It's a good question, and I'm going to join you in asking it. I think at this point either one of them is a Darkfriend or neither of them is a Darkfriend, but not both. There's no way they would go after each other like that if they were knowingly on the same team, and it's only Day 1 so it's not like they've had time to compare strategies or anything and come up with some ridiculous plot to make the Town trust them. On other hand though, we can't fall into a false dichotomy - it's very possible that they're both Townies, after all. But if we lynch one of them and he comes up guilty, we can be fairly sure that the other is Town, I think.
The answer to Fox's question is given as a reply directly, so I won't repeat it. For the rest, I share you opinion on Kronin, again, I have absolutely no idea if FT is guilty or not, I view it as 50/50 which is better odds than we have on anyone else or will get randomly.
Now, my new found prominence as a DF suspect, which is starting to get cliche from game to game even though it's understandbale, seems essentially to revolve around my prosecuting FT's case. One flaw I see in this, why if I thought FT was a miller would I try to lynch him, if I were a DF?
'Advantages' to me as a DF in lynching the miller:
Remove a scapegoat who will draw suspicion all game long while alive
Be seen as the prime motivator behind a lynch that I already know will turn out wrong
Sincerely reduce any chance of being able to use 'flawed cop' as a defense, a flawed cop in a game with a miller would not only be weird but would indicate a massive town disadvantage (and considering I expect to be copped shortly, you'd think I'd want to leave that avenue open if I were a DF)
Pass an opportunity at a improved chance at killing a role or rival faction (SK, cult, etc)
Now, there are two obvious flaws in that. First, I might think he's a rival faction member, however if that's the case then while it's grounds for suspecting me it remains a good justification for go after FT. DFs can profit from a SK, especially early on when the odds highly favor them killing a townie and no obvious connections exist betweens players to cause problems when X falls over dead as a DF and people remember Y and X have been working together. The other one, of course, is that by going after FT I prevent a chance of myself or a comrade being offed. But I was already basically safe from a day 1 lynch and if anything I've worsened my odds in that regard by pursuing it. What's more I've usually had good luck at removing allies from random lynching without drawing attention so I'm unlikely to want to use FT as a vehicle for protecting my DF allies.
Essentially, while I freely admit to being a tricksome fellow, I never as a DF pursue a course that has less profit than other ones available unless I have no choice, and obviously I had a choice. I can't see any obvious profit from this course as a DF, and I'd say the proof is in the pudding here. No one has voted for FT, and certainly no one would be suspect for doing so, either his DF allies don't want to bus him (they've little reason too) or he's innocent and the DF's have basically drawn the same conclusion I have, that FT is not a profitable target for DF maneuver at this time. I'm sure they'd be happy to jump on his bandwagon if he's not one of them, but in their shoes I'd rather still be shoving around hoping to eliminate some people as cop or doc via RC and maybe luck out and catch one of them, or discredit their future claim by forcing them to vanilla RC now. This seems a much more logical course of action, and before anyone tries to WIFOM this, as it draws no special suspicion by doing things that way, it is not WIFOM-able, because of the two options, one is obviously much better.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafo Mafia 4: Day 1 has ended.
27/01/2010 05:53:50 PM
- 3132 Views
This is a confirmation of the prompt receival of said role message.
27/01/2010 08:30:45 PM
- 1265 Views
You made it up
27/01/2010 09:01:31 PM
- 1225 Views
Hmm ...
27/01/2010 09:21:59 PM
- 1311 Views
Ha.
28/01/2010 01:28:27 AM
- 1154 Views
It sounds like a real word.
28/01/2010 01:55:58 AM
- 1238 Views
You know, I'm still irritated we haven't been able to come up with a good R1 system
28/01/2010 07:08:22 AM
- 1187 Views
Well, lacking anything else...
28/01/2010 11:58:25 PM
- 1338 Views
I haven't the faintest idea what they mean.
29/01/2010 01:30:19 AM
- 1268 Views
Not really
29/01/2010 02:27:05 AM
- 1304 Views
Let's try something
29/01/2010 02:47:30 AM
- 1217 Views
alrighty then
29/01/2010 03:29:51 AM
- 1276 Views
That's sufficient, thanks
29/01/2010 03:48:11 AM
- 1133 Views
Yea, my message has all that.
29/01/2010 03:56:52 AM
- 1288 Views
Probably
29/01/2010 04:10:42 AM
- 1196 Views
Re: Probably
29/01/2010 07:30:48 AM
- 1152 Views
True- most DFs would wait a bit, and be like the 4th or 5th to jump in
29/01/2010 08:19:43 AM
- 1224 Views
I've got MPD
29/01/2010 04:22:00 AM
- 1242 Views
Surprise, surprise: I do too.
29/01/2010 06:21:04 AM
- 1204 Views
Remember when we killed the Serial Killer on Day 1? That was fun. Let's do that! *NM*
29/01/2010 08:20:24 AM
- 764 Views
I have MPD and number under 14. *NM*
29/01/2010 06:18:59 AM
- 833 Views
I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:14:17 AM
- 1203 Views
Re: I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:27:53 AM
- 1191 Views
High priests cannot be sacrificed!
30/01/2010 04:53:38 PM
- 1148 Views
Some cultures, they make the best sacrifices
30/01/2010 05:47:46 PM
- 1231 Views
I want to roleclaim.
30/01/2010 07:08:11 PM
- 1214 Views
That is, well, surprising
30/01/2010 08:28:04 PM
- 1282 Views
Yeah, but I think it's best to do it now.
30/01/2010 09:38:49 PM
- 1168 Views
Hm. I wonder if we're all robots inside of a Mafia simulator. *NM*
30/01/2010 11:20:25 PM
- 702 Views
Well, I'm back...
31/01/2010 01:43:17 AM
- 1218 Views
Why do fencers keep appearing without me knowing of it?!?
31/01/2010 02:48:22 AM
- 1229 Views
Oh, and I had my first real tournament today...
31/01/2010 03:23:45 AM
- 1235 Views
Eh. Just don't listen to Issac too much.
31/01/2010 04:47:53 AM
- 1191 Views
I wanna say F-T, just cause I hate Millers.
31/01/2010 05:10:07 AM
- 1181 Views
But do you think a DF would try something that DFs already did in the game we just played?
31/01/2010 05:53:24 AM
- 1209 Views
And on a third hand...
31/01/2010 07:00:22 AM
- 1287 Views
So... back to neutral. *NM*
31/01/2010 03:27:58 PM
- 658 Views
You don't find that statement dubious?
31/01/2010 04:14:47 PM
- 1191 Views
I knew Yunalseca was a Darkfriend...
31/01/2010 07:17:33 PM
- 1169 Views
Everyone! Deep breaths...
31/01/2010 11:50:39 PM
- 1179 Views
That's a pretty big thing to forget though.
01/02/2010 01:39:44 AM
- 1154 Views
Who said anything about forgetting?
01/02/2010 02:53:49 AM
- 1221 Views
It brings you protection from guilty Cop results. *NM*
01/02/2010 03:01:22 AM
- 841 Views
No...
01/02/2010 06:25:07 AM
- 1214 Views
Man... I hate defending people I'm not sure about
01/02/2010 07:14:13 AM
- 1209 Views
I agree with beet here.
01/02/2010 07:42:12 AM
- 1171 Views
Offer alternatives then
01/02/2010 11:18:47 AM
- 1229 Views
I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games
01/02/2010 02:23:26 PM
- 1218 Views
I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 05:55:11 AM
- 1247 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 03:34:10 PM
- 1238 Views
Tracker is a role that sees who his target performs a Night Action on...
31/01/2010 03:49:24 PM
- 1093 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 04:19:33 PM
- 1176 Views
Eh. I think this is going to end like Hopper.
31/01/2010 11:58:52 PM
- 1183 Views
What I don't like is the fact that Millers are often not told they're Millers.
01/02/2010 12:08:14 AM
- 1209 Views
Well, he could still be Mafia and have appropriate flavor.
01/02/2010 01:46:58 AM
- 1204 Views
We can't just lynch Isaac on the off chance that he might be a DF.
31/01/2010 05:42:08 AM
- 1209 Views
Alright, from my reading,
31/01/2010 10:53:52 PM
- 1199 Views
RE: I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games (horizontal scroll avoidance)
01/02/2010 02:46:35 PM
- 1296 Views
I really just meant that I don't think F-T's claim of not knowing about Yuna's claim is
01/02/2010 06:16:11 PM
- 1184 Views
You still haven't explained what the purpose of such a lie would be.
01/02/2010 07:15:35 PM
- 1142 Views
I think the rationale was this:
01/02/2010 07:38:41 PM
- 1113 Views
Beg Pardon?
01/02/2010 08:07:20 PM
- 1184 Views
It's true, Isaac likes to be a leader, rather than a doer. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:02 PM
- 733 Views
Coward. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:21 PM
- 767 Views
Er... what just happened, here? *NM*
02/02/2010 12:55:51 AM
- 806 Views
I made a pointless post, decided to turn it into a semi-sarcastic insult.
02/02/2010 01:27:48 AM
- 1183 Views
There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 09:20:57 PM
- 1185 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:03:57 PM
- 1197 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:33:49 PM
- 1267 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 11:11:37 PM
- 1232 Views
Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 12:01:48 AM
- 1160 Views
Re: Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 01:15:41 AM
- 1200 Views
Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:03:28 PM
- 1338 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:20:06 PM
- 1125 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target *NM*
01/02/2010 08:48:25 PM
- 671 Views
Message get eaten? *NM*
01/02/2010 09:21:34 PM
- 709 Views
Apparantly... It was just a minor thing, lemme see if I remember...
02/02/2010 12:44:28 AM
- 1202 Views
Right, so: Defending Myself
01/02/2010 11:30:38 PM
- 1299 Views
Hmm...more accusations beyond beet's
02/02/2010 06:02:51 AM
- 1158 Views
That's interesting.
02/02/2010 02:09:52 PM
- 1207 Views
Re: That's interesting.
02/02/2010 05:19:47 PM
- 1138 Views
Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward.
02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM
- 1322 Views
Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 04:54:54 PM
- 1107 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 05:42:43 PM
- 1155 Views
Re: The random thing
02/02/2010 04:59:42 PM
- 1339 Views
Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 08:48:19 PM
- 1286 Views
Re: Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 09:23:43 PM
- 1188 Views
Okay, so I've been reading, but I kept meaning to post on my comp. Sorry.
02/02/2010 06:21:12 AM
- 1232 Views
I never tried to stop any discussion
02/02/2010 12:46:54 PM
- 1217 Views
Like I said, I don't find it very suspicious, but it was just something I had seen.
02/02/2010 11:14:53 PM
- 1224 Views
Kronin is at least as suspicious as Issac, or F-T
02/02/2010 05:09:56 PM
- 1203 Views
That's pretty bold claim of intention.
02/02/2010 05:18:40 PM
- 1180 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 04:36:52 AM
- 1270 Views
Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 03:13:57 PM
- 1307 Views
Speaking of time...
03/02/2010 03:28:42 PM
- 1255 Views
Only if it starts to grind to a halt. *NM*
03/02/2010 04:50:32 PM
- 786 Views
Re: Only if it starts to grind to a halt.
03/02/2010 06:52:54 PM
- 1262 Views
Er... IS it active? I feel like we've kinda exhausted everything
03/02/2010 11:19:29 PM
- 1132 Views
Hahaha. well, it was!
04/02/2010 12:59:13 AM
- 1144 Views
"No lynch" is a bad idea. At the very least, let's lynch someone random *NM*
04/02/2010 04:07:00 AM
- 721 Views
Everybody knows my perspective on no lynches...or at least I suspect they do. *NM*
04/02/2010 04:09:17 AM
- 786 Views
So you'd rather lynch someone random over F-T? Why?
04/02/2010 04:35:40 AM
- 1254 Views
Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 06:58:15 AM
- 1217 Views
Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 07:07:37 AM
- 1100 Views
Well, yeah- a chance of getting a DF is better than no chance at all
04/02/2010 07:04:27 PM
- 1200 Views
But there is a chance F-T is a DF.
04/02/2010 07:34:37 PM
- 1157 Views
Fair enough...
04/02/2010 07:49:26 PM
- 1156 Views
I agree with D_K actually
04/02/2010 08:32:09 PM
- 1237 Views
You think F-T has less than a 29% (4/14) chance to be a DF?
04/02/2010 08:55:34 PM
- 1125 Views
If a given random person is 30%, then yes, I think F-T is 29% or less
04/02/2010 11:20:26 PM
- 1216 Views
I regret that I have only one life to give to the Light...
04/02/2010 11:00:56 PM
- 1222 Views
You know, you're still at L-3.
04/02/2010 11:14:40 PM
- 1382 Views
L-2, as it were.
04/02/2010 11:41:10 PM
- 1164 Views
Just had to make me incorrect?
04/02/2010 11:55:02 PM
- 1128 Views
I couldn't resist. *NM*
05/02/2010 01:07:59 AM
- 724 Views
05/02/2010 01:15:51 AM
- 1236 Views
Yeah, but I wasn't sure if I'd still be alive next time I came around .
05/02/2010 03:12:19 AM
- 1162 Views
05/02/2010 12:20:04 AM
- 1237 Views
I don't anyone will target you with a night action tonight, frankly.
05/02/2010 03:14:26 AM
- 1212 Views