Active Users:572 Time:13/12/2025 01:15:50 PM
Re: That's interesting. Isaac Send a noteboard - 02/02/2010 05:19:47 PM

It's a good question, and I'm going to join you in asking it. I think at this point either one of them is a Darkfriend or neither of them is a Darkfriend, but not both. There's no way they would go after each other like that if they were knowingly on the same team, and it's only Day 1 so it's not like they've had time to compare strategies or anything and come up with some ridiculous plot to make the Town trust them. On other hand though, we can't fall into a false dichotomy - it's very possible that they're both Townies, after all. But if we lynch one of them and he comes up guilty, we can be fairly sure that the other is Town, I think.


The answer to Fox's question is given as a reply directly, so I won't repeat it. For the rest, I share you opinion on Kronin, again, I have absolutely no idea if FT is guilty or not, I view it as 50/50 which is better odds than we have on anyone else or will get randomly.

Now, my new found prominence as a DF suspect, which is starting to get cliche from game to game even though it's understandbale, seems essentially to revolve around my prosecuting FT's case. One flaw I see in this, why if I thought FT was a miller would I try to lynch him, if I were a DF?

'Advantages' to me as a DF in lynching the miller:
Remove a scapegoat who will draw suspicion all game long while alive
Be seen as the prime motivator behind a lynch that I already know will turn out wrong
Sincerely reduce any chance of being able to use 'flawed cop' as a defense, a flawed cop in a game with a miller would not only be weird but would indicate a massive town disadvantage (and considering I expect to be copped shortly, you'd think I'd want to leave that avenue open if I were a DF)
Pass an opportunity at a improved chance at killing a role or rival faction (SK, cult, etc)

Now, there are two obvious flaws in that. First, I might think he's a rival faction member, however if that's the case then while it's grounds for suspecting me it remains a good justification for go after FT. DFs can profit from a SK, especially early on when the odds highly favor them killing a townie and no obvious connections exist betweens players to cause problems when X falls over dead as a DF and people remember Y and X have been working together. The other one, of course, is that by going after FT I prevent a chance of myself or a comrade being offed. But I was already basically safe from a day 1 lynch and if anything I've worsened my odds in that regard by pursuing it. What's more I've usually had good luck at removing allies from random lynching without drawing attention so I'm unlikely to want to use FT as a vehicle for protecting my DF allies.

Essentially, while I freely admit to being a tricksome fellow, I never as a DF pursue a course that has less profit than other ones available unless I have no choice, and obviously I had a choice. I can't see any obvious profit from this course as a DF, and I'd say the proof is in the pudding here. No one has voted for FT, and certainly no one would be suspect for doing so, either his DF allies don't want to bus him (they've little reason too) or he's innocent and the DF's have basically drawn the same conclusion I have, that FT is not a profitable target for DF maneuver at this time. I'm sure they'd be happy to jump on his bandwagon if he's not one of them, but in their shoes I'd rather still be shoving around hoping to eliminate some people as cop or doc via RC and maybe luck out and catch one of them, or discredit their future claim by forcing them to vanilla RC now. This seems a much more logical course of action, and before anyone tries to WIFOM this, as it draws no special suspicion by doing things that way, it is not WIFOM-able, because of the two options, one is obviously much better.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Reply to message
Rafo Mafia 4: Day 1 has ended. - 27/01/2010 05:53:50 PM 3739 Views
Message received! - 27/01/2010 06:27:15 PM 1868 Views
By lynching Isaac! - 27/01/2010 06:48:02 PM 1686 Views
Ready to go. *NM* - 27/01/2010 06:36:35 PM 992 Views
Got it! *NM* - 27/01/2010 06:43:59 PM 983 Views
Got mine. Wow, we really have nothing to go on, do we? *NM* - 27/01/2010 07:03:28 PM 994 Views
For reals, it doesn't get much more minimal than that! *NM* - 27/01/2010 09:16:44 PM 1000 Views
This is a confirmation of the prompt receival of said role message. - 27/01/2010 08:30:45 PM 1728 Views
You made it up - 27/01/2010 09:01:31 PM 1676 Views
Hmm ... - 27/01/2010 09:21:59 PM 1799 Views
Ha. - 28/01/2010 01:28:27 AM 1597 Views
It sounds like a real word. - 28/01/2010 01:55:58 AM 1689 Views
That's because it sounds like "retrieval" - 28/01/2010 02:01:47 AM 1654 Views
This is true. *NM* - 28/01/2010 02:17:52 AM 1013 Views
Also 'reception'. - 28/01/2010 01:22:27 AM 1691 Views
I got mine. *NM* - 27/01/2010 09:00:49 PM 996 Views
ready to win *NM* - 27/01/2010 09:29:52 PM 1036 Views
I got mine!! *NM* - 27/01/2010 10:45:45 PM 997 Views
Here, received *NM* - 27/01/2010 11:01:43 PM 959 Views
Got it!! - 27/01/2010 11:34:57 PM 1613 Views
Got it - 28/01/2010 01:59:00 AM 1721 Views
yup *NM* - 28/01/2010 05:13:37 AM 954 Views
You know, I'm still irritated we haven't been able to come up with a good R1 system - 28/01/2010 07:08:22 AM 1662 Views
R1? - 28/01/2010 01:59:45 PM 1676 Views
Day 1 - 28/01/2010 02:29:42 PM 1670 Views
Right, Day 1, I meant to type D1... - 28/01/2010 05:52:57 PM 1635 Views
Well, lacking anything else... - 28/01/2010 11:58:25 PM 1801 Views
I haven't the faintest idea what they mean. - 29/01/2010 01:30:19 AM 1729 Views
I'm guessing they're an acronym. *NM* - 29/01/2010 01:44:37 AM 1009 Views
I got letters and/or numbers - 29/01/2010 01:58:52 AM 1804 Views
Not really - 29/01/2010 02:27:05 AM 1741 Views
Let's try something - 29/01/2010 02:47:30 AM 1676 Views
Re: Let's try something - 29/01/2010 03:07:36 AM 1669 Views
alrighty then - 29/01/2010 03:29:51 AM 1712 Views
That's sufficient, thanks - 29/01/2010 03:48:11 AM 1575 Views
Yea, my message has all that. - 29/01/2010 03:56:52 AM 1740 Views
Probably - 29/01/2010 04:10:42 AM 1642 Views
Re: Probably - 29/01/2010 07:30:48 AM 1597 Views
True- most DFs would wait a bit, and be like the 4th or 5th to jump in - 29/01/2010 08:19:43 AM 1684 Views
I've got MPD - 29/01/2010 04:22:00 AM 1681 Views
Surprise, surprise: I do too. - 29/01/2010 06:21:04 AM 1676 Views
Remember when we killed the Serial Killer on Day 1? That was fun. Let's do that! *NM* - 29/01/2010 08:20:24 AM 951 Views
GREAT. - 29/01/2010 11:23:06 PM 1616 Views
Seconded. - 30/01/2010 03:46:21 AM 1699 Views
I have MPD and number under 14. *NM* - 29/01/2010 06:18:59 AM 1038 Views
Me too, but... - 29/01/2010 04:04:35 PM 1631 Views
I doubt there is anything else. - 29/01/2010 11:09:02 PM 1741 Views
I have MPD and number under 14 as well - 29/01/2010 08:08:57 PM 1750 Views
MPD #1 - 30/01/2010 02:57:35 AM 1580 Views
I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia - 30/01/2010 04:14:17 AM 1753 Views
Re: I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia - 30/01/2010 04:27:53 AM 1668 Views
High priests cannot be sacrificed! - 30/01/2010 04:53:38 PM 1578 Views
Ha, that's what YOU think. - 30/01/2010 05:15:44 PM 1679 Views
Some cultures, they make the best sacrifices - 30/01/2010 05:47:46 PM 1673 Views
Hm... let's rule out F&R, too - 30/01/2010 06:46:27 PM 1719 Views
This is sort of what I mean - 30/01/2010 08:02:17 PM 1595 Views
I think I am most suspicious of Blaine right now - 30/01/2010 07:49:03 PM 1695 Views
Yeah, silence isn't neccessarily damning in this case - 30/01/2010 11:15:09 PM 1605 Views
I want to roleclaim. - 30/01/2010 07:08:11 PM 1694 Views
That is, well, surprising - 30/01/2010 08:28:04 PM 1725 Views
Yeah, but I think it's best to do it now. - 30/01/2010 09:38:49 PM 1588 Views
That sounds like solid reasoning to me - 30/01/2010 10:07:05 PM 1699 Views
It is good reasoning. - 30/01/2010 11:24:31 PM 1571 Views
RBIRL for the next week or so. - 01/02/2010 01:02:48 AM 1727 Views
Wrong place - 01/02/2010 01:06:57 AM 1541 Views
this is an odd development - 30/01/2010 09:19:03 PM 1656 Views
Not to my knowledge, no. *NM* - 30/01/2010 09:35:02 PM 925 Views
Hm. I wonder if we're all robots inside of a Mafia simulator. *NM* - 30/01/2010 11:20:25 PM 892 Views
There's an idea. - 30/01/2010 11:25:56 PM 1636 Views
AI gone rogue could easily be an SK... *NM* - 31/01/2010 12:42:19 AM 883 Views
Goddamn, do I hate Miller roles. - 31/01/2010 12:39:32 AM 1775 Views
Well, I'm back... - 31/01/2010 01:43:17 AM 1650 Views
Why do fencers keep appearing without me knowing of it?!? - 31/01/2010 02:48:22 AM 1678 Views
Sabre... - 31/01/2010 03:18:12 AM 1676 Views
HELL YEAH! - 31/01/2010 08:39:52 AM 1697 Views
Oh, and I had my first real tournament today... - 31/01/2010 03:23:45 AM 1686 Views
Huzzah! - 31/01/2010 04:41:02 AM 1658 Views
How about a club with a nail in it? - 31/01/2010 05:50:18 AM 1649 Views
Eh. Just don't listen to Issac too much. - 31/01/2010 04:47:53 AM 1646 Views
I wanna say F-T, just cause I hate Millers. - 31/01/2010 05:10:07 AM 1576 Views
But do you think a DF would try something that DFs already did in the game we just played? - 31/01/2010 05:53:24 AM 1654 Views
And on a third hand... - 31/01/2010 07:00:22 AM 1725 Views
So... back to neutral. *NM* - 31/01/2010 03:27:58 PM 859 Views
You don't find that statement dubious? - 31/01/2010 04:14:47 PM 1646 Views
Yeah, that's a bit fishy. *NM* - 31/01/2010 04:18:17 PM 894 Views
Yeah it is... - 31/01/2010 04:55:29 PM 1724 Views
You make a fair point. - 31/01/2010 04:38:44 PM 1693 Views
I knew Yunalseca was a Darkfriend... - 31/01/2010 07:17:33 PM 1610 Views
Everyone! Deep breaths... - 31/01/2010 11:50:39 PM 1624 Views
That's a pretty big thing to forget though. - 01/02/2010 01:39:44 AM 1609 Views
Re: That's a pretty big thing to forget though. - 01/02/2010 01:59:16 AM 1621 Views
Who said anything about forgetting? - 01/02/2010 02:53:49 AM 1656 Views
It brings you protection from guilty Cop results. *NM* - 01/02/2010 03:01:22 AM 1024 Views
And among that, - 01/02/2010 04:54:26 AM 1732 Views
No... - 01/02/2010 06:25:07 AM 1659 Views
Man... I hate defending people I'm not sure about - 01/02/2010 07:14:13 AM 1668 Views
I agree with beet here. - 01/02/2010 07:42:12 AM 1618 Views
Offer alternatives then - 01/02/2010 11:18:47 AM 1663 Views
I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games - 01/02/2010 02:23:26 PM 1647 Views
Oh, that's what you're talking about. *NM* - 01/02/2010 12:27:30 PM 917 Views
I agree, more or less - 31/01/2010 05:55:11 AM 1676 Views
Re: I agree, more or less - 31/01/2010 03:34:10 PM 1689 Views
Tracker is a role that sees who his target performs a Night Action on... - 31/01/2010 03:49:24 PM 1552 Views
Idk what all this talk about a Tracker is over. - 31/01/2010 04:17:17 PM 1589 Views
I was the one who said it. - 31/01/2010 04:39:53 PM 1664 Views
Re: I agree, more or less - 31/01/2010 04:19:33 PM 1627 Views
Re: I agree, more or less - 31/01/2010 07:41:07 PM 1637 Views
That's a standard Miller. - 31/01/2010 07:46:33 PM 1650 Views
The reason people say I should die... - 31/01/2010 07:40:38 PM 1741 Views
I don't think Gher made a lot of changes. - 31/01/2010 04:23:42 PM 1720 Views
Eh. I think this is going to end like Hopper. - 31/01/2010 11:58:52 PM 1635 Views
What I don't like is the fact that Millers are often not told they're Millers. - 01/02/2010 12:08:14 AM 1644 Views
Well, he could still be Mafia and have appropriate flavor. - 01/02/2010 01:46:58 AM 1654 Views
I'm just trying to take everything into account. - 01/02/2010 02:33:15 AM 1643 Views
I know, I'm just sayin' *NM* - 01/02/2010 02:53:31 AM 929 Views
We can't just lynch Isaac on the off chance that he might be a DF. - 31/01/2010 05:42:08 AM 1658 Views
Sure we could - 31/01/2010 05:26:43 PM 1611 Views
Alright, from my reading, - 31/01/2010 10:53:52 PM 1643 Views
I don't think we should reveal numbers yet - 01/02/2010 12:05:07 AM 1503 Views
Yeah, number revelation would probably not be the best thing... - 01/02/2010 12:19:49 AM 1657 Views
RBIRL for the next week or so - 01/02/2010 01:08:53 AM 1709 Views
RE: I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games (horizontal scroll avoidance) - 01/02/2010 02:46:35 PM 1749 Views
Oh, I totally agree - 01/02/2010 05:07:32 PM 1582 Views
I agree too. - 01/02/2010 05:18:58 PM 1658 Views
I really just meant that I don't think F-T's claim of not knowing about Yuna's claim is - 01/02/2010 06:16:11 PM 1634 Views
* is not enough, typo in above message *NM* - 01/02/2010 06:16:45 PM 1098 Views
You still haven't explained what the purpose of such a lie would be. - 01/02/2010 07:15:35 PM 1601 Views
I think the rationale was this: - 01/02/2010 07:38:41 PM 1551 Views
That's a good breakdown - 01/02/2010 07:58:44 PM 1604 Views
Beg Pardon? - 01/02/2010 08:07:20 PM 1623 Views
Oof, I meant Cop, not tracker - 01/02/2010 08:41:56 PM 1991 Views
It's true, Isaac likes to be a leader, rather than a doer. *NM* - 01/02/2010 11:17:02 PM 931 Views
Coward. *NM* - 01/02/2010 11:17:21 PM 959 Views
LOL, it's not like I twiddle my thumbs Kronin - 02/02/2010 12:53:26 AM 1622 Views
Kidding, kidding. Forgot a *NM* - 02/02/2010 01:25:55 AM 874 Views
Er... what just happened, here? *NM* - 02/02/2010 12:55:51 AM 987 Views
I made a pointless post, decided to turn it into a semi-sarcastic insult. - 02/02/2010 01:27:48 AM 1631 Views
There's not really anything to explain - 01/02/2010 09:20:57 PM 1671 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain - 01/02/2010 10:03:57 PM 1655 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain - 01/02/2010 10:33:49 PM 1707 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain - 01/02/2010 11:11:37 PM 1679 Views
Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me - 02/02/2010 12:01:48 AM 1597 Views
Re: Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me - 02/02/2010 01:15:41 AM 1669 Views
Different situation - 02/02/2010 01:39:15 AM 1698 Views
Re: Different situation - 02/02/2010 04:48:30 AM 1676 Views
What, is the shadow in amador still going? - 02/02/2010 08:09:41 PM 1725 Views
It's very still going. - 03/02/2010 11:41:13 PM 1509 Views
Right, so: A New Target - 01/02/2010 08:03:28 PM 1788 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target - 01/02/2010 08:20:06 PM 1551 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target *NM* - 01/02/2010 08:48:25 PM 868 Views
Message get eaten? *NM* - 01/02/2010 09:21:34 PM 908 Views
Apparantly... It was just a minor thing, lemme see if I remember... - 02/02/2010 12:44:28 AM 1653 Views
Right, so: Defending Myself - 01/02/2010 11:30:38 PM 1744 Views
Accusations should not be mutually exclusive - 01/02/2010 11:50:45 PM 1638 Views
F-T will not disppear, but I feel like that what he wants. - 02/02/2010 12:25:33 AM 1721 Views
Shrug. Someone asked for alternatives, I came up with one - 02/02/2010 12:37:28 AM 1789 Views
RBIRL - 02/02/2010 01:30:41 AM 1537 Views
Hmm...more accusations beyond beet's - 02/02/2010 06:02:51 AM 1598 Views
That's interesting. - 02/02/2010 02:09:52 PM 1654 Views
Re: That's interesting. - 02/02/2010 05:19:47 PM 1603 Views
Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward. - 02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM 1771 Views
Your logic isn't terrible... - 02/02/2010 04:54:54 PM 1562 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible... - 02/02/2010 05:42:43 PM 1634 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible... - 02/02/2010 08:42:27 PM 1716 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible... - 02/02/2010 09:05:29 PM 1607 Views
Oh you mathematicians. - 02/02/2010 09:24:55 PM 1563 Views
Re: The random thing - 02/02/2010 04:59:42 PM 1785 Views
Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate. - 02/02/2010 08:48:19 PM 1740 Views
This is sort of deja vu - 02/02/2010 10:37:57 PM 1693 Views
We need to invent a new role: "Itchy Trigger Finger" - 02/02/2010 11:21:46 PM 1604 Views
Okay, so I've been reading, but I kept meaning to post on my comp. Sorry. - 02/02/2010 06:21:12 AM 1697 Views
I never tried to stop any discussion - 02/02/2010 12:46:54 PM 1679 Views
Kronin is at least as suspicious as Issac, or F-T - 02/02/2010 05:09:56 PM 1657 Views
That's pretty bold claim of intention. - 02/02/2010 05:18:40 PM 1662 Views
Perhaps I meant more that they've picked an inclination? - 02/02/2010 05:50:26 PM 1613 Views
Hmm. - 03/02/2010 09:20:50 PM 1714 Views
Re: Hmm. - 04/02/2010 07:08:35 PM 1665 Views
I don't think we should clear F-T just yet... - 02/02/2010 08:18:22 PM 1677 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar - 03/02/2010 04:36:52 AM 1721 Views
Fair enough, though I think we should give it some more time. - 03/02/2010 05:16:40 AM 1665 Views
What's funny is that at first I thought F-T was voting for YOU - 03/02/2010 07:12:39 AM 1635 Views
Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar - 03/02/2010 03:13:57 PM 1751 Views
Speaking of time... - 03/02/2010 03:28:42 PM 1713 Views
Only if it starts to grind to a halt. *NM* - 03/02/2010 04:50:32 PM 979 Views
Re: Only if it starts to grind to a halt. - 03/02/2010 06:52:54 PM 1725 Views
Yes. - 03/02/2010 07:55:54 PM 1699 Views
Sounds like a good system to me. *NM* - 03/02/2010 09:22:15 PM 936 Views
Those are basically my exact thoughts on the matter as well *NM* - 03/02/2010 09:12:35 PM 961 Views
Er... IS it active? I feel like we've kinda exhausted everything - 03/02/2010 11:19:29 PM 1587 Views
Hahaha. well, it was! - 04/02/2010 12:59:13 AM 1585 Views
Unless that's what he wants us to think... *NM* - 04/02/2010 01:06:43 AM 893 Views
Exactly. - 04/02/2010 01:20:54 AM 1684 Views
"No lynch" is a bad idea. At the very least, let's lynch someone random *NM* - 04/02/2010 04:07:00 AM 939 Views
So you'd rather lynch someone random over F-T? Why? - 04/02/2010 04:35:40 AM 1696 Views
Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF - 04/02/2010 06:58:15 AM 1672 Views
Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF - 04/02/2010 07:07:37 AM 1540 Views
Well, yeah- a chance of getting a DF is better than no chance at all - 04/02/2010 07:04:27 PM 1619 Views
But there is a chance F-T is a DF. - 04/02/2010 07:34:37 PM 1617 Views
Fair enough... - 04/02/2010 07:49:26 PM 1604 Views
I agree with D_K actually - 04/02/2010 08:32:09 PM 1710 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar - 04/02/2010 09:42:01 PM 1657 Views
Hah! Time-delayed RCs, I love it *NM* - 04/02/2010 11:17:35 PM 923 Views
You think F-T has less than a 29% (4/14) chance to be a DF? - 04/02/2010 08:55:34 PM 1553 Views
If a given random person is 30%, then yes, I think F-T is 29% or less - 04/02/2010 11:20:26 PM 1650 Views
Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF - 04/02/2010 08:29:03 PM 1563 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar - 04/02/2010 08:58:16 PM 1664 Views
Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar - 04/02/2010 09:28:09 PM 1544 Views
I regret that I have only one life to give to the Light... - 04/02/2010 11:00:56 PM 1659 Views
You know, you're still at L-3. - 04/02/2010 11:14:40 PM 1844 Views
L-2, as it were. - 04/02/2010 11:41:10 PM 1609 Views
Just had to make me incorrect? - 04/02/2010 11:55:02 PM 1573 Views
I couldn't resist. *NM* - 05/02/2010 01:07:59 AM 923 Views
- 05/02/2010 01:15:51 AM 1688 Views
Well, neither Bergioyn or Blaine have weighed in for a while. - 05/02/2010 01:38:05 AM 1666 Views
Mafia > schooling. - 05/02/2010 01:42:17 AM 1589 Views
No, it's actually L-1 - 05/02/2010 03:17:32 AM 1817 Views
Wrong again. - 05/02/2010 03:23:29 AM 1626 Views
Yeah, but I wasn't sure if I'd still be alive next time I came around . - 05/02/2010 03:12:19 AM 1610 Views
- 05/02/2010 12:20:04 AM 1680 Views
I don't anyone will target you with a night action tonight, frankly. - 05/02/2010 03:14:26 AM 1645 Views
Fanatic-Templar has been lynched. - 05/02/2010 03:54:43 AM 1706 Views
I want to say one non-game related thing - 07/02/2010 06:21:40 PM 1638 Views

Reply to Message