Whom shall we commence our blood orgy with?
That could be construed as volunteering
And since I came up with the idea, I get to be high priest
Really, at this point the only thing we have to go by is posting. Is there anyone who's only posted once or twice, and then faded away to let us pick someone to murder?
Don't know, I've more or less decided we'll end up picking someone randomly or go for a no lynch, this is why I prefer games that have some visible intro or clues, gives you something to talk about, and even red herrings often produce useful info. I'm guessing there is something along these lines, but probably set to trigger later in the game. The use of MPD # was clearly deliberate, but as useful clue or red herring? Well, we'll see, Gher said it was RAFO, so it probably will not be a red herring.
We can hit the less active players, maybe make a list of a few, and demand info, but that will either force a role out or result in a vanilla claim, which will either be bogus or let the DFs narrow one more person of their NK list. Though I'm guessing I'm tonights prefered target, which ironically means I'll probably live since they'll assume a good chance the doc will protect me, especially since the doc will be assuming the cop will investigate me and won't want the investigaiton wasted... ah the joys of being public enemy #1... probably takes me of the lynch list for today, since everyone can basically wait till tomorrow with certain knowledge I'll either be dead or copped.
I'd strike Hobo off the list too, he was the first to post MPD and that's a big risk for a DF, and Hobo isn't known for being a wild risk taker, albeit it as MPD #14 in a game of 14 players it wasn't much of a risk, had it been someone with a number 4 or lower, then yes I'd have said it cleared them. My own number is midrange, high enough I could guess everyone might have MPD 1-14, but low enough I couldn't know if maybe only townies had it. HAd he been MPD 2, well, then he might not know if maybe 'mafia player designator' might mean 'mafia player, designator' i.e. you are mafia 2, your DF allies are 1, 2, 4, whatever.
Anyone after that had no real gamble to make, and I suppose is actually a little suspect. The DFs might be expected to rush to cofirm MPD, non-town usually tends to fear getting trapped and wait for some answers, then try to jump on the credibility wagon as fast as possible.
We can probably clear DK temporarily too, she was the first to confirm having an acronym and had every reason to think, considering the source, that she might be stepping into some trap of mine if she were a DF, I think she'd have waited for someone else to try the waters if she were one. None of this is anywhere near proof of innocence, but it's an indicator, and it is all we have and all we will have until we at least stick someone on the boilerplate. Whatver we go with, well, it's likely to be random or darn near, and so it will probably be a townie, I'm actually kinda leery of cutting anymore off the list, though it's easier to pick random off 10 using the timestamp, just because the DFs would probably be able to shift some of themselves off the suspect list, then the random odds are likely to be worse than flat random of all players. I feel pretty safe pulling Hobo and DK off. If we want to go with ten, we can maybe randomly generate 3 players and pair down from amongst them, pretty good odds one will be a DF. Maybe we select someone to 'ref' and exclude them, and they'd be the one who posts three times (repeating for repats if it happens), maybe select the townie MVP from last game or something for that end. We can also just throw all 14 of us on their and select 4 people, we can randomize using the last two digits of a timestamp, everyone gets a number, aplabetical, 1-14. So 1-14, 15-28, etc, 'reroll' 57-00? We can also cut lower than ten, just reroll 0's for 9 nominees, 0 and 9 for 8 players, etc. But again, the more we cut the list down, the more we leave the DFs room to wiggle one or more of their people out of it. I would insist on more than 1 selectee, I don't like the idea of randomly selecting people for guaranteed execution, if you're 1 of 3 or 4 you can still have a very good chance at defending yourself.
Well, that's my take, and I hate to say it but we should probably decide if we want to go this way and execute the plan fairly quickly if yes, I can't see anything useful popping up between now and twilight otherwise. I also don't like 'no lynch' in a game this size, because we're simply too likely to have 2 NKs, and 2 kills is way too much to risk for whatever info our roles might provide during the night. In all likelihood, it will probably be a townie lynch and 2 NKs, but at least we'll have a decent chance at getting a DF and we'll have a vote record
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafo Mafia 4: Day 1 has ended.
27/01/2010 05:53:50 PM
- 3181 Views
This is a confirmation of the prompt receival of said role message.
27/01/2010 08:30:45 PM
- 1303 Views
You made it up
27/01/2010 09:01:31 PM
- 1259 Views
Hmm ...
27/01/2010 09:21:59 PM
- 1349 Views
Ha.
28/01/2010 01:28:27 AM
- 1186 Views
It sounds like a real word.
28/01/2010 01:55:58 AM
- 1274 Views
You know, I'm still irritated we haven't been able to come up with a good R1 system
28/01/2010 07:08:22 AM
- 1227 Views
Well, lacking anything else...
28/01/2010 11:58:25 PM
- 1391 Views
I haven't the faintest idea what they mean.
29/01/2010 01:30:19 AM
- 1306 Views
Not really
29/01/2010 02:27:05 AM
- 1341 Views
Let's try something
29/01/2010 02:47:30 AM
- 1254 Views
alrighty then
29/01/2010 03:29:51 AM
- 1314 Views
That's sufficient, thanks
29/01/2010 03:48:11 AM
- 1171 Views
Yea, my message has all that.
29/01/2010 03:56:52 AM
- 1325 Views
Probably
29/01/2010 04:10:42 AM
- 1239 Views
Re: Probably
29/01/2010 07:30:48 AM
- 1194 Views
True- most DFs would wait a bit, and be like the 4th or 5th to jump in
29/01/2010 08:19:43 AM
- 1256 Views
I've got MPD
29/01/2010 04:22:00 AM
- 1284 Views
Surprise, surprise: I do too.
29/01/2010 06:21:04 AM
- 1243 Views
Remember when we killed the Serial Killer on Day 1? That was fun. Let's do that! *NM*
29/01/2010 08:20:24 AM
- 776 Views
I have MPD and number under 14. *NM*
29/01/2010 06:18:59 AM
- 847 Views
I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:14:17 AM
- 1251 Views
Re: I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:27:53 AM
- 1231 Views
High priests cannot be sacrificed!
30/01/2010 04:53:38 PM
- 1178 Views
Some cultures, they make the best sacrifices
30/01/2010 05:47:46 PM
- 1270 Views
I want to roleclaim.
30/01/2010 07:08:11 PM
- 1244 Views
That is, well, surprising
30/01/2010 08:28:04 PM
- 1322 Views
Yeah, but I think it's best to do it now.
30/01/2010 09:38:49 PM
- 1198 Views
Hm. I wonder if we're all robots inside of a Mafia simulator. *NM*
30/01/2010 11:20:25 PM
- 721 Views
Well, I'm back...
31/01/2010 01:43:17 AM
- 1251 Views
Why do fencers keep appearing without me knowing of it?!?
31/01/2010 02:48:22 AM
- 1270 Views
Oh, and I had my first real tournament today...
31/01/2010 03:23:45 AM
- 1276 Views
Eh. Just don't listen to Issac too much.
31/01/2010 04:47:53 AM
- 1229 Views
I wanna say F-T, just cause I hate Millers.
31/01/2010 05:10:07 AM
- 1210 Views
But do you think a DF would try something that DFs already did in the game we just played?
31/01/2010 05:53:24 AM
- 1249 Views
And on a third hand...
31/01/2010 07:00:22 AM
- 1323 Views
So... back to neutral. *NM*
31/01/2010 03:27:58 PM
- 676 Views
You don't find that statement dubious?
31/01/2010 04:14:47 PM
- 1231 Views
I knew Yunalseca was a Darkfriend...
31/01/2010 07:17:33 PM
- 1210 Views
Everyone! Deep breaths...
31/01/2010 11:50:39 PM
- 1222 Views
That's a pretty big thing to forget though.
01/02/2010 01:39:44 AM
- 1197 Views
Who said anything about forgetting?
01/02/2010 02:53:49 AM
- 1265 Views
It brings you protection from guilty Cop results. *NM*
01/02/2010 03:01:22 AM
- 854 Views
No...
01/02/2010 06:25:07 AM
- 1253 Views
Man... I hate defending people I'm not sure about
01/02/2010 07:14:13 AM
- 1246 Views
I agree with beet here.
01/02/2010 07:42:12 AM
- 1218 Views
Offer alternatives then
01/02/2010 11:18:47 AM
- 1264 Views
I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games
01/02/2010 02:23:26 PM
- 1256 Views
I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 05:55:11 AM
- 1289 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 03:34:10 PM
- 1289 Views
Tracker is a role that sees who his target performs a Night Action on...
31/01/2010 03:49:24 PM
- 1141 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 04:19:33 PM
- 1217 Views
Eh. I think this is going to end like Hopper.
31/01/2010 11:58:52 PM
- 1222 Views
What I don't like is the fact that Millers are often not told they're Millers.
01/02/2010 12:08:14 AM
- 1246 Views
Well, he could still be Mafia and have appropriate flavor.
01/02/2010 01:46:58 AM
- 1244 Views
We can't just lynch Isaac on the off chance that he might be a DF.
31/01/2010 05:42:08 AM
- 1238 Views
Alright, from my reading,
31/01/2010 10:53:52 PM
- 1245 Views
RE: I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games (horizontal scroll avoidance)
01/02/2010 02:46:35 PM
- 1346 Views
I really just meant that I don't think F-T's claim of not knowing about Yuna's claim is
01/02/2010 06:16:11 PM
- 1224 Views
You still haven't explained what the purpose of such a lie would be.
01/02/2010 07:15:35 PM
- 1189 Views
I think the rationale was this:
01/02/2010 07:38:41 PM
- 1156 Views
Beg Pardon?
01/02/2010 08:07:20 PM
- 1220 Views
It's true, Isaac likes to be a leader, rather than a doer. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:02 PM
- 747 Views
Coward. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:21 PM
- 779 Views
Er... what just happened, here? *NM*
02/02/2010 12:55:51 AM
- 817 Views
I made a pointless post, decided to turn it into a semi-sarcastic insult.
02/02/2010 01:27:48 AM
- 1222 Views
There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 09:20:57 PM
- 1224 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:03:57 PM
- 1236 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:33:49 PM
- 1304 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 11:11:37 PM
- 1268 Views
Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 12:01:48 AM
- 1197 Views
Re: Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 01:15:41 AM
- 1244 Views
Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:03:28 PM
- 1386 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:20:06 PM
- 1164 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target *NM*
01/02/2010 08:48:25 PM
- 682 Views
Message get eaten? *NM*
01/02/2010 09:21:34 PM
- 726 Views
Apparantly... It was just a minor thing, lemme see if I remember...
02/02/2010 12:44:28 AM
- 1245 Views
Right, so: Defending Myself
01/02/2010 11:30:38 PM
- 1335 Views
Hmm...more accusations beyond beet's
02/02/2010 06:02:51 AM
- 1196 Views
Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward.
02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM
- 1355 Views
Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 04:54:54 PM
- 1148 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 05:42:43 PM
- 1207 Views
Re: The random thing
02/02/2010 04:59:42 PM
- 1379 Views
Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 08:48:19 PM
- 1329 Views
Re: Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 09:23:43 PM
- 1225 Views
Okay, so I've been reading, but I kept meaning to post on my comp. Sorry.
02/02/2010 06:21:12 AM
- 1268 Views
I never tried to stop any discussion
02/02/2010 12:46:54 PM
- 1255 Views
Like I said, I don't find it very suspicious, but it was just something I had seen.
02/02/2010 11:14:53 PM
- 1266 Views
Kronin is at least as suspicious as Issac, or F-T
02/02/2010 05:09:56 PM
- 1242 Views
That's pretty bold claim of intention.
02/02/2010 05:18:40 PM
- 1225 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 04:36:52 AM
- 1310 Views
Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 03:13:57 PM
- 1342 Views
Speaking of time...
03/02/2010 03:28:42 PM
- 1290 Views
Only if it starts to grind to a halt. *NM*
03/02/2010 04:50:32 PM
- 802 Views
Re: Only if it starts to grind to a halt.
03/02/2010 06:52:54 PM
- 1302 Views
Er... IS it active? I feel like we've kinda exhausted everything
03/02/2010 11:19:29 PM
- 1167 Views
Hahaha. well, it was!
04/02/2010 12:59:13 AM
- 1182 Views
"No lynch" is a bad idea. At the very least, let's lynch someone random *NM*
04/02/2010 04:07:00 AM
- 738 Views
Everybody knows my perspective on no lynches...or at least I suspect they do. *NM*
04/02/2010 04:09:17 AM
- 798 Views
So you'd rather lynch someone random over F-T? Why?
04/02/2010 04:35:40 AM
- 1293 Views
Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 06:58:15 AM
- 1259 Views
Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 07:07:37 AM
- 1146 Views
Well, yeah- a chance of getting a DF is better than no chance at all
04/02/2010 07:04:27 PM
- 1240 Views
But there is a chance F-T is a DF.
04/02/2010 07:34:37 PM
- 1198 Views
Fair enough...
04/02/2010 07:49:26 PM
- 1196 Views
I agree with D_K actually
04/02/2010 08:32:09 PM
- 1279 Views
You think F-T has less than a 29% (4/14) chance to be a DF?
04/02/2010 08:55:34 PM
- 1161 Views
If a given random person is 30%, then yes, I think F-T is 29% or less
04/02/2010 11:20:26 PM
- 1245 Views
I regret that I have only one life to give to the Light...
04/02/2010 11:00:56 PM
- 1263 Views
You know, you're still at L-3.
04/02/2010 11:14:40 PM
- 1428 Views
L-2, as it were.
04/02/2010 11:41:10 PM
- 1211 Views
Just had to make me incorrect?
04/02/2010 11:55:02 PM
- 1176 Views
I couldn't resist. *NM*
05/02/2010 01:07:59 AM
- 746 Views
05/02/2010 01:15:51 AM
- 1278 Views
Yeah, but I wasn't sure if I'd still be alive next time I came around .
05/02/2010 03:12:19 AM
- 1197 Views
05/02/2010 12:20:04 AM
- 1286 Views
I don't anyone will target you with a night action tonight, frankly.
05/02/2010 03:14:26 AM
- 1242 Views