancing etc, which makes me think he is not a DF. Can you see him, as a DF, trying this trap on inactives while the two most inactives HC'd you guilty? Can you see a DF allied to him not having laid at least some groundwork to been seen as somewhat suspicious of Fox and most definetly not allied?
I feel the weight of evidence, compared to the realistic scenarios, strongly favors Fox being town, and if nothing else, it doesn't seem to point anti-town.
Further, the flavor of his debate with me over ranagrande just doesn't seem very DFish. HE took a strong stance and rather than retreating from it when challenged, defended it for a prolonged period of time, DF's don't usually take strong early stances (self excluded) and when their arguments for their framee start disintegrating they tend to jump ship on it pretty quick. His actions, IMO, come off much more as townie following a genuine suspicion as opposed to DF trying to cobble together a frame job on an available target. I could be wrong, Fox's trap may be what Hieshyn thinks it is, but I doubt it.
So while I agree to Hieshyn's vote seeming more OMGUS than anything else, I really feel we need to consider the possibility that something deeper is going on here, there are too many coincidences involved for me to dismiss it.
Wow, this is a pretty good sum up of everything. I hadn't really paid much attention to the hypocop table, but I think we can also assume that there is a possibility that people are not randomly selecting their targets for the hypocop randomly, so maybe its just two random results. Then again, there is that possibility that someone actually found him to be a DF. Whatever the case, I am somewhat inclined to just put this aside as just a sort of "revenge vote" for springing the trap on him. But i shall wait for the results of further debate
Rafo Mafia 4 Day 2 is over.
08/02/2010 06:53:53 PM
- 3418 Views
Well, I guess I'll kick off this discussion
08/02/2010 08:53:49 PM
- 1356 Views
Re: Well, I guess I'll kick off this discussion
08/02/2010 09:28:57 PM
- 1156 Views
Hey, by the way, are you Mafia?
08/02/2010 09:34:46 PM
- 1302 Views
I am not Hopper
08/02/2010 10:37:55 PM
- 1225 Views
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Maybe I am AWESOME
08/02/2010 11:19:48 PM
- 1287 Views
A few questions and comments
08/02/2010 09:29:06 PM
- 1235 Views
Re: Well, I guess I'll kick off this discussion
09/02/2010 02:47:03 AM
- 1217 Views
RBIRL ... test tomorrow. Probably not going to post tonight. *NM*
09/02/2010 12:03:38 AM
- 735 Views
You know what?
09/02/2010 01:17:52 AM
- 1184 Views
Re: You know what?
09/02/2010 01:34:42 AM
- 1122 Views
Heh, inorganic chemistry.
09/02/2010 01:57:39 AM
- 1178 Views
Re: Heh, inorganic chemistry.
09/02/2010 02:38:45 AM
- 1162 Views
Re: Heh, inorganic chemistry.
09/02/2010 03:29:32 AM
- 1231 Views
Re: Heh, inorganic chemistry.
09/02/2010 03:36:28 AM
- 1203 Views
Well thanks for the encouragement.
09/02/2010 04:14:50 AM
- 1369 Views
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Heh, Mafia: Other than the occasional lynching or assassination, we're one big supportive family.
09/02/2010 04:24:26 AM
- 1179 Views
Hypocop (Table)
09/02/2010 12:59:06 AM
- 1255 Views
I investigated Fox and Ravens and found hi to be for the shadow. *NM*
09/02/2010 04:46:50 AM
- 672 Views
Hmmm,
09/02/2010 06:18:29 AM
- 1165 Views
We didn't lose two of our biggest roles. Also- I wonder if there are more roles?
09/02/2010 06:35:05 AM
- 1072 Views
Re: We didn't lose two of our biggest roles. Also- I wonder if there are more roles?
09/02/2010 07:16:19 AM
- 1172 Views
Huh. Oh boy oh
09/02/2010 06:39:15 AM
- 999 Views
Care to give us your thoughts? *NM*
09/02/2010 07:26:09 AM
- 706 Views
Well, losing Doc and Deputy same night is bound to cause trouble. Especially losing Doc. *NM*
09/02/2010 08:54:49 AM
- 667 Views
I want to throw this out here.
09/02/2010 07:21:04 AM
- 1214 Views
What changed your mind? *NM*
09/02/2010 08:58:09 AM
- 656 Views
Well, I realized I was the one telling everyone to just vote for someone.
09/02/2010 04:56:17 PM
- 1171 Views
Why is everyone assuming we have a SK?
10/02/2010 12:09:47 AM
- 1233 Views
What tips me off is the "melted plastic".
10/02/2010 12:22:56 AM
- 1062 Views
That's so arbitrary, though.
10/02/2010 12:57:09 AM
- 1035 Views
EBWOP: It's probably not a vigilante.
10/02/2010 01:05:57 AM
- 1263 Views
That seems like good reasoning
10/02/2010 01:50:47 AM
- 1189 Views
Re: That seems like good reasoning
10/02/2010 01:58:14 AM
- 1213 Views
That's a vig rule? I did not know that
10/02/2010 08:16:56 PM
- 1173 Views
Well, it's pretty common sense.
10/02/2010 09:09:09 PM
- 1269 Views
I think he might have been referring to vigilante kills being blockable
10/02/2010 09:43:53 PM
- 1110 Views
As the resident expert on vigilantism
10/02/2010 08:04:17 PM
- 1485 Views
Youre the resident expert on vigilantism? *NM*
11/02/2010 11:06:24 PM
- 670 Views
He was a vig once or twice. *NM*
12/02/2010 01:33:57 AM
- 705 Views
Wait, haven't you proposed an arsonist most games. *NM*
10/02/2010 04:37:33 AM
- 651 Views
Because we have a SK *NM*
10/02/2010 05:14:00 AM
- 620 Views
wait a minute
10/02/2010 01:15:32 PM
- 1187 Views
Another thing
10/02/2010 04:42:50 PM
- 1294 Views
F-T, I assume
10/02/2010 05:08:58 PM
- 1122 Views
Probably, might be a hint at an RB but I doubt it *NM*
10/02/2010 06:57:01 PM
- 683 Views
I don't think it could be a RB
10/02/2010 07:47:55 PM
- 1225 Views
We're stalling out a bit
11/02/2010 10:05:09 PM
- 1129 Views
We could talk about my heroic failure to defend the innocent some more? Fine...
12/02/2010 07:12:51 AM
- 1208 Views
You seem engaged in a very active defense so far this game
12/02/2010 09:40:23 PM
- 1361 Views
Yawn...
12/02/2010 11:28:50 PM
- 1321 Views
Re: Yawn...
13/02/2010 12:32:30 AM
- 1288 Views
Re: Yawn...
13/02/2010 01:31:41 AM
- 1215 Views
He's brought up accusations on himself
13/02/2010 02:40:01 AM
- 1322 Views
Alrighty, let's try this again.
14/02/2010 06:38:26 AM
- 1010 Views
On F-T's accusations against you.
14/02/2010 01:54:20 AM
- 1195 Views
Re: On F-T's accusations against you.
14/02/2010 03:43:52 AM
- 1087 Views
That's right, I am the Breaker of Unbroken Records
14/02/2010 05:56:52 AM
- 1167 Views
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Actually, quite few of my streaks were broken on that one
14/02/2010 08:43:09 AM
- 1075 Views
I'm in second? Woo!
14/02/2010 02:46:05 PM
- 1161 Views
Yep, welcome to being a lightning rod
14/02/2010 09:10:43 PM
- 1298 Views
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I'm not gonna be as targeted as you; I've died a LOT.
14/02/2010 11:17:24 PM
- 1164 Views
Ironically I don't think I've ever killed you
14/02/2010 11:56:03 PM
- 1141 Views
Game 1 I remember.
15/02/2010 12:01:21 AM
- 1030 Views
Re: Game 1 I remember.
15/02/2010 12:19:30 AM
- 1365 Views
Three stalled out over the winter holidays and we had to restart.
15/02/2010 01:26:59 AM
- 1338 Views
Actually...
15/02/2010 04:57:50 PM
- 1254 Views
A second line of thought: ranagrande
12/02/2010 07:40:37 AM
- 1423 Views
Vote: Hieshyn
15/02/2010 03:27:04 AM
- 1019 Views
Re: Hieshyn
15/02/2010 12:54:42 PM
- 1302 Views
Well, it's less that discussion is winding down, and more that we don't have any new topics
15/02/2010 05:48:22 PM
- 1064 Views
Well this was unexpected.
15/02/2010 06:07:44 PM
- 1122 Views
Re: Well this was unexpected.
15/02/2010 08:30:57 PM
- 1134 Views
I think he's saying that he's been quiet because he's busy, not a DF
15/02/2010 08:39:53 PM
- 1045 Views
If he was the SK
15/02/2010 07:55:38 PM
- 1239 Views
Game 9 was F-T's Cairhienen Civil War/Succession.
15/02/2010 08:53:03 PM
- 1118 Views
Oh that's right!
15/02/2010 09:03:40 PM
- 1093 Views
Re: Game 9 was F-T's Cairhienen Civil War/Succession.
15/02/2010 11:54:44 PM
- 1206 Views
Lol irony
16/02/2010 12:16:49 AM
- 1166 Views
So, it's just because he hasn't been talking much? That fits a lot of people
15/02/2010 09:31:02 PM
- 1236 Views
OK, I'm glad that vote got some discussion flowing.
16/02/2010 02:58:55 AM
- 1258 Views
Ooo sneaky sneaky
16/02/2010 03:58:37 AM
- 1360 Views
Re: Ooo sneaky sneaky
16/02/2010 04:25:26 AM
- 1175 Views
You know doing this sort of thing can get you lynched
16/02/2010 04:40:23 AM
- 1229 Views
Oh, I know it can.
16/02/2010 05:23:13 AM
- 1196 Views
Re: Oh, I know it can.
16/02/2010 07:00:53 AM
- 1256 Views
It's weird- I've never played Live Mafia, but I imagine it's very different.
16/02/2010 08:58:09 AM
- 1267 Views
I'm still here, I've been busy with studying, and hadn't realized I was gone this long.
16/02/2010 06:50:44 AM
- 1155 Views
Sorry all. Friday thru Monday suddenly got really hectic, I wasn't home much at all.
18/02/2010 01:54:02 AM
- 1174 Views
So, where are we at?
18/02/2010 02:40:32 AM
- 1180 Views
EBWOP: Issac's maybe only a 5.5. No, a 5.7
18/02/2010 06:58:40 AM
- 1206 Views
OK so I apparantly lack the technical know-how to reply to myself
18/02/2010 07:08:36 AM
- 1295 Views
Re: OK so I apparantly lack the technical know-how to reply to myself
18/02/2010 07:54:05 AM
- 1170 Views
Well yeah, all of that is mostly why I haven't been pushing anything
18/02/2010 08:51:14 AM
- 1077 Views
Uggggghhhh...Ok. This post makes me want to vote you off.
18/02/2010 03:28:19 PM
- 1102 Views
You seem to have misunbderstood my question
18/02/2010 04:28:47 PM
- 1111 Views
Re: You seem to have misunbderstood my question
18/02/2010 05:10:14 PM
- 1282 Views
Nice little typo I have there on misundertood, that's gonna be nagging at me for all of Day 2
18/02/2010 05:25:49 PM
- 1121 Views
Re: Nice little typo I have there on misundertood, that's gonna be nagging at me for all of Day 2
19/02/2010 04:45:25 AM
- 1107 Views
Thanks, all right let's review it
19/02/2010 11:41:19 AM
- 1157 Views
Alright then.
19/02/2010 05:20:39 PM
- 937 Views
EBWOP
19/02/2010 05:23:06 PM
- 1250 Views
Re: EBWOP
19/02/2010 06:53:08 PM
- 1245 Views
Naive?
19/02/2010 07:13:14 PM
- 1249 Views
Naive or sinister, take your pick
19/02/2010 07:29:09 PM
- 1197 Views
We could go with "arrogant," instead of either of those, if you like
20/02/2010 01:59:22 AM
- 995 Views
Hmm...well here's something interesting now that you reminded me of that game...
19/02/2010 08:26:33 PM
- 1091 Views
Re: Hmm...well here's something interesting now that you reminded me of that game...
19/02/2010 08:40:47 PM
- 1076 Views
Re: EBWOP
19/02/2010 08:32:55 PM
- 1056 Views
Re: EBWOP
19/02/2010 08:57:50 PM
- 1082 Views
Actually, that reminds me. HEY KRONIN!
18/02/2010 07:09:39 AM
- 1133 Views
Hey.
18/02/2010 04:09:08 PM
- 1182 Views
Re: Hey.
18/02/2010 05:37:33 PM
- 1259 Views
FT had no evidence one way or the other if Issac was a DF
18/02/2010 05:44:43 PM
- 1078 Views
Don't put words in my mouth.
18/02/2010 06:03:55 PM
- 1229 Views
Oh no, I know, I know. I'm just saying, FT has no more credibility than any of us *NM*
18/02/2010 07:48:58 PM
- 683 Views
But he IS a damn good player, and his advice, however limited, should be taken into account. *NM*
18/02/2010 07:49:58 PM
- 659 Views
fistofpainx, Do you have any thoughts?
18/02/2010 05:46:38 PM
- 1164 Views
I think that
18/02/2010 09:45:56 PM
- 1224 Views
Well, if my combine the Vote Record with our previous suspicions...
18/02/2010 09:48:24 PM
- 1131 Views
All right, ranagrande (and everyone else). Why shouldn't we lynch you?
18/02/2010 11:32:07 PM
- 1137 Views
Re: All right, ranagrande (and everyone else). Why shouldn't we lynch you?
19/02/2010 03:01:45 AM
- 1063 Views
Re: All right, ranagrande (and everyone else). Why shouldn't we lynch you?
19/02/2010 04:07:03 AM
- 1204 Views
I think you're overestimating the appearance of your own innocence.
19/02/2010 05:38:53 AM
- 1108 Views
Yeah, it's mostly just about getting the conversation going
19/02/2010 06:40:17 AM
- 1161 Views
In response to Fox and Ravens (down here to stop horizontal scroll)
19/02/2010 09:50:16 PM
- 1186 Views
Re: In response to Fox and Ravens (down here to stop horizontal scroll)
19/02/2010 10:22:37 PM
- 1222 Views
Well, the reason for the prohibition doesn't apply post-game, so I'll go with no
20/02/2010 05:07:38 AM
- 1118 Views
After seeing this thread....
20/02/2010 05:53:47 AM
- 1039 Views
Go ahead and start one then.
20/02/2010 06:08:12 AM
- 1164 Views
Re: Go ahead and start one then.
20/02/2010 06:47:23 AM
- 1270 Views
Isaac, did you say you have Cor's original rules saved somewhere?
20/02/2010 04:50:29 PM
- 1265 Views
Re: Isaac, did you say you have Cor's original rules saved somewhere?
20/02/2010 05:16:09 PM
- 1325 Views
Alright.
20/02/2010 05:43:51 PM
- 1217 Views
Thanks
20/02/2010 07:48:20 PM
- 1073 Views
Re: Thanks
20/02/2010 10:35:26 PM
- 1070 Views
Ranagrande *NM*
21/02/2010 12:55:29 AM
- 640 Views
Really?
21/02/2010 01:58:24 AM
- 1158 Views
Re: Thanks
21/02/2010 01:57:25 AM
- 1159 Views
Well, you kind of said it yourself.
21/02/2010 07:38:32 PM
- 1122 Views
I'm purposefully trying to not be so focussed on ranagrande
21/02/2010 11:06:40 PM
- 1210 Views
Not sure I follow
22/02/2010 06:49:11 PM
- 1222 Views
Items of note from my NB archive:
21/02/2010 09:37:49 PM
- 1284 Views
I am kind of confused about what you're doing here.
22/02/2010 07:20:49 PM
- 1331 Views
I'm feeling the same thing.
22/02/2010 07:36:46 PM
- 1167 Views
I hadn't even seen Beet's post at the bottom there until after I'd posted this.
22/02/2010 07:44:49 PM
- 1156 Views
Re: Rafo Mafia 4 Day 2
22/02/2010 12:09:20 PM
- 1234 Views
Alright. Here's a quick synposis
22/02/2010 07:54:19 PM
- 1211 Views
That sounds about right to me.
22/02/2010 07:58:29 PM
- 1178 Views
I'll try to, I just may not have the time to. If I do, I'll definately read them all. *NM*
23/02/2010 07:05:24 AM
- 601 Views
Another minor piece against ranagrande
22/02/2010 07:13:44 PM
- 1233 Views
Re: Another minor piece against ranagrande
22/02/2010 08:23:48 PM
- 1344 Views
Fair enough
22/02/2010 08:38:51 PM
- 1290 Views
Re: Fair enough
22/02/2010 09:07:57 PM
- 1142 Views
Maybe I missed it....
22/02/2010 09:26:47 PM
- 1258 Views
Re: Maybe I missed it....
23/02/2010 09:38:23 PM
- 1116 Views
I will destroy the world
23/02/2010 11:17:26 PM
- 1253 Views
And yet, that's the exact same thing you called me out on yesterday. *NM*
24/02/2010 01:07:07 AM
- 563 Views
Ok, that's totally different...
24/02/2010 06:36:00 AM
- 1109 Views
All that's different is the presumed final intent.
24/02/2010 12:36:32 PM
- 1222 Views
Yeah ... those are pretty much the same. *NM*
24/02/2010 03:17:25 PM
- 572 Views
Yea.... beet's looking worse and worse every time he opens his mouth, so to speak. *NM*
24/02/2010 09:00:47 PM
- 666 Views
No, this is my view:
24/02/2010 11:23:25 PM
- 1240 Views
And my view was:
25/02/2010 01:29:13 AM
- 1131 Views
shrug. I haven't been attacking you today, you know
25/02/2010 01:46:39 AM
- 1204 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
24/02/2010 04:51:24 AM
- 661 Views
Can I ask why?
24/02/2010 05:06:22 AM
- 1151 Views
We're sort of in a holding pattern here, Hieshyn
25/02/2010 07:01:23 PM
- 1308 Views
You're right, Isaac.
25/02/2010 08:47:03 PM
- 1313 Views
Though I presume this was already somewhat obvious, ^Seconded. *NM*
25/02/2010 08:56:19 PM
- 571 Views
I'll agree. Beet has been suspicious, and we havent found enough with ranagrande to continue *NM*
26/02/2010 02:00:36 AM
- 692 Views
At first I thought he was going for a F&R-style trap
26/02/2010 01:44:16 AM
- 1208 Views
RBIRL. Had a lot of school stuff, gone for the weekend. Sorry. *NM*
27/02/2010 01:05:40 AM
- 664 Views
Sorry I've been insanely busy.
27/02/2010 03:33:43 AM
- 1294 Views
This seems a lot like an OMGUS.
27/02/2010 07:02:12 AM
- 1101 Views
Well, we have a very weird situation here
27/02/2010 05:13:12 PM
- 1201 Views
Re: Well, we have a very weird situation here
27/02/2010 05:40:16 PM
- 1001 Views
Re: Sorry I've been insanely busy.
27/02/2010 07:06:39 AM
- 1183 Views
Okay, let's try to finish off today
27/02/2010 07:27:09 PM
- 1206 Views
Interesting.
27/02/2010 09:28:33 PM
- 1128 Views
I sort of assumed everyone knew where I'm aiming, I've been pretty open about it
27/02/2010 09:45:50 PM
- 1169 Views
Vote: ranagrande
27/02/2010 09:12:51 PM
- 1131 Views
What, if anything, has changed?
28/02/2010 03:19:49 AM
- 1147 Views
Dang, I didn't know you could make text larger. Fancy! *NM*
28/02/2010 04:57:28 AM
- 629 Views
A little joke
28/02/2010 05:16:14 AM
- 1737 Views
Yikes (warning: lots of text)
28/02/2010 12:35:16 AM
- 1144 Views
Guess I'll set up the other camp: Vote: beetnemesis
28/02/2010 03:22:49 AM
- 1137 Views
my stance on voting
01/03/2010 03:08:33 AM
- 1263 Views
Re: my stance on voting
01/03/2010 03:21:32 AM
- 1296 Views
Perhaps a deadline would liven things up?
02/03/2010 08:46:35 PM
- 1135 Views
I hope you all feel really guilty about this
03/03/2010 06:22:57 AM
- 1033 Views
Not likely, we're pretty draconian about lynches these days
03/03/2010 09:15:00 AM
- 1030 Views
..I can and HAVE rebutted these.
03/03/2010 05:15:32 PM
- 1100 Views
EBWOP: I need to start hitting preview to make sure the formatting is right.
03/03/2010 05:18:43 PM
- 1074 Views
I'm sorry, I am not convinced
03/03/2010 11:16:36 PM
- 1028 Views
I figured it'd be meaningless to RC, but ok...
04/03/2010 01:54:36 AM
- 1115 Views
All right, let's look at this
04/03/2010 02:06:58 AM
- 1232 Views
I find this very, very, very, VERY unlikely.
04/03/2010 05:25:41 AM
- 1249 Views
At this point I feel like anything I could say would only hurt my case
04/03/2010 06:34:43 AM
- 1182 Views
You brought this upon yourself.
03/03/2010 01:06:58 PM
- 1118 Views
Are you a Town Roleblocker? (Table) - Summary: All 'No'
04/03/2010 02:28:55 AM
- 1263 Views
Well, I don't think there is much point in further delay
04/03/2010 11:44:57 PM
- 1025 Views
I think that's everyone.
05/03/2010 04:39:23 AM
- 1040 Views
Well, Beet already hammered.
05/03/2010 06:44:08 AM
- 1120 Views
Beetnemesis has been lynched
05/03/2010 05:38:05 PM
- 1184 Views
Sorry Beet!
*NM*
06/03/2010 05:11:56 AM
- 650 Views
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You shall be the only one I don't haunt *NM*
06/03/2010 06:29:23 AM
- 575 Views
Yo, what did I do to you? *NM*
06/03/2010 06:47:51 PM
- 717 Views
I meant of those who lynched me! You shall be EXALTED!
06/03/2010 06:52:39 PM
- 1251 Views